maybe I didn't ask the right question. if the models were worse, were mets better at making more accurate frcsts with what they had? the other thing i'm not considering which speaks to your 2nd point is that in the "old" days (1990-2015) models didn't pick up on storms way out there (right?) and mets were working within a storm range of say 96hr, so those storms, if they panned out would make it seem the frcsts were better back then. it just seems we've spoiled ourselves with models that extend beyond 300hr, so one can get a lot of disappointment if what they're tracking doesn't work out. maybe i'm just babling, but was trying to make more sense of it to a weather weenie like me