Lava Rock

75" is approx climo. I should have been more clear when I said <75". I'll predict we get ~60". And while that is still just a bit under climo, it pales in comparison to the good years we've had. We've been spoiled overall.

Trailers north

break out the genneys

I'm ramping up the bitch machine slowly as my patience is starting to wear thin. So we basically wipe most of the pack this wknd, then return to avg/above ave temps next week without any storm threats. So that's two straight wknds without getting on my sled. Skiing will be shot for this wknd. too. By the time we get the pack back and things are rideable again, it'll be almost Feb. Every year we lose at least 1 month between Dec-Mar with shit weather. Seems like this season we'll be pushing it beyond that. I'm sticking to mhy prediction this winter is a ratter. Check out my sig. Every 4 years we get a ratter. I know there's hardly any data to make that conclusion, so I'll rely on my gut and say we finish this season with <75".

Such a nice wintry appeal out there. Had we gotten the storm we thought we were going to get, we'd be in solid shape. Instead it's gonna get wiped out by the weekend.

Panic Room check in?

Very true.

SN. 23.2f.

Well Iran has launched some missiles. We'll see where this goes...

I should have clarified the "changeover". Local met was talking about potential for ZR/IP. Doesn't really matter. I was hoping/praying for a net neutral on the current snowpack, but it's clear we're heading for a substantial reduction in the meager pack.

So is the Sat rn event before any changeover going to be 50f+ with high dews and fog eating SW winds?

this would be great if that's how it pans out. just wish the weds storm would produce.

Why bother debating 40s vs 50s. It blows either way.

1.5"

SN. 34.5f

Lovely Jan day. Rn showers, 37.8f. feels and looks like late March

8-12". lock it in

I'm alright with that. Adds a little liquid to the pack.

Hey are we long lost brothers? I could have written this

then why not fall back to the lower res modeling as it seems it has better accuracy for predicting where/how much an event will produce. Do we have too much data at our fingertips that it ends up hurting us?

thanks. makes sense to the extent I can understand your explanation.

Can you explain this? Seems counter intuitive. If there is greater detail, shouldn't there be less variability?

the models are terrible. Yesterday SNE was poised for rn while NNE was 6+". Now SNE 4-8" while NNE gets grazed.

I can start complaining if it'll help. Seems to work sometimes

Everything and the kitchen sink