BristowWx
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Everything posted by BristowWx
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Christmas miracle look hour 384 on GFS at 6z
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Most impressive HH run. This thing may have legs after all. Deeper and colder. Wow.
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guilty as charged. I'll blame it on my gluten issue...it makes me say things repeatedly...I'm not allergic to gluten or anything...I just have an issue with it.
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Are you sure? I can say it a different way and add a less cute self depreciating comment.
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I still see the closed contour high near Greenland...a touch less strong and a touch further east than the 18z money run yesterday....I assume I can use the op for this as we are close to 00z Monday 23 Nov which is the time I am looking at for my own reference...but point well taken how long does it last because with that -PNA it just serves to prevent a lava flow in the east...that's what those extreme red colors look like to me on the temp anomaly maps...molten lava
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Once we actually see the -NAO materialize it will go a long way to bolster confidence. Bob said 4-5 days. So Monday. I can wait.
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Yes. You are correct sir. It’s been a painful run. Last year nearly killed me. Actually my tombstone says died in 2019...so not nearly..just dead
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I’m a believer now. Remove that feature with that -PNA depicted on 18z at h5 and we could cook our turkey on the sidewalk.
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If it wasn’t for the -NAO the East would burst into flames with that h5 look..
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I could see your area getting something..just not cold enough but who knows
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Just looking at the 850 anomaly for T-day looks solidly chilly based on the GEFS...at 198hrs...that is my short term focus right now. h5 looks so interesting to me also at 198hrs yet the surface is not.
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Wait a minute...that’s T-day...ok we’ll take it. Lots more runs to go
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I am again liking the progression for Thanksgiving if nothing else but to avoid AN temps. And avoid turning on AC
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Thanks for the confirmation. That works ok. I was thinking incoming torch simply because if that cutter storm winds up..well you know the rest. But maybe we avoid it...still 8 days..wont get married to any solution
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Op Euro doesn’t look nearly as warm on Turkey day as the GFS. Just something I noticed compared to even 0z. But I am looking at crappy h5 plots on TT
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I would not be surprised to se another drastic change in the ensembles. I was flipping back through the last few days and it’s like seeing op run solutions 10 days out. Glad I am not a natural gas trader.
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We get through a less than perfect first two weeks Dec and then a flip when it starts to count..glass half full weenie logic.
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Seeing some widely variable op run solutions for Thanksgiving so it might be 45 or 70...raining or sunny.. deep creek should be an excellent location regardless.
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Yes because I imagine a warm Wednesday leading into it under that scenario until the front passes...windy too...but we are still 9 days out so not sold on any idea just yet
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is that the 27th or 28th? Yes, I can count but wondering if 10 days includes today. Thanks Yoda!
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Agree on all points. Back in October I thought first freeze wouldn't be until December especially at DCA and couldn't imagine what a cold day would feel like again.
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I can also imagine a scenario where a brief but potent warm temp day before thksgvng....just based on what is either a strong cold front or developing rainstorm...if that comes to fruition. I have now seen it on CMC and GFS op runs...but who knows. still 10 days out
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Yes exactly. I hadn’t thought of it from that angle but makes total sense.
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The final chapter of this winter story has not been written. Safe travels back from AZ.
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From what I can see from the EPS at h5 it looks like Greenland area looks good with high pressure. The trough is in the middle of CONUS...that’s at 240. All I can see
