BristowWx
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Everything posted by BristowWx
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The truth is 0z could bring total destruction. Even the best analysis is only as good as the data being analyzed. No one will reassure you. We are all alone on this wretched journey called winter where despair and peril lurk around every 6 hour corner.
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24-36 hours ago things looked so bleak. The turnaround is nothing short of miracle. Let’s hope it’s not a mirage.
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I am sure it does. Almost sure. It also has lower heights in NE. Just a data point.
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CMC remains the coldest for Xmas (40s) with GFS (50s) the warmest. Euro looks in the middle (50). Its the only thing of interest for that particular day so I continue to look at it.
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17.6 when I departed for work. The grass is now olive drab in my yard and the dog doodles are frozen. These are a few of my favorite things.
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Split flow...hopefully were on the right side. That is one unusual looking map Is that feature a WAR? Or is it too far removed.
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Does the EPS also look ok?
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I’d take that and run. AN precip and EC but nearly low percentage BN in January? Break out the bubbly
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What’s missing thankfully from that GEFS h5 plot above is that deep San Diego trough. Not sure any amount of Atlantic blocking can mute that feature.
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So the op GFS likes that time too..early Jan...HH is back boys and girls
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I just spun through 240h on Euro Hi-res on Pivotal. glass half empty is no winter weather to speak of...but glass half full for some at least is I see no evidence of torch temps looking at 2m in our subforum. now the central US is another story with temps. so you are correct. just trying to find some positive.
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The Canadian looks colder on Xmas Eve/Xmas than the GFS. not sure why exactly, more CAD perhaps, or if it has a cold bias. just thought it was noteworthy.
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at quick glance it appears the GEFS has both 850 and 2m temp anomalies above normal at various levels from roughly 96h to 384h east of the Mississippi.
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No you are correct. I also grew up in South Jersey. If you were on the wrong side of the GSP then forget it. Maybe the 0z runs will be kind. We won’t believe whatever it shows anyway.
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You called it a while ago and it was a tough pill to swallow. But you had optimism when it was warranted and kept emotions to a minimum while babysitting weenies. No one could ask for more. Thanks for being a class act.
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Enjoy every flake sir for both of us. I can’t say for sure when there will be more.
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Looking at the 18z GEFS h5 from a novice view I see nothing but the same. Trough west ridge East. Temps never really get cold. Some ridging into AK. But if that’s our guide we have a long wait. Yeah what Bob said.
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right. just thought it was notable compared to 0z with the placement of the low.
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I saw that. 120h was in quite a different location over inland SC
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6z GFS looks less optimistic about these temps. looks like a GLL messes things up. closer to 60 than 40 on that run.
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Temps as depicted are spot average I believe for the forum for Dec 25th. The previous day is above but still not too bad. Silver lining. 70s would be less than perfect.
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Sunny 43, at my house feels like 60...clouds and East wind 43 feels like 43. Probably not easily discernible from the model run. More curiosity on my part.
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I wonder what the sky conditions are? Obviously some CAD there. Is it a cloudy 40 or sunny 40?
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Just op run I know but that is some spiked cold end of Dec/early Jan. Nice to see it.
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I feel like we have had more mega of mega torches in the past than what is modeled now. This doesn’t look like a mega torch. AN sure and no snow certainly but not 70s. That’s my benchmark for mega.
