I completely agree with you—it’s uncommon to see a setup like this in a cold ENSO year, and the similarities to 1996 are hard to ignore, as it’s like a 1 in 100 chance. The potential is definitely there for something big, and I’m encouraged too, but I know that even the best patterns don’t always deliver. I really hate cold and dry. There’s also a February 2024 flop possibility, though it looks more unlikely than Feb 2024 did.
This isn’t something to dismiss as a fluke. The models have had their grips strengthen when it comes to cold and snow. Guidance is showing these promising signs. It’d be prudent to accept the possibility of a swing and a miss, but I do think cautious optimism is good. I’m definitely keeping a close eye on how things evolve. It could be something memorable if it all comes together. Maybe we can even get the three feet of snow Terpeast mentions.