bncho

The Holy Wheel will decide your fates.

Spin this wheel to see how much snow we'll get on Jan 8-10. The first one to post what they got is the event that will happen. https://wheelofnames.com/7e6-e9z

Please send the map.

Snowstorm on the 9th for the GFS. Always nice to see the OPs reflect the ensembles.

Stop panicking, y'all. You can't live run by run from the OPs. That's a recipe for disaster. Check the ensembles. Though the ensembles show dryness, gambling on precip has a much higher ROI than gambling on cold. Sure, it'd be depressing if we don't get an inch of snow but look at the upcoming pattern - it's the best in years. Even if we do just get cold it shows that this area still can have a winter. Think about the torch December was expected to be. Now we finish somewhat normal in temperatures. I think NYC almost got 3" of snow as well! Stop nitpicking, appreciate the pattern, and once we're 120 hours from the 4th then we can get worried if we don't see snow.

I would take a miss on 1/4 for a HECS or BECS on 1/8-10.

Models haven't kicked the can, rather, they've been showing a stronger and stronger signal. GEFS was apparently on crack for a few days but it actually got its act together. Everything is in the right place at the right time. MJO will be in phase 7-8-1, -EPO, -AO, -NAO, +PNA (and guidance has its axis more west). I mean, I'm not saying it'll be a historic January by any means, but surely we can get at least one 3-5" event. Maybe we can even get a SECS or a MECS if we are lucky. This could be our best January in a while. No shit the blinds in sight for a good couple of weeks. EPS signal for 4th: EPS signal for 8th-9th: GEFS signal for 4th: GEFS signal for 8th-9th:

The only time DCA got above 17.8 inches. That's how it was truly epic.

It's good that we have a good pattern upcoming for January. It stops everybody from fighting. We aren't arguing about superficial things. We're having a friendly discussion of what were the best snowstorms. If we get lucky we could get a MECS! Euro AI shows something like a Mid-Atlantic slider. Temperatures shouldn't be an issue.

Pivotal says there'll be mainly snow. Also, be glad - 200hrs out is MUCH better than 384hrs.

Genuine Question: What's a BECS?

Having a SECS would be better than having SECS.

A trend in the right direction. When has this ever happened?

Boy, wouldn’t an ice storm be fun right after?

That’s the first good run of the GFS OP in a damn year.

Praying the EPS is right.

Let me just clarify: You’re saying that the pattern isn’t the issue, it’s just an issue of we’re too warm?

Stop saying the facts, I’m getting Feb 2024 PTSD right now.

GFS has been screwing us over lately. Hopefully the one of the MECS/HECS Euro runs can come true.

It’s not WRONG to say that, but when they go and see yesterday’s 12z Euro and are saying it’ll be a historic January, then they become TITs.

Shit. Everybody’s hype so it’s going to look really damn good and then all the ensembles are going to collapse on New Year’s eve.

330 hrs

Another hit from the Euro AI that may briefly mix with rain or sleet in DC and SE areas. 312 hrs out.

A swing and a hit from the Euro AI.

Models are calling for a major East Coast blizzard, man! Direct Weather is an inspiration to everybody. Lighten up!