bncho

GFS is a slight tick NW but the big thing I saw was that precipitation totals were almost doubled due to the Baja low moving slightly more east.

Man that GFS was close... Maybe by 0z...

GFS gets snow up into the region hr 126...

The AI-GFS is like 8-12" of snow for us with no mixing issues whatsoever. Hell yeah baby.

AI GFS more breathing room, no ice issues whatsoever. Good run!

GFS AI is going to be less icy.. otherwise IDK

Yeah, at hr 120 that baja low is having a hard time coming east

ok, at 102 it looks like the baja low is stsaying back a little bit more? might help it show a more snowy solution instead of icy

AI GFS looks pretty similar at hr 90.

That's a fair point. I would say it's probably more of a gradient in that respect, and separating them into two different categories is likely an overgeneralization. Thanks for pointing it out!

poor ralph doesn't know about the scoreboard system but knows about gooning

12z Suite Scoreboard >4" vs <4" scoreboard (Euro = 5, Euro AI = 5, GFS AI = 4, GFS = 3, CMC = 2, UKMET = 1, ICON = 1) DC: 0-1, less than 4" leads Baltimore: 0 - 1, less than 4" leads

It's a modest hit. Much better than 0z.

Man, in a few years, I would absolutely LOVE for you to be my teacher. That would be amazing.

Alright, Randy. Start us off. What's the ICON doing?

Ben Noll being optimistic now lol

It's surprisingly consistent for an operational model. And yeah, it's shifting north, but it sure as hell is better than the GFS.

Euro AI: our savior, strong and unwavering

Why is that?

Well then, FWIW, the Google WeatherNEXT showed a very Euro-AI like solution

Do any of yall have any idea what the Google WeatherNEXT is? Apparently its verification scores are up there with the Euro and Euro AI, but I've never heard about it until joining SouthernWX.

This winter storm will be a pivotal moment in modeling history. It's the AI models (apparently Google's AI, WeatherNEXT, showed an Euro AI solution after being slightly south) vs the physics models. This storm could change our perspective of current modeling—we may crown a new king.

It's on WxBELL.

I'm too young to be looking at porn...

There are two possible outcomes for this event: 1. A major ice storm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north get a major snowstorm. (Euro AI, UKMET, GFS AI, Euro) 2. A major snowstorm affects southern CAD zones, and DC and points north receive little to nothing. (GFS, CMC) What do we know of each model? The Euro AI is often locked onto an event inside D5 and is often deadly inside that range, but can be locked onto an incorrect solution, only to fold 48 hours before the event (credit to @high risk). It also often has a QPF bias. The Euro often tends to overamp low pressure systems, but it also tends to hold back energy in the Baja. It also often has a QPF bias. The GFS tends to show more suppressive, progressive solutions, and often tends to verify NW. The CMC has a major cold bias, and tends to overdo Arctic HPs. It also, generally, has a suppressive bias, but it is less prominent than the GFS. The UKMET tends to struggle on thermals, often being too warm. It also tends to overamp systems. Since the GFS AI is new, I don't know much about it. Although more operational models (that I'm aware of; I have no idea what Google's model outputs) support the northern solution, ensembles have been trending colder and snowier towards the southern solution over the last 24-36 hours. This is why I am skeptical to declare victory for the northern solution just yet. It would be easy to go with the Euro AI, just because that has been the best performing operational this winter inside D5. However, a major caveat to this is that the upcoming HP may be so anomalous that it hasn't received enough training data to output the correct solution, just due to its inexperience (credit to @WxUSAF). This should be a good test for the AI Euro. Now, it's too early to declare anything, but I am leaning towards the northern solution. 1050 HPs are extremely rare and often overdone in setups like these (credit @Terpeast), and I don't think it'll be able to suppress it enough. However, if a ultra-strong HP does pan out, the Euro AI may have a greater probability of being wrong. Stay tuned...