The 12z Euro is pretty close to something for Jan 13-14. Too warm though for most places other than NYC and points NW, but it does flip over to snow on the back side for NW suburbs.
Models have had such a bias for warm in the east in the medium-long range that it's stupid to believe anything they say regarding warmth in the E US until it's within D5 (and even then they can shift i.e. boxing day 2025).
This is actually a decently good observation. I’d urge caution with believing the models considering how poorly they’ve performed, especially with their warm bias.
Shown below are the GEFS and EPS forecast biases two weeks out over the last 90 days (courtesy of @GaWx). That’s all you need to see.
IMO its riduculous for you to have to be worried about people weenie-ing your post. i dont think you're trying to troll, you are just saying what you think. people can be in denial as much as they want lol
Euro shows a dusting for DC and GFS keeps shifting north every model run. Might be a surprise event and things are trending in that direction. h5 starting to look more conducive for a small event. Let's reel this in.