bncho

Regarding the Oct 31 - Nov 3 system: 12z Euro Ensemble has lots of members give decent snow totals to the mountains, with a handful of members showing some first-of-the-season flakes for the lower elevation people. And don't ask me what panel 20 is doing--but SE wins again lol

adding on to @Terpeast's message above for DCA and BWI... Snowfall @ IAD | DCA | BWI 1995-96: 61.9" | 46.0" | 62.5" 1996-97: 17.8" | 6.7" | 15.3" 2000-01: 12.9" | 7.4" | 8.7" 2008-09: 8.0" | 7.5" | 9.1" 2013-14: 52.8" | 32.0" | 39.0" 2021-22: 15.8" | 13.2" | 14.4" ----- Averages: IAD: 28.2" DCA: 18.8" BWI: 24.8" IAD minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 13.6" DCA minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 8.7" BWI minus 1995-96, 2013-14: 11.9"

what a rarity. the jack zone is actually north of DC!

sign me up for that h5 look in winter!

speaking of the jan 96 blizzard, what happened to that late february storm that prevented something like that from happening? was it just classic nina tendencies? in other words, what went wrong?

How does a cold November with -AO/NAO correlate to winter?

that would be hilarious. our first one should be the 11/11 VD redux.

CFS continues to love the idea of a mid-November coastal bringing us wintry precip.

just to clarify, when you refer to "this shit" (lol), are you referring to the PDO always rising in the fall/winter and falling back down in the spring/summer, or are you referring to the pdo rise right now, and you're saying that the rise can't last forever?

temps are marginal

weenies say there's a signal for an early november coastal lol

The 12z CFS run apparently gives us snow. Even though it doesn't really show it on the precip type maps, it does show it on the snow depth maps. October 13, 2025 officially marks the start of the 2025-26 Digital Snow Thread! Coastal on 11/08: Clipper on 11/10

12 INCH SNOWSTORMS IN DC SINCE 1930 Year Event DCA or IAD ≥12”? 1942 Late March 1942 storm ✅ DCA ~14" 1958 Feb 15–16, 1958 ✅ DCA 14.4" 1966 Jan 29, 1966 ✅ DCA ~12" 1971 Dec 30, 1970 – Jan 1, 1971 ✅ DCA ~15" 1979 Feb 18–19, 1979 (Presidents’ Day) ✅ DCA 18.7" 1996 Jan 6–8, 1996 ✅ DCA 17" / IAD 24" 2003 Feb 16–18, 2003 ✅ DCA 16.4" / IAD 22" 2009 Dec 18–19, 2009 ✅ DCA 16.4" 2010 Feb 5–6, 2010 (“Snowmageddon”) ✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 32" 2016 Jan 22–24, 2016 (“Jonas”) ✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 29" 2026 (?) Jan 14–16, 2026 (?) ✅ DCA 22" / IAD 34" (?)

Well, what did we expect? The Mid-Atlantic is back to the rug pulls and cliff jumpers we know and love!

rename this thread to the holiday weekend debacle, just like Feb 19-20 was lol

fixed

06z GFS and Euro are extremely disappointing, but their ensembles aren’t too bad, albeit a tick slightly east.

GEFS keeps continuing the west trend—great… but where the hell was that last winter?

SUMMARIZING THE 12Z SUITE Globals GFS | IAD: 2-3", DCA: 2-3", BWI: 3-5", RIC: 2-3.5" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide) ECWMF | IAD: 1-1.3", DCA: 1.3-1.8", BWI: 1.5-2.5", RIC: <0.5" EC-AIFS | IAD: <0.15", DCA: <0.2", BWI: <0.2", RIC: 0.2-0.5" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMC/GEM | IAD: 0.5-1", DCA: 1-3", BWI: 2-3", RIC: 0.4-0.7" ICON | IAD: 1-1.6", DCA: 1.3-1.7", BWI: 1.3-1.6", RIC: 1.5-2.5" UKMET | IAD: <0.15", DCA <0.1", BWI: 0.3-0.8", RIC: 0.2-0.5" Ensembles GEFS | IAD: 0.8-1.2", DCA: 1.1-1.5", BWI: 1.3-1.7", RIC: 0.8-1.1" ECWMF Ens | IAD: 0.8-1", DCA: 0.9-1.1", BWI: 1-1.2", RIC: 0.9-1.1" EC-AIFS Ens | IAD: 0.4-0.7", DCA: 0.6-0.8", BWI: 0.7-0.9", RIC: 0.5-0.7" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMCE | IAD: 0.9-1.2", DCA: 1.3-1.6", BWI: 1.6-2", RIC: 0.9-1.2" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide)

12z Euro AI ensemble ticks east similar to it's non-AI counterpart. 1.2" -> 0.9" -> 0.7"

Another tick east by the 12z Euro Ensemble. 1.6" -> 1.3" -> 1.0"

from what i'm reading, the last October Nor'easter was October 29 2011, where IAD got 0.2 inches of snow, and DCA got 0.1!

h this gives a winter vibe. everybody hyped for a storm in a STORM THREAD. hell yeah baby. let's reel this one in!!!!

I feel good about this one. I said that about one hundred times last winter I'm and going to die with it again.

good thing about this is that worst-case still gives us some rain