bncho

likely is like 30% chance, it's relative to the time scale

This is the general flavor of the storm i'm getting right now, if anybody wants to correct me they can go ahead. Scenario 1 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that drops 4"+ of snow. (likely) Scenario 2 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive the brunt of the system and receives <4" of snow. (possible) Scenario 3 — The Mid-Atlantic is impacted by a major winter storm that briefly starts as snow before changing over to sleet and freezing rain. (unlikely) Scenario 4 — The Mid-Atlantic is too far north to receive anything impacts from the system and receives no snow. (very unlikely)

btw if this were kuchera all the snow totals would be more even... around 9-12" for the DMV

omg

genuinely what the fuck

@stormtracker happy (early) MLK day to you as well!

Before then I think we all took it as some sort of joke, but now we take it real serious when it shows something, whether it's the same or different than what other guidance shows.

This also another reason why I'm buying the AI solutions this time around.

Euro would've been pretty good

I, for one, will actually believe the AI solutions for now. Is it because I'm a weenie? Probably a little bit of bias there, but I just feel like in the last two winters, once the Euro AI locks onto a solution it will stay there. I can't say that about the GFS and the Euro that always heartbreaks us.

Central NC has the best signal on the 18z GEFS, about 50% more than DC and Baltimore. This is a decent FWIW tho

18z GEFS trended colder with the heights a little bit lower. We will see what that does to the snowfall projections.

What do you consider the southern MA?

GFS is an awful model, why trust it at 7+ days lololololo

way fucking west so the wave can climb up the coast

Huge FWIW but it's slightly less supressed

we might mix in the metros for a bit, but it's snow mostly

@stormtrackerwhere are ya? GFS is at hour 90!

he basically said that he don't believe the suppression depression

mulch caved finally as well. 32 in mclean

Oh man, I'm getting... ...vibes. Just to make it clear, I am not saying we will fail this time, I am still incredibly optimistic. I'm only making the connection because of the amount of hype we have right now.

I'm gonna quote you on that.

Feb 5-6 2010 is the approximate -1 anniversary of my conception. That means I am a gift from the snow gods. The day I turn 18 is the day we get a BECS. You have been warned.

i wonder what happened a week later...

SN-!