bncho

Okay, this one you'll have to guess based off the output. (for some reason I can't zoom in onto the Mid-Atlantic with this model)

RRFS for what it's worth... can anybody tell me where it comes from?

CMC is still adamant on some ZR to start the event in the metros. temperatures are actually relatively cold at onset, around 27-30

I still have faith. Every model not showing snow is a bad model.

EPS says, "What Dec 5-6 event?"

i couldn't find a metaphor for snow falling, so i had to resort to alternative options

Happy December, everyone! Cold season has begun. There will be heartbreak. There will be despair. But therein lies satisfaction and joy in the quiet crystal dust that falls from the sky. Our first event starts tomorrow (December 2), and while it looks to be a NW special, sit back, relax, and enjoy the show! After all, it's only early December; the precipitation—rain or snow—is much needed to dig out of this drought. Plus, I’m sure we’ll have plenty of chances afterward, if the model guidance for December keeps trending the way it has. The pattern looks active, the indices are aligning, and winter seems eager to take its first real swing. Whether it’s a miss or a direct hit, the ride is just beginning. If I were you, I'd bundle up, check back often, and let’s see what the next wave of guidance brings. Winter has arrived, and it's ready to rumble. Cheers to a cold and snowy start to winter! May the odds be ever in our favor.

CMC decent solution.

Noob vs Pro progression right there guys lol

if taken verbatim, RDPS zr in the metros might be an issue with these temperatures

below freezing and above freezing, almost like 31.8f vs 32.3f

There are some things to like about Dec 5-6 and there are some things not to like about Dec 5-6. The -NAO certainly helps that cold high-pressure in that location, which will promote CAD. However, as modeled, the high is weak, isn't in a great spot, and will retreat east. Therefore, we lose the CAD, hence the flip from snow/ice to ice/rain. Perhaps this will trend colder as models start to take MJO 8 into consideration. It's probably a better overall setup and we've got more things going for this than Dec 2, and there's a decent signal on the EPS. We shall wait and see.

looks like a -AO/NAO to me

step in the correct driection

EPS A-Okay

12z Euro significant shift NW. Waiting on the EPS

12z Euro is awful for DC, with a big NW shift. might be a cave

I wouldn't be too worried about missing this one, fellow comrades in the metros. We're already tracking two more events in the medium-range.

i cannot identify a difference between the 0z and 12z CMC

GFS actually starts as SNOW in the metros. Not as good for northern crew tho

December looks hot. Updated: BWI: 25.5" DCA: 18.2" IAD: 27.1" RIC: 12.3" ----- SBY: 13.2"

you said that you would release another winter outlook in november if your idea about winter changed. maybe it's time?

its probably a brash prediction