bncho

what in the doom and gloom did i wake up to?

4-8" with @SnowenOutThere and crew getting about a foot. I'd take this, and most people would be ecstatic with this except Ji.

The end of the GFS is a nice snowstorm and then we somehow mix on I-95.

holy fucking -NAO

It was stuck on hour 66 on TT, Pivotal, and WeatherBELL for about ten minutes.

GFS is REALLY close for Jan 4, but it's too far south and there's little cold air to work with.

You guys bullied the GFS so much that it stopped working.

That’s what Ji tells himself

Tomer doesn’t weenie cast. Holy shit. 20-29” in NYC likely translates to 15-25” for DCA.

I thought he was talking about TOTAL snowfall, and then I read it a bit more carefully… LFG!

What more can you ask from this other than the fact that it's three weeks out? Strong signal for an -EPO with a trace of +PNA in there, then we have the high latitude blocking with some decent -AO/-NAO signals (could be stronger) also with a hint of an SE ridge to prevent suppression. The cold air is THERE in Canada as well. Jan 15-Feb 1 y'all. I'm telling you we're getting something then.

12z EPS is quite similar for Jan 5-9, but much better for that more favorable window that is Jan 10 onward

Never EVER change, Ji. lol

It's also vodka cold afterwards. High on Jan 11 is 15F in DC.

12z Euro major winter winter storm Jan 9-10, general 4-8"

Jaws at the end of the 12z GFS

IMO I like the Jan 10-13 timeframe better than Jan 5-8 just because we're more likely to have the PNA and EPO in our favor. Lots of members show big hits on each ensemble then. Jan 5-8 will be hard to get a big storm more than 6+" just because the PNA and EPO are unfavorable. The odds are stacked against us there.

JFC that 0z GFS had lots of chances but nothing worked out. The end of the GFS looked good as well. Nice pattern we're starting to enter

0z GFS is a cold rainstorm for Jan 10 but it would make a significant dent in the drought—2+" precip for most in the forum also has some back end snow C-2"

I think @RodneyS will be updating this a lot next month.

It's the GEFS at 384 hrs, but that is a very nice -EPO popping up

stormy is in quite a stormy mood

CAPE is one of the best posters here and you disparage him over nothing. take a break lol

https://x.com/bam_weather/status/2005038182279381143?s=20 Great BAM video here. Here are his main points: 1. Winter storm around Jan 4-8, specifically stating "it's gonna be a big one" and it'll "probably be an ohio valley, mid atlantic coastal" storm. 2. There will be a moderation period after the big storm 3. January 15-30 will be "cold and stormy"

I dunno if anything will happen but IMO the early-Jan pattern is kinda similar to the ones present in DCA to BOS major winter storms. +PNA looks to show up. So does a west based -NAO. And the STJ is actually alive for once, which IMO has been the piece we've been missing for the last few years. The PV is on our side of the world, so we can tap into cold air very easily. It's pretty rare we see that combo. We just need that pacific to be a little bit better and then there's real big dog potential. I'm liking this January 2026 look better than January 2025 solely because we have an STJ. Hopefully we can reel a big one in, or maybe we'll just flop on our faces after the NYD clipper lol