bncho

One of the best posts I've ever seen on the entire forum from one of the best posters on this entire forum. Kudos to you. Winter still has a chance.

What exactly Webb is seeing that screams to him "ugliest Jan/Feb he's seen in a long time" I'm not sure. He cites that there'll be strong +AO/+NAO tendencies but I doubt that'll be the case because I'm not sure how that domination throughout the whole winter would happen. Maybe there are a few +NAO periods but otherwise I wouldn't put much stock in what he says. There's a decent -EPO signal trying to develop for mid-January and the overall pacific looks to become better then as well

I was actually pretty damn close--if the GFS ran up to hour 440.

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV while the 0z Euro drops 97 degree weather.

shortwave was in a decent spot but there's this weird blue blob under the NAO which kinda screws up things

12z GFS is a valiant attempt but it's too warm

There's a panic room thread too!

Went from the highest of highs two days ago to the lowest of lows today. Welcome to AmericanWX!

0z GFS is pretty nice

ENSO thread is fine lol

Why is this the case?

My take is that it isn't over until it's really over. Until mid-late January last year we thought February would be a torch... it ended up being around average and we got that 4-8" snow event. Unfortunately there was some heartbreak with the late-February phantom but it still could be argued that was our best pattern of the whole winter--in the month that we thought would torch.

Liking the trends I saw. As that super -NAO starts to trend more west-based it kinda moves the central-US ridge west because the -NAO amplifies the eastern trough, which inherently helps us trend towards a more positive PNA (trending from negative towards neutrality). A 6z GFS kind of scenario is certainly possible--that storm actually tries to cut N/NE-ward--but the -NAO is just so strong that it gets shunted south giving US some wintry weather. edit: NW is wrong, meant NE

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

pacific is just more powerful than the atlantic

12/29-30 is probably our best chance, but it's still a long shot. OPs have been showing ways we can score for a decent amount of time and ensembles have a decent signal, but we're kinda grasping on straws here lol. EPS shows that kind of ugly central-US ridge, but it also shows an pretty strong east-based -NAO. Even though it's a -NAO, it's an east-based -NAO, so while it'll help with a torch it's not going to do much otherwise IMO. h5 flow would suggest WAA aloft but at least it's somewhat cold at the surface so snow changing to mix or rain has a decent chance. More of a conditional setup where timing is absolutely key, so wouldn't hold too much hope unless the -PNA/+EPO trends towards neutrality and/or that NAO block trends more west. We still have time though, 288 hours is more than enough time for those things to happen.

WxBELL has GFS AI and its ensemble!

merry mixmas has a nice ring to it

GFS says Merry Christmas for NYC lol

GFS says Merry Christmas for y'all lol

From what I know, a major player in the cold outbreak for the first half of December was the -WPO. I would think this means we want a -WPO, but I’m not 100% sure whether that’s the case, so someone smarter can answer that.

i saw 22-23 and that scared the shit out of me

I doubt this is the end for December, especially on the tracking side of things. EPS and GEFS have around an inch of snow for most of the area (mean, not median) for the remainder of the month.