bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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The GFS has quite a climactic ending.
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Snowy Christmas to you too!
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It looks good for @mitchnickand points north, and has been like that for the past 3 model runs (not just the GFS) IMO.
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It's 100% a colder look. There's also more confluence. That 546 line shifting 50 miles south could be the difference between sleet/zr/rain and sleet/snow in DC.
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Looking thru a few of the maps and saw the 18z NAM. Obviously it's the 84hr NAM (lol), but what it shows is what we need to happen. That HP is stronger and more south than what other models have such that if it were to be extrapolated I would guess that at the very, very least DC and points north would stay frozen the whole event.
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Just like 12z was, it's still a good run.
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It looks like 18z GFS won't be what we want.
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I think you put it very eloquently in one of your past posts—it's called meteorology, not modelogy. Great call there.
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Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.
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Look at that SW trend! 2" in Baltimore as well!
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12z GFS was still a great run IMO. DC and points north still stay all frozen. Would really like that HP to trend stronger and slightly more south so snow is more of a possibility.
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It's actually not getting shunted as far south as 6z. HP in Canada is slightly more north than 6z.
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I think I've pressed the reload button on WxBELL about 75 times on the 12z GFS lol
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GFS actually a tick south so far in terms of heights
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12z GFS looks markedly similar to 6z GFS @ hr84, but I don't know whether things will change a lot (for better or for worse) in terms of its solution
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we're climbing up the cliff together so we can fall in together. all over a 6z GFS run lol
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Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.
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I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.
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I would say you are in a very good spot for something wintry. You have a decent chance at this one IMO.
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Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.
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What the hell is the GFS? I said maybe it could tick south last night, but wow. Uncancelling the cancellation of winter now?
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Would've loved to see more of the 0z Euro... but it almost alludes to what BAM said regarding the big storm for the first week of January.
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0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again?
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I would say he's fairly knowledgable, but he leans colder often. Definitely not weenie status though.
