bncho

Central Park may hit 4+" for December with 12/23 and 12/26. That's a great signal for the rest of the winter over there.

Look at that SW trend! 2" in Baltimore as well!

12z GFS was still a great run IMO. DC and points north still stay all frozen. Would really like that HP to trend stronger and slightly more south so snow is more of a possibility.

It's actually not getting shunted as far south as 6z. HP in Canada is slightly more north than 6z.

I think I've pressed the reload button on WxBELL about 75 times on the 12z GFS lol

GFS actually a tick south so far in terms of heights

12z GFS looks markedly similar to 6z GFS @ hr84, but I don't know whether things will change a lot (for better or for worse) in terms of its solution

we're climbing up the cliff together so we can fall in together. all over a 6z GFS run lol

Curious as to what your other analogs are for this setup—maybe it could provide more insight into possible outcomes.

I think the models are just underestimating the -NAO. That's why everything suddenly shifted south. Might be a huge coup from the GFS... storms that pop out of nowhere have definitely happened before.

I would say you are in a very good spot for something wintry. You have a decent chance at this one IMO.

Welcome to the world of the super -NAO. Look at THAT trend.

What the hell is the GFS? I said maybe it could tick south last night, but wow. Uncancelling the cancellation of winter now?

Would've loved to see more of the 0z Euro... but it almost alludes to what BAM said regarding the big storm for the first week of January.

0z Euro and GFS are advertising some ZR for our northern crew on 12/26-27. It has ticked south a lot over the last 24 hours... maybe they can tick again?

I would say he's fairly knowledgable, but he leans colder often. Definitely not weenie status though.

He also mentioned a lot about convections, but I don't know anything about that, so hopefully somebody more knowledgable can explain

New BAM WX video says we're back into winter by mid-January. Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between. Edit: he also mentions a lot about convections in the east asian mountains or something like that, but I have no idea what any of it meant so hopefully somebody more knowledgable can explain

EPS trend for 12/29 @ 12z. Look at that trend towards colder weather. And some are already cancelling winter.

Jan 15 to Feb 15 honestly looks like a decent period IMO

One of the best posts I've ever seen on the entire forum from one of the best posters on this entire forum. Kudos to you. Winter still has a chance.

What exactly Webb is seeing that screams to him "ugliest Jan/Feb he's seen in a long time" I'm not sure. He cites that there'll be strong +AO/+NAO tendencies but I doubt that'll be the case because I'm not sure how that domination throughout the whole winter would happen. Maybe there are a few +NAO periods but otherwise I wouldn't put much stock in what he says. There's a decent -EPO signal trying to develop for mid-January and the overall pacific looks to become better then as well

I was actually pretty damn close--if the GFS ran up to hour 440.

At the end of each of their runs, the 0z GFS will drop a 946 tucked low that brings 72” of snow to the DMV while the 0z Euro drops 97 degree weather.