bncho

Went from the highest of highs two days ago to the lowest of lows today. Welcome to AmericanWX!

0z GFS is pretty nice

ENSO thread is fine lol

Why is this the case?

My take is that it isn't over until it's really over. Until mid-late January last year we thought February would be a torch... it ended up being around average and we got that 4-8" snow event. Unfortunately there was some heartbreak with the late-February phantom but it still could be argued that was our best pattern of the whole winter--in the month that we thought would torch.

Liking the trends I saw. As that super -NAO starts to trend more west-based it kinda moves the central-US ridge west because the -NAO amplifies the eastern trough, which inherently helps us trend towards a more positive PNA (trending from negative towards neutrality). A 6z GFS kind of scenario is certainly possible--that storm actually tries to cut N/NE-ward--but the -NAO is just so strong that it gets shunted south giving US some wintry weather. edit: NW is wrong, meant NE

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

pacific is just more powerful than the atlantic

12/29-30 is probably our best chance, but it's still a long shot. OPs have been showing ways we can score for a decent amount of time and ensembles have a decent signal, but we're kinda grasping on straws here lol. EPS shows that kind of ugly central-US ridge, but it also shows an pretty strong east-based -NAO. Even though it's a -NAO, it's an east-based -NAO, so while it'll help with a torch it's not going to do much otherwise IMO. h5 flow would suggest WAA aloft but at least it's somewhat cold at the surface so snow changing to mix or rain has a decent chance. More of a conditional setup where timing is absolutely key, so wouldn't hold too much hope unless the -PNA/+EPO trends towards neutrality and/or that NAO block trends more west. We still have time though, 288 hours is more than enough time for those things to happen.

WxBELL has GFS AI and its ensemble!

merry mixmas has a nice ring to it

GFS says Merry Christmas for NYC lol

GFS says Merry Christmas for y'all lol

From what I know, a major player in the cold outbreak for the first half of December was the -WPO. I would think this means we want a -WPO, but I’m not 100% sure whether that’s the case, so someone smarter can answer that.

i saw 22-23 and that scared the shit out of me

I doubt this is the end for December, especially on the tracking side of things. EPS and GEFS have around an inch of snow for most of the area (mean, not median) for the remainder of the month.

Genuinely curious--could you provide some examples?

Thinking 24-25 was the start of a better set of winters. Even though the storm kinda sucked for where I live (and even worse in DC, IAD, etc.), it's not often to see an inch of glacier in mid-December.

ok calling it 1.5" total. it's icy on the bottom of the snow cover so maybe there was some compaction but whatever

December: 3.7" 12/5-6: 2.2" | The return of the mythical December 5th snowstorm. It brought extreme cold for early-December, with my high of 29. Included a nice little round two starting at 10 PM, not finishing until around 1 AM. R1: 1.9", R2: 0.3" 12/14: 1.5" | A busted forecast (from 2-4"). 0.25" QPF fell as 1.5"—awful ratios.

1.5" of thick paste. Makes me wonder what the QPF was.

gonna take a quick hour long nap... i'll be back at 4:30. hopefully i wont be disaaapointed

ew it's drizzling now