bncho

I think that, if you want a big storm on the 8-10th, you'd have to be okay with an ice storm on the 6th. That's the bottom line. If we get snow on the 6th then the cold becomes too suprresive for the second wave.

Slightly afraid we lose our Jan 8-10 storm via supression.

That's okay with me. Gives us a better shot at the 8-10th.

Oh yeah, 100%. MUCH improved from the 6z, however.

but NYC gets fucking clobbered.

Not a complete dud. C-2" of mood flakes.

Jaws?

Seems like this storm is trending better. I hope we don't lose our 1/8-10 event because of it, though. EDIT: I don't think we lose the 1-8/10 event at 217.

Back to back SECS and HECS would be AMAZING (but it's probably the best-case scenario).

It might stay all snow!!!!

192 and HEAVY SNOW. NO ICE/SLEET.

Snow gets heavier at 189hrs.

We're starting to get into "FOLKS" territory now.

Also has the storm on the 8th-9th

It always goes like this 12z is a bum 00z is amazing 12z is another bum 00z is amazing

Euro Ensemble breakdown for DC snow thru Jan 13: 1/50 members show 36+ inches (2%) 3/50 members show 24+ inches (6%) 6/50 members show 12+ inches (12%) 16/50 members show 6+ inches (32%) 21/50 members show 3+ inches (42%) 37/50 members show 1+ inches (74%)

This is proof why you shouldn't worry too much about the OP runs.

People look at the 00z Euro and think there'll be a BECS. They need to look at the bigger picture.

Fine by me. Now let's wait and see the 8th.

Freezing Rain at 201.

Heavy sleet at 195.

GFS needs to Jan 6 to turn into a Miller B instead of cutting.

I'm starting to think the wheel isn't 100% stupid.

We watch storm signals. The two purposes of the OP runs at long range is to see if there's a storm signal that matches up with the ensembles, and too keep the weenies happy. Jan 5-6 was highlighted as a possibility a few days ago but it wasn't the big bad threat. It seemed okay then, seems unlikely now, that's just how things trend. The big bad threat we're watching is Jan 7-10 (which is not more than two weeks out, it's more like 10-12 days out). It seems primed to do something. The OPs, while unlikely to come true, are keying in on what the ensembles are showing. Guidance has never looked this good in a while. At the end of the day, we can't accurately predict much from this range.

Look at the EPS when extended to 360hrs... Snow is for DC. 50/50 members show a trace or more of snow (100%) 41/50 members show 1+ inches of snow (82%) 24/50 members show 3+ inches (48%) 13/50 members show 6+ inches (26%) 7/50 members show 12+ inches (14%) 4/50 members show 24+ inches (8%) Wild times are ahead. I'd take a 1 in 12 chance for 24 inches by Jan 13.