bncho

That would be a cool storm. I get 8" snow followed by 3" of sleet and 0.5" freezing rain. That would definitely keep me out of school the whole week as well.

Here's what I'm thinking. In the upper levels, any difference in temperature can make a huge difference at the surface. A bust -0.25*C cold is probably an extra hour of snow before a flip to mixing, which is an extra 1-2". In these overrunning CAD setups it's harder to predict the upper level temps. There's more risk for those forecasts to bust.

What type of CWG forecast is this?

No worries! I come here to learn. If you correct me on things that I get wrong, that's more than fine with me!

Ah, thanks! Looking at the NWS website it's used for tracking fires—but is it used to track snowstorms like these?

To straighten things up. There are only two versions of the NAM Nest. The regular 'ol 12k NAM and the hi-res 3k NAM. There is no such thing as a 1.33k NAM (that I know of). The 3k NAM should start to get into range for this storm by 0z tomorrow night, where it starts to enter its useful range. Hoped that helped.

Whatever the EPS-AI means to you...

TWC is tweaking

Absolute betrayal.

You're quite bullish! What is your reasoning for this forecast?

Snow maps look a decent amount worse than 12z, unless you live far NW

12z comparison—18z slightly colder

We reacted to this post with disgust at first, now we're just trying to get the most variety of reactions

Yeah, that was the whole point of the post. You're right for the wrong reason.

Elevation actually doesn't really matter in these types of setups. The surface temps aren't an issue, it's the upper levels that are. Elevation won't really help with that, it's the fact that's he's NW of the metros.

By the way that's entering the medium range soon. Crazy how loaded this pattern is.

GFS had the right idea. Maybe QPF on the northern side was slightly overdone.

We would NOT pay attention to the GFS if the GFS wasn't American.

Thank God I'm not part of that group...

A human takes credit for a robot detecting a robot. That's the funniest thing I've seen.

The Capital Weather Gang posts a forecast that they're only 50% sure about lol

1/25-26 First Call Snowfall Forecast From the JV Team Hopefully the map is pretty self-explanatory. That thick blue line is the dividing line between all snow and mixing. Tonight this forecast will be refined. This will likely be the most impactful winter storm in the DMV region since 2016, even though mixing with sleet and freezing rain will occur. Temperatures will be cold throughout the storm and will struggle to reach 25. Snowfall ratios at the beginning of the storm will likely be around 16:1 and will slowly decrease to around 9:1, before mixing, where freezing rain and sleet will make conditions all the more dangerous. Snowfall rates during the heaviest returns will be upwards of 1-2" per hour, occasionally reaching 3" in isolated areas (which are currently unknown as we are too far out for CAMs to realistically hone in on those areas) where h7 FGEN goes crazy (credit to @MillvilleWx). After the storm, temperatures will remain frigid, and it's unlikely that high temperatures reach above freezing until February. Your snow/sleet/ice will turn into glacier. Prepare now. Make sure to get all your essential needs, like food, water, and a source of heat if your power goes out due to the ice.

Really? I'll go research those. I only know the famous ones.

Look at that confidence interval as well... We've got the day after the second Feb 2010 blizzard, the day before the blizzard of 2016... and then there's Feb 18, 2025

Modern day 2009-10 back to back major winter storms