bncho

12 INCH SNOWSTORMS IN DC SINCE 1930 Year Event DCA or IAD ≥12”? 1942 Late March 1942 storm ✅ DCA ~14" 1958 Feb 15–16, 1958 ✅ DCA 14.4" 1966 Jan 29, 1966 ✅ DCA ~12" 1971 Dec 30, 1970 – Jan 1, 1971 ✅ DCA ~15" 1979 Feb 18–19, 1979 (Presidents’ Day) ✅ DCA 18.7" 1996 Jan 6–8, 1996 ✅ DCA 17" / IAD 24" 2003 Feb 16–18, 2003 ✅ DCA 16.4" / IAD 22" 2009 Dec 18–19, 2009 ✅ DCA 16.4" 2010 Feb 5–6, 2010 (“Snowmageddon”) ✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 32" 2016 Jan 22–24, 2016 (“Jonas”) ✅ DCA 17.8" / IAD 29" 2026 (?) Jan 14–16, 2026 (?) ✅ DCA 22" / IAD 34" (?)

Well, what did we expect? The Mid-Atlantic is back to the rug pulls and cliff jumpers we know and love!

rename this thread to the holiday weekend debacle, just like Feb 19-20 was lol

fixed

06z GFS and Euro are extremely disappointing, but their ensembles aren’t too bad, albeit a tick slightly east.

GEFS keeps continuing the west trend—great… but where the hell was that last winter?

SUMMARIZING THE 12Z SUITE Globals GFS | IAD: 2-3", DCA: 2-3", BWI: 3-5", RIC: 2-3.5" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide) ECWMF | IAD: 1-1.3", DCA: 1.3-1.8", BWI: 1.5-2.5", RIC: <0.5" EC-AIFS | IAD: <0.15", DCA: <0.2", BWI: <0.2", RIC: 0.2-0.5" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMC/GEM | IAD: 0.5-1", DCA: 1-3", BWI: 2-3", RIC: 0.4-0.7" ICON | IAD: 1-1.6", DCA: 1.3-1.7", BWI: 1.3-1.6", RIC: 1.5-2.5" UKMET | IAD: <0.15", DCA <0.1", BWI: 0.3-0.8", RIC: 0.2-0.5" Ensembles GEFS | IAD: 0.8-1.2", DCA: 1.1-1.5", BWI: 1.3-1.7", RIC: 0.8-1.1" ECWMF Ens | IAD: 0.8-1", DCA: 0.9-1.1", BWI: 1-1.2", RIC: 0.9-1.1" EC-AIFS Ens | IAD: 0.4-0.7", DCA: 0.6-0.8", BWI: 0.7-0.9", RIC: 0.5-0.7" (least agressive/worst outcome forum-wide) CMCE | IAD: 0.9-1.2", DCA: 1.3-1.6", BWI: 1.6-2", RIC: 0.9-1.2" (most aggressive/best outcome forum-wide)

12z Euro AI ensemble ticks east similar to it's non-AI counterpart. 1.2" -> 0.9" -> 0.7"

Another tick east by the 12z Euro Ensemble. 1.6" -> 1.3" -> 1.0"

from what i'm reading, the last October Nor'easter was October 29 2011, where IAD got 0.2 inches of snow, and DCA got 0.1!

h this gives a winter vibe. everybody hyped for a storm in a STORM THREAD. hell yeah baby. let's reel this one in!!!!

I feel good about this one. I said that about one hundred times last winter I'm and going to die with it again.

good thing about this is that worst-case still gives us some rain

the exact opposite of Feb 19-20. The GFS won that time . Maybe it can win again?

12z CMC/GEM is decent for I-95 and points east, sharp cutoff for the west.

Euro AI ensemble less aggressive with it, but still averages almost an inch.

GEFS ensemble is probably the most west it's been.

The 12z GFS is a hit--and a good one at that. Good signs so far.

finally a storm thread! we're really getting warmed up for winter.

6z GFS is just brutal.

The 06z Euro Ensemble is a tick east, but it's very likely just noise.

This might be the first time since winter that I stay up for model runs!

waiting for the weenies to call this the feb 20 redux becuase of this noise

this is probably the most active i've seen this place since march 2025

euro ensemble gives us 30-40% for 2+" QPF!!