bncho

CMC puts all of that energy into the CAPE cutter

My big fear is that we end up too far south for the redeveloping Miller B, but at this lead time, it's very encouraging.

I'm going to crash out if we have to deal with another messy 5" while NYC and BOS get 20" of cold smoke

Low-end warning/high end advisory event on the GFS

You sound like my awful PBP. Anyway, it starts as rain but flips to some nice snowfall

You ARE cherry picking. Why the hell are you choosing 1956? And when you add twenty years to that, 1976, 1996, 2016... the numbers go up only because of COINCIDENCE. The 1950s were MUCH snowier than you think they were, too! Here are the ten-year averages, also graphed below: 1891-1900: 27.1" 1901-1910: 23.1" 1911-1920: 23.0" 1921-1930: 20.0" 1931-1940: 21.0" 1941-1950: 18.5" 1951-1960: 18.5" 1961-1970: 26.5" 1971-1980: 14.5" 1981-1990: 15.4" 1991-2000: 16.3" 2001-2010: 18.0" 2011-2020: 14.9" 2021-2025: 6.8" The UHI effect isn't negligible, but it should NOT cause this steep of a decrease in snowfall!

I always thought of a Hudson High as a super southwest based -NAO… would you agree?

You’re cherry picking your years, dude. It’s obvious. Also, explain to me how the seasonal 30 year average at DCA went from 25 to 14” in a span of 100 years without attributing it to a warmer climate?

Event 2:

1st event (I-95 screw zone):

Euro has two events (I think, basing off 2m temps and precip). One for the 23rd (maybe 2-4"?) and one for March 1st-2nd (rain to snow?)

if some of that euro AI output is sleet it'll happen. We do sleet very well in the MA.

DRIZZLE!

We're BACK!!!!!

Might as well play along with this, here's the 6z Euro AI for the 22nd-23rd

I know that it was forecasted. And I'm not saying he was necessarily "wrong" in terms of following that forecast. But I don't know what he was predicting beforehand, that's why I said I couldn't remember.

genuinely why are we doing this to ourselves

It's fine. I know the drill. You guys are going to sacrifice me now.

I remember that 30-day MJO 8 prediction, I can't really remember much else

Chuck is like Spock. He's very smart and rational, but he's always such a buzzkill.

Extremely well said!

I think I actually remembered this from some sorta movie, but it just occured to me that a lot of methane is contained within our ice caps. When they melt they are released. But thank you for clarification about water vapor feedback.

CO2 levels around 1800 were approximately 280ppm. That number has raised to 420ppm, an increase of 50%! It's not about the small percentage that's in the atmosphere. It's more about the drastic increase! Without CO2 (assuming plants weren't affected), Earth would probably be WAY too cold for the current multicellular organisms to survive save for a few species. Despite how little CO2 makes up the atmosphere it leaves a big impact!

It started with CO2 emissions. By itself it warmed the environment (a little bit) but more importantly it kickstarted a positive feedback loop with water vapor, which is also a pretty potent greenhouse gas (albeit not to the extent of CO2 when comparing it molecule by molecule). Warmer temps can hold more water vapor, so the water vapor traps more heat, and the even warmer air can hold even more water vapor, so the additional water vapor traps even more heat, etc., etc., there's your positive feedback loop (also ice melting = less radiational energy reflected = warmer temps, another positive feedback loop). So with the increasing amount of CO2 emissions every year this loop only increases in rate over time. I don't know too much about methane and CFCS so i didn't mention them. It would be much appreciated to tell me more about those greenhouse gases.

Wait next year, we'll have some of those yellows and reds, even those purples