bncho
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Everything posted by bncho
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Euro AI 7-9", favors VA/NC border, but I'm fairly sure that's because it's counting all that ice there as snow
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EPS 4-5", favors south central VA
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GEFS's snow signal for Jan 25-27 is actually the weakest signal out of the ensembles. GEFS: ~4" EPS: ~5" EPS-AI: ~7"
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Yea, I think it's 7".
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JFC the Euro AI Ensemble has a 3 day snow mean for Jan 25-27 is like 6+" I think, have to wait for slow ass wxbell to confirm
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By the way, the mean temperature for next Sunday afternoon is 18 degrees in DC on the GEFS. Which is just absolutely LOL worthy.
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pretty cool signal for 8 days out
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i was looking at the wrong ensemble run lol, post was edited
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The GEFS has like 6+" of snow in DC at hr 288 holy shit
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@high risk my MVP wil likely be able to provide the answer
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The AI Euro is a deadly fuckin model, especially inside D4. It was the only model that reliably sniffed out that the Feb 2025 storm was going out to sea, without really wavering.
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The Euro AI is an 18-24" snowstorm, assuming 10:1 ratios are too low for the northern parts of the crew.
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welcome to the forum! our best posters are ji and greyhat. they provide the most insight. be sure to listen to them.
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who the fuck cares about what the gfs shows? 0z it was too far north, 6z was decent, now 12z was too far south lol
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awful 1040 high placement
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it's a 1ft snowstorm
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12z GFS is interesting so far, might be suppressive though
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Yeah, we introduced gooning into the equation...
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just to further buttress your claims, they all have the AO around -4 to -5 SD
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Me and Ji? I talk too much for my own good.
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@stormtracker how're ya doin? Are ya ready to do GFS PBP?
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FWIW, the CMCE, GEFS, EPS, and the EPS-AI all show DC with a mean of 6+" of snow
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0z Euro had a pretty impactful ice storm
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of course prior to this i knew that ensembles were better than ops at d5+. but half the time people don't give a shit about what i say, so if i introduce a red tagger maybe they'll listen? idk man,
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What a shitty ass model the GFS is. Terpeast said the ensembles are the way to go past D5. Let's listen to him.
