18z Euro is the exact same other than the fact that the snow thump had slightly less purchase and the mix line moved about 3 miles NW (that's not even an exaggeration). Hold in my book.
For this winter storm, they called the North shift perfectly. 48 hours ago, while we were sweating suppression they were thinking DC and Balt would mix.
IMO if a UKMET solution happens then it's likely underdoing QPF IMO... there could be 3" per hour rates in some areas during the hours before the changeover