bncho

lol there's a 1043 high over ontario on the GFS (at the end)

i'll take it and run (ya ninja'd me )

I agree—interesting. Very interesting.

What are your thoughts on a +PDO for next season if an El Nino does form? Is it a likely outcome, and why/why not?

Someone mentioned to me that vortex east of James Bay could act as a 50/50 low if it continues to trend ESE. Any thoughts?

Temperatures are better.... if precip gets up here then it'll be snow.

everything that doesn't show a foot of snow over your house makes you so mad lol

January 15th has been trending better slowly. The h5 wave is deeper and slower, exactly what we want.

generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos

bc i have the username bncho dude. what do you expect from me?

funky GFS run

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

Most of you know that I'm an optimist, but even I can't help but get a little bit worried. We're wasting half of January to wait for a 7/10 highly volatile -EPO/+TNH pattern and a wild card February and March. Will it be as bad as 22-23. 19-20, 16-17, etc.? I don't think so yet.

That's my birthday! Jan 32, 2026!

You come back Jan 15. Ji come back never.

I saw a flock of geese flying north.

0z GFS (which popped the coastal) vs 12z Euro fail. Easier to see why each outcome did what.

holy flop lmfao

hmmmmmm

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

the end of the GFS was going to be something

barney is coming to town!

GFS slowly but surely trending better...

It was always January 15 and onwards.