Your mindset is different from all the other weenies, though. You play it conservative and don't say anything unless 100% sure. that puts you already in the top 99%tile.
The trend over the last several model runs has been to dig the trough more SW, priming it for an earlier negative tilt. The earlier the negative tilt, the closer we get to a bigger Raleigh-Boston winter storms.
Two things are for certain:
1. We need snow within the next 10 days or I think we'll all go crazy
2. @winter_warlock posts 6-words-or-less sentences, one of those words being "lol"
If the NAM shows snow = it's not gonna snow but it's funny to look at
If the NAM shows a warm nose issue = there will definitely be a warm nose issue and we still won't get snow