That’s both a bad thing and a good thing IMO. On one hand it says that there’s not much of a chance, but on the other it says there’s still some significant potential with this system. Definitely still needs to be watched.
I've been consistently saying that the tropical forcing in MJO 8-1-2 and death of La Nina will help with a more canonical Nino response into February and March.
-EPO/+PNA actually leans dry, but it’s also a big dog pattern with that high-latitude blocking. With those AN precip anomalies in our region and the TN valley, I would be more inclined to think Jan 25-Feb 10 has big dog potential rather than cold and dry potential.
He's definitely going to be one of the main forces that keep this place high-quality and relevant, no doubt about that.
Ji is just a troll. But I guess the argument could be made that he makes AmWX, well, AmWX.
Late January IMO is a simpler setup. All we need is a wave to tap into the cold air and boom. It's also reassuring to see the AN precip anomalies over us and the TN valley; signals that the STJ should be more active.
you're right, actually, h5 has been looking pretty damn good this winter (e.g. Jan 15 ULL) but those h5 looks aren't translating to the surface, where's it's often cold and dry.
lol its too bantery y'all. I agree with the doom and gloom and can kick and kick in the crotch but unless its weather related put it in panic thread or banter. thanks!