BarryStantonGBP

no but they have been more accurate than mainstream forecasters for the past few years they were the only company to predict no more than 18 named storms last year, and that manifested secondly, they make a great point about LRC cycles, which totally makes sense

they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023 I'd seriously consider them

to add:

what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast

They're FAR more accurate than CSU and the big dogs, I'd take this forecast pretty seriously

Weather 20/20: 20-12-5, 180 ACE They are the most accurate with spring forecasts, even more so than CSU (they're fair) and the TSR (they have low balled again)

17-10-5/180 ACE

underestimating

welcome aboard Brianna, Holly and Miguel

retirements are being announced today

a bit too low on the numbers https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/

I've got down on my personal forecast: EC (especially the NC) and the western gulf are under fire, some parts of the caribbean I have that down as well, but for late season threats

thoughts https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?

Alternate thread made after this one

I beat you to it

Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh) not liking the sound of that one

Hurricane season is 3 months away. Will it be as active as last year? What to know at this early stage. February 27, 2025 at 7:12 a.m. ESTToday at 7:12 a.m. EST 6 min 3 A car sits half-buried in sand in Bradenton Beach, Florida, which was in the process of cleaning up after Hurricane Helene, as Hurricane Milton approached last October. (Rebecca Blackwell/AP) By Ben Noll One of the first things that tipped scientists off that 2024 would be an unusually active hurricane season: excessive ocean warmth in a key region of the Atlantic Ocean. But that’s just one of many factors different as this year begins. Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday. With the Atlantic hurricane season less than three months away, forecasters are making early efforts to understand how this year may differ from the last. And while specific forecasts for the number of hurricanes can’t be accurately made this far out, forecasters can look to planetary climate patterns for clues. At least two key differences suggest odds are lower for another extremely active season: For one, the tropical Atlantic isn’t as warm as it was last year. And a La Niña (known for cooling a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean) is not expected to form during the season. But it’s still early — and current conditions don’t entirely eliminate the odds of an overactive season. Follow Climate & environment Follow In the Atlantic Ocean, hurricane season runs from June through November, typically peaking in September. Last year, hurricane season was hyperactive, based on a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy. There were 18 named storms and five hurricane landfalls in the United States, including the devastating Hurricane Helene. The Atlantic is cooler than last year Among the many complex puzzle pieces that start to create a picture of hurricane season — including winds, air pressure patterns, Saharan Dust and monsoonal activity — sea temperatures are a key driver. Scientists look as an early signal to what’s called the Atlantic Main Development Region, or MDR, which extends from the Caribbean to the west, and to near Africa in the east. Sea surface temperatures in the MDR have a statistical relationship with hurricane activity. In 2024, there was excessive warmth in the MDR. But it’s not currently as warm as last year, nor is it forecast to be in a few months. When the MDR is cooler, it can contribute to atmospheric conditions that aren’t particularly conducive to lots of hurricanes. Forecasts for the MDR extend to July 2025, and they suggest that while seas in the region may be somewhat above-average, the Atlantic’s most unusual warmth will be located farther north. Comparing forecasts made for July of both years shows how much warmer the MDR was predicted to be in 2024 — a prediction that turned out to be correct. If the predictions hold true this year, that might reduce the odds for a season as active as 2024. Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region are forecast to be slightly above average in 2025. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service) The Atlantic Main Development Region was forecast to be much warmer than average in mid-2024. This prediction ended up being correct. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service) Andy Hazelton, a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Environmental Modeling Center, said the cooling of the MDR is the biggest factor that has stood out to him so far. “It’s still pretty warm, especially in the Caribbean, but the subtropics (north of the MDR) look warmer overall right now,” Hazelton said. If the pattern were to continue, he said, it could put a cap on how active the season may be. More On The Hurricane Season Next Western states face powerful atmospheric river, potential bomb cyclone A hurricane will likely form soon. It could affect the U.S. next week. ... Another hurricane could form soon, ominously late in the season What a fizzling Rafael could signal about the end of hurricane season Where Rafael, now in the Gulf of Mexico, may go next Hurricane Rafael tracker: Map and projected storm path Why Rafael could fuel heavy rain in parts of the U.S. while far away Rafael is now the 5th major hurricane of Atlantic season How Asheville residents survive without running water, weeks after Helene After Milton, what’s next for Atlantic hurricane season? SBA will exhaust disaster relief funds by next week, chief says Hurricane Andrew forever changed Florida. Milton could rival its damage. Tampa Bay feared Milton would be the storm of a century. How bad was it? Helene has become one of the deadliest hurricanes of the modern era Hurricanes’ hidden toll: Thousands of deaths years after they strike Where floods from Hurricane Helene are ravaging the North Carolina mountain... How Hurricane Helene could have widespread consequences for homeowners The 4 biggest hazards still to come from Hurricane Helene La Niña may be fading During hurricane season, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are more than distant neighbors — they’re connected by the atmosphere. What happens in one doesn’t stay there; it sends ripples to the other, shaping storm activity on both sides. One pattern that causes a Pacific-Atlantic ripple effect is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral. El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average seas in the eastern Pacific, while cool seas are prominent there during La Niña. Neutral periods often occur during transitions between El Niño and La Niña, as sea temperatures temporarily become less anomalous. Early this year, the tropical Pacific entered a La Niña phase — but it’s not expected to last for much longer. The cool waters associated with La Niña can suppress rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the tropical Pacific. But as the atmosphere balances itself, increased rainfall and thunderstorm activity, as well as winds that are more conducive to hurricane formation, can occur in the tropical Atlantic. This is why, in addition to the record-warm Atlantic seas, forecasters were so concerned about the level of hurricane activity last year. But a period of weaker winds in the eastern Pacific this month has caused a substantial warming of the ocean to the west of South America. Because the winds have been less robust, a process known as upwelling — which happens when strong winds churn cool, subsurface waters to the surface — has slowed down. If the warming continues, it will put the Pacific in a much different state than it was heading into the last hurricane season. Sea temperatures have risen dramatically to the west of South America, suggesting that a La Niña may soon end. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA) In 2024, a developing La Niña in the Pacific contributed to a higher chance for more hurricanes than average in the Atlantic Ocean. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA) This year, a developing tongue of warm water in the eastern Pacific could have the opposite effect as it did last year, promoting rising air and more rainfall there, while having a drying effect on the Atlantic. However, predictions of El Niño and La Niña are not made equal. A phenomenon known as the “spring predictability barrier” can lead to less-skillful forecasts during spring in the Northern Hemisphere. “ENSO still has the spring barrier to cross,” Hazelton said. “But cool subsurface conditions and persistent trade winds suggest we probably won’t be getting a rapid flip or setting up for El Niño in the summer.” The bottom line: It’s still early, but 2025 looks different One thing can be said confidently at this point: So far this year, the elements that drive the Atlantic hurricane season look markedly different from 2024. The Atlantic Ocean is shaping up to have a different sea-temperature configuration than last year, with the most unusually warm seas sitting outside of the MDR. A marine heat wave — expansive blobs of unusual oceanic heat that are becoming more common in a warming climate — no longer covers the MDR, but remains active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, areas where hurricanes derive their energy from. In the Pacific, the door may be closing on La Niña as seas warm up in the east. But a full-fledged, hurricane-halting El Niño doesn’t look particularly likely, either. Marine heat wave conditions have shifted away from the Atlantic Main Development Region this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA) Hazelton said it’s possible there will be ENSO neutral conditions during peak hurricane season. These are some of the factors forecasters will be monitoring closely as hurricane season approaches. Seasonal outlooks of hurricane activity are typically released in April and May. And while the data may change, one thing is certain: It’s never too early to prepare, especially considering the United States experienced impactful landfalls from Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton last year.

Pablo (PAHB-loh)

Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)