BarryStantonGBP

Bro have you seen the forecast from Lezak

Too low

What would this imply for the hurricane season?

do we have this for 2025?

I’m mostly paying attention to the lrc tbh

What paths and intensities are you thinking for those two?

Which ones to look out for?

TWC April 17, 2025 19 9 4

Pray for Humberto and Pablo https://stormgeo.com/insights/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/04/16/268weather-forecasts-a-potentially-super-hyperactive-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/

What is this cope forecast: https://news.ncsu.edu/2025/04/15/experts-predict-12-to-15-named-storms-this-hurricane-season/

Solid range What are your analogs?

what numbers are you thinking + no CV storms like Kirk?

I believe the NE Carib has been highlighted as a hotspot by mainstream forecasters and the gulf/Carolinas by the godfather lezak

2017

Bolded the ones to watch for bigger impacts minor impacts in italics this is based off LRC

I have the following for my personal forecast, with 2017 and 2021 as analogs Forecast (barrystantonGBP): Named Storms (TS+)20 Hurricanes (Cat 1–5)11 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)6 Category 5 Hurricanes 3 (Humberto, Melissa, Lorenzo) Estimated ACE 180 (High-End) mainstream is missing something Lezak and alternative forecasters are seeing Can’t just rely on SSTs, ENSO, instability models alone. Mainstream forecasters have been for many years and they usually are well off last year only lezak of all forecasters got close to the numbers of the 2024 season and predicted around 15-18 NS the mainstream did not (they overshot). But the masses chose to discredit lezak!

Mainstream forecasters have been pathetic since 2013. I’ve fully started to ignore them but alternative ones like lezak I can bring you the comparison of all the 2024 forecasts the mainstream did VS lezak. It’s laughable and yes we absolutely are looking at 17-20 NS. Pathetic not to OHC and SST still above average.

Mainstream forecasters have been heavily relying on this same method. They don’t get it right often. I’ve stoped putting trust in them 2017 had the same thing 2017 v2 is on the table. I don’t care how much the mainstream barks. They’re too afraid to admit the SSTs, everything so fr has mirrored 2017 and 2021 to a lesser degree what do they do? Bark about 2012 which is a pathetic analog

I put my trust in the LRC

another underselling mainstream forecaster numbers seem too low (maximum 19-9-3/150 ACE, minimum 15-7-2/120 ACE) https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurricane-forecast-update/ no 2017 analog no 2021 analog therefore, UNDERSHOOT, next

no but they have been more accurate than mainstream forecasters for the past few years they were the only company to predict no more than 18 named storms last year, and that manifested secondly, they make a great point about LRC cycles, which totally makes sense

they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023 I'd seriously consider them

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