BarryStantonGBP

2017

Bolded the ones to watch for bigger impacts minor impacts in italics this is based off LRC

I have the following for my personal forecast, with 2017 and 2021 as analogs Forecast (barrystantonGBP): Named Storms (TS+)20 Hurricanes (Cat 1–5)11 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)6 Category 5 Hurricanes 3 (Humberto, Melissa, Lorenzo) Estimated ACE 180 (High-End) mainstream is missing something Lezak and alternative forecasters are seeing Can’t just rely on SSTs, ENSO, instability models alone. Mainstream forecasters have been for many years and they usually are well off last year only lezak of all forecasters got close to the numbers of the 2024 season and predicted around 15-18 NS the mainstream did not (they overshot). But the masses chose to discredit lezak!

Mainstream forecasters have been pathetic since 2013. I’ve fully started to ignore them but alternative ones like lezak I can bring you the comparison of all the 2024 forecasts the mainstream did VS lezak. It’s laughable and yes we absolutely are looking at 17-20 NS. Pathetic not to OHC and SST still above average.

Mainstream forecasters have been heavily relying on this same method. They don’t get it right often. I’ve stoped putting trust in them 2017 had the same thing 2017 v2 is on the table. I don’t care how much the mainstream barks. They’re too afraid to admit the SSTs, everything so fr has mirrored 2017 and 2021 to a lesser degree what do they do? Bark about 2012 which is a pathetic analog

I put my trust in the LRC

another underselling mainstream forecaster numbers seem too low (maximum 19-9-3/150 ACE, minimum 15-7-2/120 ACE) https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurricane-forecast-update/ no 2017 analog no 2021 analog therefore, UNDERSHOOT, next

no but they have been more accurate than mainstream forecasters for the past few years they were the only company to predict no more than 18 named storms last year, and that manifested secondly, they make a great point about LRC cycles, which totally makes sense

they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023 I'd seriously consider them

to add:

what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast

They're FAR more accurate than CSU and the big dogs, I'd take this forecast pretty seriously

Weather 20/20: 20-12-5, 180 ACE They are the most accurate with spring forecasts, even more so than CSU (they're fair) and the TSR (they have low balled again)

17-10-5/180 ACE

underestimating

welcome aboard Brianna, Holly and Miguel

retirements are being announced today

a bit too low on the numbers https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/

I've got down on my personal forecast: EC (especially the NC) and the western gulf are under fire, some parts of the caribbean I have that down as well, but for late season threats

thoughts https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?