NittanyWx

12z GFS is a good example of the suppression risk that occurs with heights crashing out west. Still a very delicate act here to make it work.

It's a delicate balancing act of the 3 factors you're reinforcing here in addition to a low track omplicated and influenced by both upstream and downstream factors. And that's before we even get to the resolving of Canadian HP strength at hr 168. Lot more moving pieces here than just surface high and track of the low. Thought it was kinda ridiculous to simplify it down to such. Anyway, happy new year!

You are going out of your way to take shots at people. Discuss the meteorology. It is a complex setup and should be treated as such.

Because it isn't simplistic. Which is the whole damn point. And I've actually been someone who's flagged this period well over a week now as potentially having the necessary ingredients for snow and that it 'could work'. But I hate this shit of policing what weather factors are fair game to discuss or not. If that HP is 1024 instead of 1030, the antecedent airmass matters. No one is saying it 'can't snow' because of the antecedent airmass. But it's absolutely fair game to discuss.

Just unnecessary level of emotion in discussing various factors and minutae that impact a storm. It's fair game to discuss it.

Oh really now? Are you sure the high is gonna be 1030 at d7? Are you sure the low is gonna be 985? Are you sure the synoptic conditions aren't going to cause the storm to be suppressed? What about over amp? Because these are factors I'm considering and you should be too if you could forecast worth a damn.

So its entirely a function of the low levels...nothing to do with 700mb low track, phasing of multiple jet streams, timing of a deepening low into an antecedent marginal airmass? The high helps, but this is far more detailed than just 'track'.

It's a delicate balancing act.

The antecedent airmass being marginal is a legitimate aspect of forecasting this storm. Not sure I understand this comment. Modeling is fair game inside d7 as are the slight synoptic differences. Some of y'all get so emotional when there's a storm around and I don't understand why.

I would much prefer an overrunning scenario vs a coastal for more frozen precipitation locally in this scenario. That said, this can work under the right sense of synoptic circumstances. Looking to amp just enough via a combination of a deepening low (but not too deep) and just enough ridging out west to not overwhelm a marginal Canadian HP and not be suppressed. It's doable, but it still requires a few things to go right. The 10th in my view is unlikely to deliver frozen precipitation for most. I believe the EC Ens this afternoon will likely end up too cold with that.

We're definitely not in a Nina-like background state

As discussed, the 6th-7th window is the one opportunity I dont totally dismiss regarding snow chances. Still need a few things to go right to make it happen, but some HP in east Can is helpful. You need to amp this some, but a deep bombing coastal low probably overwhelms marginal HP help for most in the area.

In places where there are statistically significant El Nino correlations? Yes, absolutely.

Yes.

As an aside, the insistence on seasonal forecasting is kind of strange because increasingly the value I see being added is in days 10-30. I don't think it's a crapshoot anymore regarding temperature regimes. You can add value there and increasingly its the window the energy and retail clients are seeking value added by meteorologists in. I get asked more about week 3-4 than week 2 at this stage in my career.

Must be mild because the NYC forum is back to fighting each other. For the record, bluewave has been solid. Not perfect, but no one is. He's done a better job recognizing source region issues than some red taggers. Can we move on now?

The hill in this case is a 500 foot cliff

I think the EC Weeklies are again showing a +EPO reward of NE. Given all I've discussed about this lately, I don't think it's something you can ignore outright in favor of seasonality and hard transition to +PNA. There's a transitional window you're gonna need to deal with and there is a risk of more Pac air. Hence my comment about last 10 days of Jan.

Im not one who would qualify as someone who had a favorable view for snow this month until perhaps past MLK and you can look at my posting history about it.

I'd also say that I'd adjust +1 C from any analog in the 50s. Gotta be honest with the current state of our climate and account for it if you're gonna use it as a forecaster. This is the type of stuff that trips up the cold crowd on WxTwitter

FWIW I think the time to push panic button is if you're not seeing PNA height rebuild last 10 days of Jan. So you're getting an idea of that in about 10 days.

It's very difficult to get a weak source region to deliver anything now in the east. Possible isn't probable and that's the view I'm taking 1h Jan. We're missing HP in eastern Canada for any length of time outside of that Jan 6-8 period (36-48 hours or so) and that would be the only window I'd say 'maybe' at the moment for the bulk of SNE. I don't think a coastal works there for snow though outside of the far interior. Think you'd need overrunning into N/NE winds from the retreating HP. That said, I do think it's a good thing that you've got at least some cold air this side of the pole mid Jan. The way out of this mild pattern is gonna have to start in the west. For me personally the game changed once you saw that massive jet extension because of the damage it did to NA snowpack buils and the sheer amount of Pac air over the continent. At that point any way out was gonna take some time and several step changes. This is step 1 and 2. For the end month period to deliver, you'd look to see this trough slide eastward around the MLK period and seasonal rebuild of Nino induced heights out west.

I'm glad you got to experience that storm here because forecasting it was a pain in the ass.

Never done TV. Did radio for 8 months at the start of my career. I had some coverage in Willimantic, CT and Keene, NH among my radio stations.

We haven't had it to this degree. We are at record low snowcover right now nationally and for NA.