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NittanyWx

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Everything posted by NittanyWx

  1. NittanyWx
    2m is a hindrance and still have to contend with the warm nose around 800.
  2. NittanyWx
    Not sure I'd go that far, but this was encouraging for those northern burbs and the risk of CCB banding for those folks increased today, particularly east of the Hudson.
  3. NittanyWx
    Very, very interesting dynamics on this run for Sunday mid-day for those merritt/287 north
  4. NittanyWx
    I'll toss in another complicating factor, there's been a steady increase in mid level activity/vorts in the Midwest too since the western feature started getting sampled. I agree with you, FWIW on inherent NAM biases at hr 60, part of the reason i'm cautious and suspicious it's a bit overwarmed.
  5. NittanyWx
    Copying from SNE: Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast. That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west. As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors. 0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft. I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.
  6. NittanyWx
    Starting to see that warm nose show up between 750-850 which was a risk as noted last week for the coast. That warm nose less of a factor as you get away from the coastal plain, and the wraparound (even with marginal air) band can overcome that in the column further north and west. As discussed, the track certainly matters, but so too does the two vort interaction, closing off of the upper level low among several other factors. 0Z/12Z today have shown there a mix risk honestly as far north as Hartford and extending into SNE with that SE fetch aloft. I think the NAM at this stage is a bit of a warm outlier for now, but not unreasonable risk.
  7. NittanyWx
    Fun to see the 3 operational models all have different ideas on how to handle that trailing vort interaction. First bit of sampling out west and that's become an increasingly interesting feature.
  8. NittanyWx
    I did and I'm hoping to see an idea on the 0zs of how many individual members have this cconcept with the secondary piece. My initial thought is partial sample size off of partial sampling, plausible but maybe not most likely as of today. Cant dismiss outright though. Obviously if this does end up as a rapid developer, the odds of a CCB type band increase significantly. If it strings out you maybe get some fronto enhancement vs full on CCB weenie band.
  9. NittanyWx
    Have been using tonight as the first benchmark for a bit of 'consolidation' in model land on resolving the departing SW strength and also the main system out west fwiw. Otherwise no new thoughts from yday.
  10. NittanyWx
    Ok, I'll talk about North of the Merritt and North of Tappan Zee just for you
  11. NittanyWx
    I know how to read a clown map. I also know how to read a temperature map and a sounding. You don't want this fight. Tl;dr: the 10:1 clown maps are misleading on accumulations in marginal setups like this and not particularly useful along the coastal plain right now.
  12. NittanyWx
    I mean that's just not true for the island on that run as @jm1220rightly points out.
  13. NittanyWx
    First datapoint where I'm looking at the western system is with the 0z tonight. Mainly looking for changes inside 48 hr with respect the speed of the vortmax cutting off, depth of it as it digs in California and beyond that beginning to take a bit of a cursory look at the Aleutian low and any potential interaction that has with rising (or falling) heights out west for Saturday. Also looking at jet streak out of the gulf and whether there are any changes on that front as well. As an aside, seeing a lot of comments on 'model shows X snow' and a clown map. I think we can do better than rip and run in this forum. Doesn't take much effort to add 'but temps and dews above/below freezing for location y, so it may be overstated in this area. Look at the soundings, let's do the weather right.
  14. NittanyWx
    Probably start the tightening process with the 0z suite tomorrow evening is my hunch
  15. NittanyWx
    Should get a bit more convergence once this thing is sampled inside the next 24-36 hours.
  16. NittanyWx
    think this is a reasonable first guess, though towards lower end.
  17. NittanyWx
    Going to again reiterate that I believe the upside for this storm along the coastal plain is a low end event, even in a suppressed solution, if you want to keep it snow. Inland a different story.
  18. NittanyWx
    Looking forward to modeling tonight/tomorrow midday as we start getting more robust sampling of this western system. I'd say up to this point odds have been slightly skewed towards more suppression vs cutter based on synoptic pattern, we now should start being able to discern which is the more likely risk with better certainty starting with the 0z tonight and 12z tomorrow. The region is threading a needle between trying to have enough western amplification/east canada 50/50 to get this storm north (but not too much), trying to deepen the low (but not too much) and if you do both, also trying to avoid warm air nose near the 700mb level. Delicate balancing act with several moving pieces. It's going to be hard at the coastal plain (city, LI, coastal NJ) for this to deliver much more than a light/low-end moderate event I feel because of marginal temps (being overnight does help a bit) but whether this is a notable interior event where sfc temps will be colder we should start getting an idea on soon as we start defining track risks with more conviction. You guys know I've been someone who felt this period could work for over two weeks now, but as I said then and will continue to say now, a few things need to go right still and not all of them have done so yet.
  19. NittanyWx
    With surface temps in the mid 30's, you'd take the under. Clown maps are exciting to look at, but you do still need to check those temperature panels and soundings...
  20. NittanyWx
    Agree here, very useful tool at the d6-10 range.
  21. NittanyWx
    Feeling that this January so far is setting up as expected. You've got a chance on the 7th, but need a few things to go right to make it happen. Don't like the 10th at all. Do like MLK period/week.
  22. NittanyWx
    Im warming up to this MLK period and immediately after for snow chances, which is nothing new in my view. Hate the 10th, still think this is doable Jan 7 but still need a few things to go right out west for it to happen and need to avoid 700mb warm intrusion if it ends up a coastal. I feel risk skewed higher for suppression than cut today with the 7th.
  23. NittanyWx
    Or putting it in overly simplistic terms: A lot more pieces need to change for the 10th to work out for snow lovers than the 7th-8th.
  24. NittanyWx
    I use the ICON inside 120 hours. It's a viable, usable model.
  25. NittanyWx
    I dont think a soaking rainstorm in the region is off the table completely either, but I think it's little less likely than suppression today. You've got a path to pretty much every solution at this stage.
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