NittanyWx
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Everything posted by NittanyWx
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Same issue with the dendrites getting beat up. Perhaps even more so. You'll just have way more liquid to work with.
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Using 12-1 ratios because the wind is gonna beat up these dendrites. 10+ island and much of coastal NJ and coastal CT seems fair. It's that sharp gradient keeping me up right now. I'd love this to tuck 20 miles further west just to make this a bit more straightforward
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Most of the downstream changes are a knock on effect of subtle differences occurring inside hour 72 with regard to that northern stream piece. It's becoming a bit less theoretical today. Still some time for it to change again, but inside 72 you tend to look at it as a bit less theoretical vs trend tracking. -
That shift in warm nose at 925/850 made a huge difference up there. Nice job by Albany on seeing that early yday.
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Precip timing was fine at the 10z cycle, it has 0.1LE a little after 9 in the city and S Westchester closer to 10. So pending SWE it could end up a bit too dry if anything. But as far as temperatures go and the coastal front, that was handled well.
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You were repsonding to a post of mine talking about the performance of the model with the coastal front. From there went on about how the 21Z HRRR 'showed no snow', which is just flat out wrong. It also kept Ptype as snow through 9pm, or roughly 2 hours. LE may end up around 0.1", which is where the 21Z HRRR may end up underperforming. If you would have said that, I would have agreed with you...
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Depends on which model. Here's what the HRRR had this morning for right now: I'm a big stickler on revisionist history in this field and will call it out every time.
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For the record, the HRRR has been showing this starting off as snow pretty much all afternoon... Use the clown maps at your own risk. But it's straight up false to say it didn't have this starting off as snow for an ay least an hour via the 21z run. 29/25.5 in Wilton, light snow.
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That gradient won't last very long. The HRRR has been pretty good at modeling this coastal front
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95% of the metro area looks in line to be above freezing by 11:30. Orange County and maybe the hills of Sussex the exception. Storm behaving as expected.
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Looking at some upper 20s and 30 degree readings into lower Manhattan.
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The HRRR has been fine.
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Winds have shifted to an easterly direction in Fairfield County, CT and temps have quickly jumped to the mid 20s. It will only take a subtle wind direction shift to warm things up considerably.
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I was surprised Upton kept the HWW limited to eastern areas, I think most of the Island will verify criteria.
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Still expecting the inversion to hold for most north of the Island. I'm a bit surprised Upton hasn't extended HWW further west as of this morning. Think odds are pretty high of that verifying south shore and much of the Island at large.
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*Far* Inland. Would need a major (and it should be said quite unlikely) error with the northern stream to have much impact around the major cities like he's suggesting.
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I dont want to speak for the guys at Mt. Holly or OKX, but I think they're waiting to see the northern stream piece sampled by our upper air network first given its importance to how far inland the low tracks. That's the only thing I can think of at this point.
