NittanyWx
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Everything posted by NittanyWx
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Everyone thinks it’s easy until they have to do it for a living, then it’s not so easy. -
Pretty clear warm nose around 750 on this GFS run. That remains the chief concern, especially coast and jersey. The globals tend to underdo these at this range. As I mentioned a couple days ago, you hope you can hold off some of this with decent enough lift, but that's the push/pull of this storm.
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The only thing giving me pause about this storm (and it's a big pause) is the 850 low. Screaming southerlies mean warm nose aloft is almost a guarantee to cause some mixing issues for pretty much all of the CWA. I like the front end thump potential and you can hold off some of that warm nose with decent lift.
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Certainly not accurate on an HDD basis.
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Not all EPO's are created equal. Positively or negatively tilted has very significant downstream impacts, as does amplitude.
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Its called 'proximity to the ocean'
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Next 90-120 mins time to see if N Shore can squeeze that extra inch out of this band.
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Looks on track so far. 28, SN, 2" on ground here in Wilton, CT.
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The north shore special can be good for an extra inch or two.
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I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island. 3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region. Not really overthinking this one. Ratios should be decent north and west. Nice moderate storm.
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Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287.
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Banding/subsidence risk a bit secondary to timing of CAA on a west wind in my opinion. You feel better north of merritt, west of 287 on ratios
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There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this. Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions. Just needed one spark.
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Not saying I'm expecting a cold Feb by any stretch, but if you've got ample source region and a PV piece hanging around this side of the pole, It's hard to truly Nina torch across the northern tier. You end up with low level cold leakage behind waves, though any cutter you'd obviously torch for that.
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The 'new ML models' are worse in the d5+ range than the EC Ens. Many are even worse than the GFS Ens. We have yet to see a model consistently beat the EC Ens despite tricky marketing gimmicks and selective verification to the contrary.
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- metsfan vs snowman
- bomb
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12z GFS bring the phase back. Pretty binary y/n with this event. Weenie porn run.
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- metsfan vs snowman
- bomb
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You can also have a strong/juicy STJ in the scenario you're describing and absolutely crush the mid-atl and southeast when the block is too amped while the area gets skunked... Which is the point.
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It can be argued that the kicker today is actually helping this lift a bit further north than it otherwise would be expected with how amplified this block/pattern is.
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Certainly one of the more dominant features leading to suppression in my opinion.
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Blocking refers to more than just an index value of the AO, as you know.
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The issue with this current setup is much more related to block amplification than anything else.
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Vendors have them if you're willing to pay. But not all parameters.
