NittanyWx
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About NittanyWx
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Everyone thinks it’s easy until they have to do it for a living, then it’s not so easy. -
Pretty clear warm nose around 750 on this GFS run. That remains the chief concern, especially coast and jersey. The globals tend to underdo these at this range. As I mentioned a couple days ago, you hope you can hold off some of this with decent enough lift, but that's the push/pull of this storm.
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The only thing giving me pause about this storm (and it's a big pause) is the 850 low. Screaming southerlies mean warm nose aloft is almost a guarantee to cause some mixing issues for pretty much all of the CWA. I like the front end thump potential and you can hold off some of that warm nose with decent lift.
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Certainly not accurate on an HDD basis.
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Not all EPO's are created equal. Positively or negatively tilted has very significant downstream impacts, as does amplitude.
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Its called 'proximity to the ocean'
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Next 90-120 mins time to see if N Shore can squeeze that extra inch out of this band.
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Looks on track so far. 28, SN, 2" on ground here in Wilton, CT.
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The north shore special can be good for an extra inch or two.
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I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island. 3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region. Not really overthinking this one. Ratios should be decent north and west. Nice moderate storm.
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Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287.
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Banding/subsidence risk a bit secondary to timing of CAA on a west wind in my opinion. You feel better north of merritt, west of 287 on ratios
