NittanyWx

Its called 'proximity to the ocean'

Next 90-120 mins time to see if N Shore can squeeze that extra inch out of this band.

Looks on track so far. 28, SN, 2" on ground here in Wilton, CT.

The north shore special can be good for an extra inch or two.

I've got 2-5 coast with less east end of the island. 3-6 city and immediate northern burbs, upside possible if band. 4-8 north of the usual dividing line Merrit through 287 region. Not really overthinking this one. Ratios should be decent north and west. Nice moderate storm.

Maintain the view from yesterday that the risk here is likely more to the coastal boundary layer and feel good about snows north of the merrit and west of 287.

Banding/subsidence risk a bit secondary to timing of CAA on a west wind in my opinion. You feel better north of merritt, west of 287 on ratios

There's a limit to how much forestry management can do with this. Its a perfect trifecta of fire weather conditions. Just needed one spark.

Not saying I'm expecting a cold Feb by any stretch, but if you've got ample source region and a PV piece hanging around this side of the pole, It's hard to truly Nina torch across the northern tier. You end up with low level cold leakage behind waves, though any cutter you'd obviously torch for that.

The 'new ML models' are worse in the d5+ range than the EC Ens. Many are even worse than the GFS Ens. We have yet to see a model consistently beat the EC Ens despite tricky marketing gimmicks and selective verification to the contrary.

12z GFS bring the phase back. Pretty binary y/n with this event. Weenie porn run.

You can also have a strong/juicy STJ in the scenario you're describing and absolutely crush the mid-atl and southeast when the block is too amped while the area gets skunked... Which is the point.

It can be argued that the kicker today is actually helping this lift a bit further north than it otherwise would be expected with how amplified this block/pattern is.

Certainly one of the more dominant features leading to suppression in my opinion.

Blocking refers to more than just an index value of the AO, as you know.