stormy

I can assure you that a topsoil moisture deficit is developing over much of central and northern Virginia. This has nothing to do with the subsoil clay moisture in your garden. Clay retains moisture long after topsoil is dry. During the first 29 days of March I received 38% of normal rainfall!

The GEM capitulated to the GFS southern track and ots. A continuation of a recent weeks pattern that finds much of Virginia/Maryland now beginning to suffer a soil moisture deficit.

I'll take 11 inches, if we could only get 6 inches into D.C.! The GEM is very close.

HP placement looks good. CAD is good. Surface LP over Smokies is decent . QP looks too rich. It will vanish at 00z.

Do you remember 3-13-93. The Storm Of The Century. The storm that gave Dulles 14 inches and Snowshoe 44 inches.

Yes, that has been one of the big problems this winter. But, being positive, we have 8 more weeks. What we are looking with confidence is two weeks or less. 5 or 7 days from now, unexpected opportunities will likely present and then we will be back in the game. I know that JB is ready to throw in the towel over the MJO and EPO.............. If he does, he is likely making a mistake.

A long wave trough axis over Cincinnati and Nashville can work.

Thanks for sanity................... Simply, better pattern....... If it verifies

20/20 vision. No source of cold air because the atmospherics are terrible. Perhaps a high elevation event.

This is only one run. As Bob pointed out, the pattern is crappy for next weekend. No high over Ogdensburg, only ridging in from NA. The Euro first with 6 inches and now the GFS with 7 inches for the 81 corridor is a step in the right direction.

When I receive 6 inches of snow, that is a decent hit.

The good news is that I predict that February will be the first month since August that my area receives normal to above normal precipitation. We will hopefully begin a recovery process from the hydrological drought that will take months of above normal precipitation to completely alleviate. The closest USGS test well to me is about 18 ft. below normal and continuing a steady decline.

Since September 1, I have received 7.85 of the 17.85 inches predicted by the GFS 384 hr. precip. charts.

You are exactly right and I am exactly right. "It will end at some point". My conclusion is that it will end soon after being dry for 5 months. My definition of soon? 1 week - 3 months.

Cobalt! You nearly caused a stroke with that shot!! Actually, that is a shot of your back yard after you have watered heavily in May and June and your local governance has implemented mandatory water use restrictions in July.......... It dries up and cracks open. No fear of prosecution! It will rain in June and July. That is my fearless forecast!

You are correct, a dry pattern is often followed by a wet pattern. I must believe that the probability of a dry spring and summer is reduced because of how long most of us have been dry. Many folks who are in a moderate drought as I speak don't have a clue because people don't notice a drought during the winter as they would during the green season.

The Rockingham County Board of Supervisors were addressed by their senior extension agent yesterday. They were told to expect a dangerous drought situation this spring unless they receive at least 8 inches of rain by the end of March or 12 inches by the end of April. His terminology to describe the current situation: It is becoming critical. Private wells are beginning to fail. People are asked to not wash vehicles from private wells and conserve water anyway possible.

I am going to be gentle. You comment guarantees my premise. "We haven't had a single event this winter that has dropped even half of that precip." Do you understand that is the problem?? You can hash or dice potentials any which way, but the fact is that significant systems are unlikely to affect our region until this pattern breaks. How many times have we looked 8- 12 days into the future this winter at a potential that really looked good, only to have it fall apart as we got closer. Please, understand I am not criticizing you. I am only asking you to wake up! if your existence is only guaranteed by cheerleading, that is fine. The pattern can break next week, or next month. We need to watch for signs. But, we need to also understand that the dry pattern is a major force in our snow drought of late.

It will take 5 - 10 inches of rain over a slow period of 3 - 5 weeks to remove this drought condition.

I agree completely, we usually have more generous precipitation during an El Nino in winter because of a more active stj. But, Jan. of 96 which was very wet averaged -0.9c. Go figure

"Not great" is 20/20. Most of Virginia and Maryland has been in an abnormally dry pattern since early September. There is nothing apocalyptic about this as some seem to believe I have been insinuating. Perhaps, my approach to this fact was incorrect. If so, I am sorry. This pattern has resulted in much of Virginia now being classified as being in a moderate drought. This is not minor and it is not major. But, it has serious implications if it persists much longer and it almost certainly is a factor in our low snowfall for many locations. Last winter I was also in an abnormally dry pattern and received only 4 inches of snow compared to a normal 24 inches. This dry pattern broke in April and I received normal to above normal rainfall through the summer until another dry pattern began in September and persists. During January of 1996, I received 33 inches of snow during an abnormally wet month that witnessed 9.36 inches of qp compared to a normal 2.95". Normal to above normal snowfall often correlates to normal to above normal precipitation. The reverse is also true. I convert snowfall to qp at a 10/1 ratio unless my 13 inch freeze resistant rain gage indicates otherwise. This pattern will break and when it does, we may swing to above normal precipitation as Mother Nature tends to balance. Normals are only averages of extremes. The question is will it break in February, March or April. Our late winter snowfall is probably contingent on the answer.

We are not in a low level drought. We are in a moderate approaching serious drought. This is the worst precipitation deficit anytime during the past 40 years for January in Virginia. This is the TOPIC. Can you understand this?? We argue and thrash about snow. Snow doesn't fall copiously during a drought. Who cares about snow?? We need precipitation.

Thank you my friend!!!!! You live in the real world instead of dwelling in fantasy!!!

Cobalt! I was beginning to worry about you! You are struggling but piped in. A prolonged period of abnormally low rainfall?? 45% of normal rainfall last 4 months. 6.17 compared to 13.81". You should be smart enough to recognize a serious problem for northern Virginia if this continues and recognize a connection to the disappointment of this winters snowfall threats.