stormy

I received 1.33" of rain during the last 16 hours. Wonderful!

Augusta qpf dropped from .75 to .47: 12z - 18z

I still believe possibly 1-3 for Valley Augusta. Above 2000 ft. 3- 5. Above 3500 ft. 5 - 10 depending on qp.

A GFS/ECM blend gives me 7.25 inches.

I could believe 1-3" slushy acc. on grass. That would be the latest acc. during the last 50 years. Prior was 9" on April 7, 1971.

The Euro on steroids. It spikes my area from 2.5 at 00z to 4.1 at 12z.

A 6 am 3 model blend (GFS/ECM/GEM) gives Augusta County 1.68 rain late Sunday through Monday. If this verifies, it would be the greatest event rainfall since January 25.

I have received .39" of much needed rain during the past 24 hours.

I'll take about 8 - 12 inches of wet snow. Wonderful moisture additive. 49 years ago today, my area received 8 - 10 inches of snow.

I'm sorry Will but as I explained last week, 10 day precip. maps almost always dry up recently. To dry from 2.56 to .85 is the same old story, but that will change.

I'm odd in the respect of being concerned about a recurring pattern that has resulted in less than 50% rainfall for a large portion of my immediate region during the past month. I'm odd in the respect that I am very sensitive to the hardship that will be created for many people engaged in agricultural pursuits if this pattern repeats and persists during April and May. Reasonable people would have the attitude, hey, I hope you folks down in the central valley do better with rainfall during April than you did during March. Unfortunately, you don't seem to be in that reasonable category. I agree with PSU in believing that we will see a change during the next month or two. If we don't, things will be bad for a lot of people. Have A good day.

Thank you! I I have been thinking too much zonal flow that puts us in the shadow of the western mountains and too much repetitive high pressure surface and aloft over Virginia that simply dries out systems trying to move in.

The 06z GFS believes the next 10 days will be an instant replay:

PSU : I am waiting patiently. Please don't disappoint.

.16 rain last 3 hours. 41 degrees at 7:44. 30 miles to my west at 4000 ft., 1-2 inches of snowfall during the past 2 hours.

Light rain began about 20 minutes ago, 46 degrees. Yes, it does rain in Augusta, once in a while.

OK, you are a smart person regarding climate cycles and weather patterns. I'll give you that much. Will you please give it your best shot to explain why this hopefully short term anomaly has occurred? The 00z ECMWF believes it will continue for at least the next 10 days though the precipitation hole does shift a little northeast. For at least the past month, if the GFS, ECM or GEM sees a break coming, it always repeats as we get to 2 - 5 days before showtime. Please give me an educated and reasonable explanation.

You're such a lucky fellow, why should you worry? Be thankful you don't live in D.C. where that Democratic mayor (Muriel Bowser) suffers from??? Threatening people with 90 days in jail and a $5000 fine for leaving their homes!!!!!! Back to the here and now, my yard is at 38% for March. But, I am heartened this morning since my 48 hr. 5 model blended qpf has increased from .22 yesterday to .38 this morning. That is a step in the right direction to ameliorate my 2.35" deficit for March. Oh, by the way for PSU, the county hasn't zoned those corn and soybean fields to mandate that they properly utilize available moisture!!! Hilarious!!!!

You need to drive down to Highland west. The latest GFS and Nam say 2 - 4 inches for that area.

It may very well happen several times in a decade. That certainly doesn't justify many wanting to ignore a climatic anomaly as if it doesn't exist. People guilty of this are ill informed. If D.C. receives 8 or 10 inches of snow a few times a decade, this board goes nuts. If a moisture deficit exists nearby, this board foolishly wishes to deny or ignore it unless it hasn't rained at Reagan for 60 days. That is quite amusing!! Properly planning water usage or zoning has nothing to do with this. Poor planning and over population???? Your premise is nowhere close. D.C./Baltimore is a small insignificant area. Half of Virginia is significant.

I am not odd. I simply replied to PSU in a jovial fashion. You are odd to not understand that..

There's always a bright side to adversity! The .02" that I received last Friday night left water standing all over my lawn. Squish! Squish! as I walked across the back lawn. I squatted down and simply used my bar of soap to wash my hands in the standing water. I didn't have hot water, therefore I washed and rinsed for 40 seconds instead of 20 to get rid of any covid-19, then got my dispenser out and applied 70% to finish the job, just in case.

Hey, good morning out there in Alleghany County! You folks have been so lucky during the past 30 days with many locations receiving 125% of normal qp. Compare Alleghany to Augusta where many locations are at less than 50%. It is somewhat silly to have this old thread posted again at this time. No intelligence whatsoever. A topsoil moisture deficit is NOT DROUGHT. If the current precipitation pattern continues for the next 60 days, large portions of Virginia will indeed have slipped into agricultural drought. We are not there yet.

That map only updates about once every two weeks. That is the latest. During the past 7 - 10 days the latitude zone from the bay through D.C. to Winchester has received various amounts of very beneficial rain. Much of central and northern Va. from Richmond, Charlottesville, Lexington, Staunton, Harrisonburg and New Market is very dry. These are several month deficits. Southwest Va. between Roanoke and Bristol is wet.

You speak with a reasonable tone. Thank you for that. As you may notice the date on the short term map is March 21. What some seem to be unaware of or defensive about is that portions of extreme northern Virginia and Maryland received very beneficial rainfall yesterday. Cross Junction in Frederick County reported .50". Others without doubt received significantly more. If you travel south from this area rainfall was meager at best. I received .02". You received 4.30" in March. That is close to what I have received this entire year to date.