stormy

Real time radar depiction over southwest Virginia gives the 06z ECM,& HWRF the greatest accuracy. The GFS, GEM and both NAM's are out to lunch.

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

Its official. My rainfall total for May is .87". The driest in the last 42 years. The second driest was 1.60" in 1991.

If this pattern doesn't soon change, the Valley may witness the driest May since at least 1979. Only .18" the first 16 days of May.

That 1040 HP just north of Ogdensburg is definitely a "big deal" if the LP tracks through southeast Va..

For my immediate area the Euro has consistently been 5 - 10 degrees too warm for the past week with afternoon highs. The GFS and GEM have been more accurate.

The last 30 days have averaged less than 50% rainfall in the Hagerstown/Martinsburg area and Dale City/Fredericksburg region. The next 10 days looks like well below normal rainfall on the 00z Euro. My earlier short-term deficits have shifted northeast.

Northern Virginia is quite dry.

Portions of northern Virginia, Maryland and southeastern Pa. are getting very dry . The next 10 days are marginal.

Spruce Knob,W.Va. at 4862 ft. reported 15F at 6 am................ Compares quite well to 14.9F at 850mb. at Dulles.

29 out in the Valley at 6 am. 41 at 10:15. .06" rainfall yesterday. Canaan Heights reports 2.8" snowfall last night. 30 miles to my west, 1 " snow at 4300 ft..

47 mph wind gust at 2:33. 1.89" rainfall. Looking around Augusta, generally 1 - 2 inches rainfall.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ Today, we eclipsed the 18-19 flu deaths of 61,200.

I received a total of .61". Confirmed by two gauges. Very welcome rainfall.

Those drought maps are often 2 or 3 weeks outdated. The short-long term map yesterday from NOAA was dated April 11. This map indicated large portions of northern Virginia and Maryland in a short-term drought condition. The latest map dated April 18 indicates all of this area back into a normal condition after beneficial rains. I never depend on any government operation to be prompt about anything. Simply, too much bureaucracy. We are all normal at this time. I have enjoyed chatting with you! I have received .42" rainfall today at 7 pm.

Hello up north. I don't know who has a theory of a "region wide drought"? Can you enlighten me? What is his or her handle? During late March after a very dry month in Augusta I posted an advisory of a growing rainfall deficit in the central valley. I also advised that this is NOT DROUGHT, but we would be in agricultural drought if the pattern continued another 60 days. Fortunately, April has been generous. The first 22 days gave my recording station 2.58". Normal for the first 22 days of April would be 2.42".

LOL That Euro 4" from 12z yesterday dropped to 2" at 00z. Cancel the Flood Watches. Of course, it is somewhat delusional to pay serious attention to a 10 day qpf from any model.

My full bloom 30 year old fruit trees were zapped by 27 degrees Sunday morning. Can't cover those girls.

I agree when you say the odds of each flip are not affected by the other flips. But, I have observed a 75% likely aberration of flipping to above normal snowfall the year after well below normal snowfall. Two of those 4 above normal winters had a neutral Enso condition. One was a weak La Nina at - .9c. One was a weak El Nino at +.9c. This past winter gave well below normal snowfall with a neutral to slightly positive Enso. at 0.0 to + 0.5 Enso based predictions would have been anomalously above actuality. Next winter enso? We don't know, latest CPC probabilities issued March 19: 37% neutral, 31% La Nina, 32% El Nino

Based on the last 40 years, that is a reasonable assumption. What is your assumption otherwise???? LOL in advance......

I feel quite comfortable with a near 0% probability. Thanks for your interest! Have a great day!!

My total this winter was 5.2". The lowest total was 1991-92 at 3.10". The following winter came in at 36.5". Next is 1980-81 at 3.20" followed by 34.5" in 81-82. 2016-17 yielded 4.50" followed by 18.4" in 17-18. 2001- 02 came in with 5.50" followed by 35.50" in 02-03.

During the past 40 years, I have never had two very low snowfall winters consecutively. Something to look forward next year. .5" of snow last night with 33 degrees. 1 - 3 inches on the surrounding mountains.

12z Nam increased qpf from .31 to .61 over o6z out in the valley. This increased the snow potential for Augusta from 2.1" to 4.7".