stormy

Ive been expecting a change for some time now in late Feb, or March. Is this it? That is the $64,000 dollar question. It is very nice to witness the GFS and ECM both looking at a same general opportunity timeframe 10 days out.

A definite improvement over 00z for the ECM. 500 energy tracks 50 miles farther north as it crosses NC. The weenie map gives me 6 - 7 inches compared to a half inch at 00. Hopefully, this is the beginning of a trend for everyone. If we can only drop those thermals surface and aloft.

Considering the past 45 days over Va/Maryland I must agree. This threat as advertised by the 18z GFS will not verify because intensification will be insufficient to produce the needed amount of dynamic cooling for snow outside of higher elevations if at all. Please Dear God, let me be wrong. This pattern must break at some point.

The pattern will shift in late February or March. Will it be in time for the coastal plain like D.C. or will it only sweeten the higher elevations out west. I have received many April snowfalls of 1 - 8 inches in the past 60 years. Is this the year for 8 inches on April 7 like 1971 or will we measure the winter on Easter Sunday, April 9.

Does anyone have a site that gives historical data on Nino types for the past 50 years or more year by year. West based or East based.

You are 100% correct!! Some people pray for El Nino but in truth a Nino can be disappointing for snow in our region. Looking at 3 snowy winters in my area during the last 65 years, 2 were El Nino's and 1 La Nina. 1957-58: 50 inches snow was a +1.8 Nino. 1986-87: 52 inches snow was a +1.2 Nino. 1995 - 96 at 66 inches snow was a -.9 Nina............ Least snowy 1991-92 : 3 inches snow was a +1.7 Nino, 1972-73: 5 inches snow was a +1.8 Nino. Be careful what you pray for.

As I said yesterday, January has been a dry month for much of our region. The latest models are now continuing that pattern into February with both snow and rain for many areas.

November and December were wet for me. January has been very dry. Only 51% of normal first 27 days at 1.30".

In reviewing the comments of the last 3 hours I see quite a few comments about the winter Enso condition and snow. My general opinion about La Nina has been that my area is more likely to be dry winter or summer. I have liked El Nino in the winter because of an encouraged robust STJ and Virginia often being on the north cold side of systems. Looking back at snow drought years the past couple of days has surprised me. Two out of 4 significant snow drought years from the past 50 years have been El Nino's. A week ago I would have bet that all 4 snow droughts would have been Nina's or neutral. 1972-73 DJF +1.8 Nino 5 inches of snow, 1991 - 92 DJF +1.7 Nino 3.05 inches of snow Last winter was a DJF -1.0 Nina, yet I received above normal snowfall at 28.50 inches. These stats throw some cold water on the idea of always better with El Nino, at least for the Central Shenandoah.

That's 20/20............. After a cold/wet December and warm/dry January I believed the snow drought would end in February. The GFS/ECM and GEM all with run to run variance end the snow drought for much of Virginia before February 5. This has generally been repeating for a few days now, therefore more credence is attached.

Observing the daily disco of model madness reminds how fragile our intelligence is. 50 - 60 years ago, back in the 60's we at least had the sanity of synoptic weather maps!! A fan sent me an e-mail this afternoon asking my thoughts on a 10 day ECM shout on a MECS. Of course I gently explained that it would be gone the next run. Are there still people that still take this daily Nonsense verbatim?? We are trying to figure out the nuances of mother nature and foolishly connect AGW.

Edit: My 21 inches of snow last winter was for January only. The winter total was 28.50".

Snowfall is not guaranteed to be light in La Nina or guaranteed heavy in El Nino. Last winter was also a Nina but I received 21 inches of snow out here in the Shenandoah Valley. I believe we all can agree that a repetitive SER has been a factor this winter as it encouraged a storm track into the OHV & Lakes region where weakness existed. I also believe that most informed weather geeks agree that an upper level SER is encouraged in a Nina. THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT ALWAYS HAPPENS. But, it is not unusual to occur. During the past 50 years in my area, 4 snow drought winters proves the Enso state to not be an overwhelming factor. 1972-73 El Nino, 1980-81 neutral, 1991-92 El Nino, 2007-08 La Nina. My observation in recent years is that high pressure or ridging often dominates weather patterns in Virginia. CAD can often be a precipitation denier in winter because the dry air is difficult to overcome.

The SER has been a pain this winter but this is not unusual for a La Nina winter. My LR annual average snowfall is 24 inches. Looking back over detailed personal records back to 1979 I am heartened to find no consecutive snow droughts. The two lowest winters were 80-81 at 3.25" and 91-92 at 3.05". Last year, I was above average at 28.50" with 21.00 inches during January. 7 years ago today we were digging out from 18 inches of snow with 5 ft. drifts from the blizzard of 2016. Most of us will receive unknown amounts of snow during February and March. November - January will be better next year.

Cheer Up!! Historically, this is much more in tune with climatology, especially in December. Along and west of the Blue Ridge usually smiles................ You may be surprised next week, otherwise look forward to January and February.

The trough is too shallow and lifts out too quickly for Ian. He is left wandering around the southeast states for two or 3 days as a cold core extra tropical system. May have a tough time gaining enough latitude for D.C./ Winchester.

Happy that the GFS Icestorm for Friday/Saturday is gone. There will be a plenty of action later in February and March.

I'm only 15 miles from you. I have about 5 - 6 inches of snow/ice concrete on the ground from earlier storms. I want 1.5 inches of rain with temperatures in the 50's to get rid of some of this stuff. I donate any and all ice to D.C. folks.

I agree, unless the 12z GFS tomorrow sustains, what we are looking at now is NONSENSE.

The one harsh reality that many seem to ignore is that an ice storm creates suffering and misery for millions. The terrible results takes years to recover from. Minor ice is a nuisance except for the many who suffer inconvenience. Major ice cripples the communities affected.

I too have been very impressed with the GFS this winter. This is one time I hope it is high on glue or just goofy! 18z will be telling. Will it sober up or continue leading the way again?

The GFS is very fast in pushing the boundary south with no real support from the ECM, GEM or ICON. I have very low confidence in that solution or is that wishful wish casting after nearly $5000 tree damage from the severe icestorm of November 15, 2018.

The 06 GFS and 00 GEM is hinting at this scenario while the ECM makes a clean sweep.

The euro says possible CAD setup past 150 hrs.

The GFS is caving to the ECM with this run