stormy

I have reviewed Enso data for the past 40 years looking for analog years to compare to latest CPC predictions of at least +1.5. for November through January in region 3.4.. I find two: 91-92 at +1.5 and 09-10 at +1.6. I looked at total winter snowfall for my location in Augusta County for each winter and monthly precipitation totals for each year. 91-92 gave me only 3 inches of snow and 09-10 gave me 63 inches! How can this happen when both winters had similar Nino values as predicted for this winter? When I posted this anomaly back in July, Terpeast said that a strongly positive AO sometimes at +2.0 probably killed the 91-92 winter. November of 91 was dry at only 2.18" prec., Nov. of 09 was wet at 6.75". Normal is 3.54" December of 91 was wet at 5.25", Dec. of 09 was very wet at 7.03". Normal is 2.59". Jan. of 92 was dry at 2.08", Jan. of 10 was wet at 3.78". Normal is 2.95". February of 92 was dry at 2.36", February of 10 was also dry at 2.26". Normal is 2.86" My theory is that similar atmospherics will likely produce similar results with a +1.5 or + 1.6 Nino. The next 14 day AO is predicted neutral or slightly negative. Does anyone have any credible predictions for the December/January AO. What was the AO in December/January 09-10?

Well hello there my friend. Yes, and I have good reason. I have received .01" since midnight. Raleigh reports 1.26" . I pray that my winter routine gloats on tons of rain and 25 - 40" of snow(my forecast).

I agree but sometimes a fall pattern can persist through the winter. 1977 is an example.

This is a Miller B split. The later systems will likely be STJ vs NS. If no phasing occurs, forget it. I am just trying to illustrate that a moderate to strong El Nino can lead to disappointment with suppression and no phasing. My gut feel is we will be fine with a reversal of last winter. But, I am concerned.

Is this a preview of the winter?? I hope not!

Yes!, Snow geese were also jumping off cliffs in my region by 1958 after nearly a decade of snow drought winters. Little did we know that 12 years of winter joy was beginning in March of 1958. But, one big difference between 1958 and 2023 is because back then we just thought it was a case of bad luck that would end and it did. Now, we are almost constantly told by so many so called experts that this is the new normal that will likely only get worse.

The Dec. - Feb thoughts look better. The trend in the Jan. - Mar. map is not our friend for a wet winter. Its trending in the wrong direction. That dry slot in the OV is pressing. Hopefully in early November, it will reverse course. The CPC says today we have an 80% prob. of +1.5 or more in 3.4 in Dec.-Jan. . That is a strong signal for above normal snow for at least western areas.

Yes is the literal answer but these seasonal or monthly maps are always subject to significant change. To be safe in wet or dry the most pronounced anomaly is always preferred. We are in more of a fringe wet area with this map. To be safe in wet we are too far north.

I would enjoy more comfort if the Raleigh expectation was at Staunton/D.C.. My Valley region sorely needs a wet winter, well above normal to replenish a water table now 17 feet below April. If taken literally and we are 1" plus for January-March, that's not enough. 3 - 4 inches would be much better. Snow? if that is an only desire, this map looks fine.

Only one example: That has disappointment written all over it with slight variance.

I am beginning to be concerned more about precipitation than temperatures. An historical Nino gives heavy precipitation to the Carolina's and south with Va/Maryland being on the northern fringe. Nearly all current guidelines suggest this may be a suppression winter when we so desperately need heavy precipitation for the widespread drought, especially western areas.

What does this really mean????

37 low at my place.

Thanks Will. I understand completely. 384 hrs is wishcasting regardless of the source. A month or 3 months or 6 months is also wishcasting, even more so. There are many posts that do not pass reasonable scrutiny. As far as Snow Map Police, I couldn't care less. They are only foolishly criticizing a guessing game that they are addicted to. I look at the CFS and ECMWF longrange stuff occasionally as well as the Cansips and others. Some really put high hopes on or even debate micro elements in something that changes tomorrow or next week or next month. To me it is little more than trivial distraction. It was just a quiet Sunday morning and I decided to post something rather unusual for this early date. Here we are are looking at 12z and its gone!!!!

GFS predicts heavy snow in mts. of W.Va. Oct. 23.

The weather Gods will probably smile on your desires......................... This STJ stuff usually doesn't show up until later in November with a Nino.

Oct. 12 - 18 is now a model hint at STJ Nino influence for the winter. It will be interesting, especially for drought stricken portions of the MA.

I suffered a major ice-storm that cost thousands in cleanup on November 15, 2018. January 3, 2022 received 8 " snow with drifting. January 17,2022 another 8.5" snow mixed with sleet.

48 degrees early this morning. Frost threat early Monday morning.

I have received 26.40" for the year to date. The water table at the USGS test well at McGahaysville, 20 miles north of Waynesboro has dropped 16 feet since April. Increasing numbers of wells are failing.

Severe drought expanded in the Valley last Thursday:

46 degrees and clear at 7:30

This is the continuation of a very wet pattern for the past 3 to 4 months when N.E. Pa, S.E. New York and southern New England have had 150 - 300% of normal rainfall.

Latest NBM a little more conservative:

The 12z run has more punch than the 06z.