stormy

So close and yet so far away..................... Deficits are worsening.

Thank you for your explanation, it is appreciated. I completely agree that none of our seasonal guidance has much success past month one. We just aren't there yet.

I always enjoy reading analysis by true professionals! Those red letters below your username always adds credibility. Now, on to a non professional. A little over 4 months ago when I issued my winter forecast for my twice weekly newsletter, the CFS was predicting a colder than normal and wetter than normal winter, December - February. We had just the opposite. My track record for the past 15 years has been impressive, this year a total failure, because I weighted the CFS too heavily on what should have been a declining La Nina. The SER acted more like a Nina on steroids! Do any of you guys have any professional thoughts regarding how or why the CFS was such a failure for this past winter?

Larry Cosgrove now gives favorability to a west based Nino. Weak/moderate

The metrics assimilation cannot capture reality............................ Front crossing the Valley headed for D.C., crossing by 7 pm

In the Valley as the front is on our doorstep. Westerly winds to 38 mph and 72 degrees.......................

Winds should really kick up when the cold front extending from western Pa. down through eastern W.Va. passes through. I have had a gust to 28 mph during the past 30 minutes.

A slight over-performer last 24 hrs. 4 model blend was .21", received .37".

I have been amused with some on this forum who are obviously ignorant of this present reality. If this does not change, the coming summer will be parched toast. Is no one concerned when so many seem to be concerned about "why it doesn't snow anymore"..... This is a farcical joke!! The enso shift will probably intervene. I have observed a 6 month lag in enso shift to reality. This 6 month lag encourages an increase in rainfall by late summer and a better winter next year for the snow-lovers.

A portion of east-central Virginia was upgraded to moderate drought this morning!

Yes, it has been very dry for the last 30 days south, southeast and southwest of D.C.. Many areas only 25 - 50% of normal. Only areas with normal precipitation are northwest of D.C.. The U.S.D.A. Drought Monitor lists D.C. proper as being abnormally dry. During the past two weeks the percentage of Virginia abnormally dry has increased from 4% to 23%. If this pattern continues, many will be evolving into drought conditions during the spring.

WPC not optimistic about rain during the next 7 days

My storm total is .33". That puts me up to .98" rain and melted snow for the entire month of March. My 40 year normal for the first 25 days of March is 2.79"

.18 rain since yesterday morning out in the Valley. Thankful for every drop.

.04" rain last 24 hours

Only 25% of normal rainfall to date in March in Augusta. Prominent SER threatens potential rain through Saturday.

I agree with you 100%. I have been attributing my observed propensity for a prominent SER to a Nina state for nearly 3 years. I will be alarmed if a Nino allows a prominent SER next winter! I despise Nina's because they usually result in below normal rainfall for my area. 2021 was over 11 inches below normal. 2022 was only 1 inch below normal but we had precip. suppression during the winter when potential snow producing systems approached. The answer to our mystery is being able to accurately identify why the SER is so prominent in today's world.

17 .1 this morning out in the valley

The SER has been a pest all winter. This is not always but a frequent reality of La Nina. NOAA is projecting a 1.0 + El Nino for next year. I am interested in your thoughts for next winter based on a 1.0 + El Nino.

You create an interesting consideration for me and I appreciate your thoughts! You are obviously thrilled with your battery powered lawnmower. I made the transition to battery powered drills, screwdrivers in small tools years ago and I love them. I recently had a friend encourage me to think about a battery powered chainsaw. He says that a commercial grade heavy duty saw does an amazing job.

I would be very happy if life brought me a lot of this for the next few months

I recorded VERY COLD 7 am at 12.1 on my Davis Vantage VUE and 13.1 on my Taylor. A lot of peach fruit buds frozen.............. Probably 80% at least.

The forecast discussion from Sterling this morning indicated that most of our region is 3 - 4 inches below normal precipitation ytd. I have a live stream running through a portion of my property. Usually, high water levels from heavy rains flush out siltation prone channels at least once a year. It has been 3 years since heavy rains produced water levels high enough to flush these channels. We get light to moderate rains occasionally but not heavy enough to produce run-off.

Keep the faith my good friend. You will be fine over the next several years. These short term cycles have repeatedly occurred over the past 100 years.