stormy

Out on the end of The Atlantic City Pier in Morehead City, Ophelia will be a hurricane when she comes ashore later tonight, regardless of what the NHC says.............

The latest NHC track is 20 - 30 miles west of the bay up to Baltimore. The latest NBM D.C rainfall total is 2.62 inches.

I noticed at 7 am that the 00z ECMWF 10M windfield brought the core of circulation over D.C. by 12z Sunday. The NHC at 11 am has now adjusted the track westward to just east of D.C. by Sunday morning.

I could be vain and say I'm batting 1000............. But honesty is one of my highest attributes! I thought the 18z12 NAM would shift east from Richmond toward consensus up the bay and the NHC track. H--- it shifted west to Lynchburg!! But, I believed the 12z to be too juicy....... I dropped from 4.12" to 3.02"............. Winning streak continues! I'll practice some more before the snow flies.

I nailed the huge shift in the ECMWF yesterday with a lucky bet. I feel lucky again today. I therefore predict the incoming 18z NAM12 will dry somewhat for western areas.

I received 5.65" from Isabel on Sept. 18, 2003. Upper Sherando Lake received 20.2"!!

As I predicted yesterday evening, the 00z ECM caved and moved west. Cape pointed out yesterday evening that Mt. Holly was using the NBM because of inconsistencies with the globals. The NBM is a blend of more than 40 models that averages out an outlier like yesterdays ECM. I produce an abbreviated NBM for my newsletter quite often by blending 4 - 7 models. My 4 model blend at 6pm yesterday was .70" for my location. The NWS NBM was at .75". Remember, the ECM was 0. This morning, my 4 model blend is 1.06. The NWS NBM is .76" for me and 1.85" for D.C.. Some models say that a sharp cutoff can occur on the western side. (the Valley)

The NBM is very close to the GFS and GEM. The problem is with the Euro which has been all over the world. I predict that it will come back west with the 00z run. During recent years the ECMWF has often been known as the King. Those days are over, unless. Will the Euro pull a monstrous coup with the off the coast drought enhancer???

Make that the 00 and 12z

The WPC is trashing the 06 and 12 ECMWF with this 1:37 3 day

I'm down in Augusta County near Staunton/Waynesboro.

You and I both! It has been 2 months since I received 1 inch from one system. I received 7.39" from Fran on Sept. 6, 1996. Big Meadows up on the Skyline Drive received 15.61 inches in 24 hours.

The Shenandoah Valley is the center of severe drought from Staunton to Winchester. The latest GFS/GEM predicts that the coming weekend could offer inferior relief. Maybe 1 inch when we need 6 inches............

100% agreed

Put the 18z GFS in the bank and stop the Nonsense!

The ECMWF now says nobody inland of the bay gets any rain on the weekend. The North Atlantic HP collapses to the southeast opening up a clear escape route from building HP over eastern Canada. GFS and GGEM are hanging on.

The next weekend weather hinges on the strength and tenacity of potentially blocking HP over the north Atlantic. The 18z GFS is trying to cave to the ECM by slightly weakening the HP and displacing 150 miles to the SE. This disrupts the trajectory of Atlantic moist feed into the system which still comes inland. Saturday would be the wettest day in this scenerio.

BAD news!!!! The ECM kills the weekend system. Erodes the BH and strings out ATC. Weaker system rides north from Florida by Tuesday giving lighter rain to IA. I still have my fingers crossed for pouring rain next Saturday and Sunday. Go GFS and GEM!!!

The 12z GFS and GEM stand pat with an inland runner. Out here in Augusta County the 06z run gave a blend of 2.94". The 12z run gives a blend of 2.99". I'll take it after a total to date for Sept of 1.39".

A complete bust yesterday as only .05" fell in the valley. 1.55" 40 miles to my west. Next weekend, I must side with the GFS and GEM as blocking HP in the North Atlantic with weakness in the OHV sets the stage for an inland runner.

I never really paid attention to this thread before but during the past 30 minutes I have really enjoyed reading thoughts and experiences from you folks! Though suffering from drought, we have enjoyed a wonderful garden this year. We harvested a near record 3 bushels of kenebec potatoes from a planted 10 pounds! Have harvested over 10 bushels of tomatoes from 6 vines! Canned 50 qts. and gave away bushels. Many have commented on the finest tomatoes ever seen! My fresh hot banana peppers add spice to every evening meal.

With the CPC update this morning, region 3.4 is now +1.6. Nov. thru January is now 71% of 3.4 region +1.5 or more...................... This is excellent for my 88% likelihood of a winter of above normal snowfall west of the Blue Ridge at +1.46 or more. My 24" 40 year average is now at 25" - 40".

Severe Drought now exists from Staunton to Winchester. Tens of millions of dollars are being lost in agricultural production. My stream stopped flowing today for the first time in 21 years. The weekend offers paltry rainfall compared to what is needed.

Back on August 11 when I predicted in this thread that the Atlantic would come alive in the next few weeks I was basing this on the ECM predicted Sept. MSLP. This has shifted a little with the 9/01 update but the August MSLP for Sept. was certainly a harbinger. Jose and Katia were so quick and gone that they fell through the cracks for me. Just as well!! The NHC progs Lee to be a major cat. 4 on Sunday at 65w. The 18z GFS takes Lee north 200 miles west of Bermuda on Thursday. It may later threaten Atlantic Canada. The spaghetti models still re-curve Lee by 70w but that may become problematic. If we can pump that NA ridge and hold the trough over the OV, we may be in business. A long shot but better than no shot.

Thanks for the correction! Somehow I missed Jose.