stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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The WPC challenges both the GFS and ECM by giving the Valley at least an inch of rain next week. The GFS gives .06" and the ECM gives .07".
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I do not claim to be an expert, but there is a lot of stuff going on to our south. I believe that we may come back to a wetter solution. Historically, when severe drought threatens in the MA, salvation arrives at the last minute.
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The wet pattern for next week has been mostly cancelled.
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After 24 hrs. the models thankfully still believe that we turn wet next week from a blocky pattern with a cut-off ULL nearby. For Augusta County, the 6 day qp ending Sat. June 24 is GFS 4.11", ECM 5.53", GEM 3.30". This gives a blend of 4.31"
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For the first 14 days of June, I have received .12". Normal would have been 1.75". 6% of normal.
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This morning, GFS, ECM and GEM all see a wet pattern developing late next week. Probably only one run away from collapse but nice to look at.
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18z GFS is very dismal for rain during the next 10 days.
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The widely ranging totals are to be expected in June. The Va. State Climatoligst used to tell me. Jim, we have to go into the spring wet, otherwise it will be very easy to slip into drought. We went into the spring dry this year. Drought will be likely this summer unless we witness a complete reversal of the pattern.................... Will it be a drought disaster???
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Thank you very much for all the work you put into this. I see a scatter effect since the 60's that cannot be definitive toward any end result.
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In Cincinati??
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42 degrees with blue skies at 6:30 The ULL over Maine is finally shifting east and 500 mb winds are backing to NW.
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OK...... Whats your drift????? The first 60 days were warmer than normal. The last 60 days have been cooler than normal.
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115 miles southwest of D.C., the atmospheric smoke is more pronounced than any previous day. It reminds of the atmospheric haze that was prominent during summer 50 years ago, but rare in recent years. 42 at 6 am.
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Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions will worsen during the next 7 days for most areas. There are some indications that the pattern may break down for next week.
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46 degrees at 6 am. This would have been normal for May 2.
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59 degrees at 2 pm on June 4 is 19 degrees below normal.
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46 degrees at 6:30. That's 12 degrees below normal.
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A complete reversal of the winter temperature pattern during the past 45 days.
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I received a total of 1.16". Waynesboro a few miles from me reported 1.57". But, most of Augusta County only received .02" - .50".
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I have been thoroughly disappointed in the globals recently. They don't have a clue which pivots 300 degrees between runs!!!! Anyone who believes their trash is busy looking for beachfront property in Winchester. The worst reality is that NWS still relies on their dribble. This is dismal on NWS. NWS constantly forecasts too much sun and too much wind for my area. The LWX folks??? Yes, I know the crock about how good they are compared to 10 years ago. I believe we should do better.
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North
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You beat me. I only live 3 miles from Waynesboro. I received .38" last 24 hrs compared to your .57".
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A station 5 miles southeast of Bristol reports 4.26" of rain since midnight!!!!. That ULL is really slamming that area!
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Congratulations!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I will look forward to your expert eye on the sky commentary next winter.
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34.8 degrees at 6:30!!!!! Tied for the COLDEST May 26 since 1893. It was also 34 in 1988.
