stormy

An observation tells me we are still in the game for Saturday though some are giving up. 24 hours ago my 3 model blend for Augusta was 7 inches. Now, that same GFS, ECM and GEM blend is 7.3 inches. As I said 24 hours ago.................. These models will hone in on a solution by tomorrow afternoon. It will not be a human solution, it will be the models.

That should be "primary highways".................... Only secondaries are "roads"..... education is priceless.

18 z GFS focuses heavier qp to inland areas. That makes the difference with snowfall totals.

18z GFS increases my Augusta snow from 5.4 to 9.1 inches

That's exactly what I need to clean my stream out! It has been 2 years.

Hmmm...... Saturday and Tuesday are now nearly tied!! 7.5" on Saturday and 6.9" on Tuesday. 10:1 GFS, ECM, GEM deterministic. Ensembles 3.8" Saturday, 4.5" Tuesday

This will likely be the first real winter storm for the Valley since Jan. 16, 2022 when 8.5 inches fell.

18z GFS doubles my snow from 5 to 10 inches. The front end thump is intense with the 18z.

If the trailing wave becomes the storm would that push the height of the storm into Sunday?

I smelled a rat 24 hours ago when I said the GEM was beginning to focus on what the EURO was only sniffing at. Now, the GFS, GEM aand ECM all sense potential significant flaws with the idea of a major winter storm. Thermals are a problem and this system seems to be losing the ability to really crank! The GFS has cut the qp in half for my area and dropped the snow from 14 to 5" in one run. The ECM drops from 12 to 8 ", but the GEM increases from 2 - 8". This can still be a beast if the coastal bombs over Va. Beach and additional cold air is wrapped in from the north. I believe the models will hone in on a solution by Thursday afternoon.

This is a classic track from the 60's!!

1028 HP north of Superior is diving S.E. faster.

12 z GEM warms the 850 temp. from minus 5 to plus 1 from 00z to 12z over Augusta, Sat. 7 pm. 24 hr. qp drops from 1.28 to .81. A little concerning but an outlier at this juncture. The 12z Euro keeps us in pay dirt but the margin of safety is shrinking as the 850 & 925 warms a few degrees on the 12z compared to 00z early Saturday night. Is the GEM focused on a trend that the EURO is only beginning to sniff. The 18z GFS may be important.

Amen

Out here in the Valley, that has been my observations since the 60's. The first killing frost in the fall is now often 3 - 4 weeks later than the 60's. Late October compared to late Sept. In the spring the last killing frost is often 3 - 4 weeks later than the 60's. Mid May compared to late April.

This is a no brainer! Anywhere west of the Allegheny Front in West Virginia is great. NOAA says snow falls in Elkins more days of the year than any other reporting station east of the Mississippi. Stay away from those Ski Resorts unless you have a couple million to throw away. Always keep in mind elevation.

They usually have a much sharper perception than humans. Humans are too consumed in knowing when the next 384 hour ensemble or 7 month model is coming in.

Whether its the 4th or 7th or the 13th. The amount of gloom is amazing. 50 years ago before all the nonsense with models, folks didn't worry about all of this crap, and it occasionally snowed. The historical sweet time has always been Jan. 15 to Mar. 15. Considering all the possibilities I don't believe we will be disappointed. Many will be hilariously happy with 5". We don't need 18 inches.

I was disappointed to receive only .52". A definite underperformer from the modeled 1.60" on Monday.. But, happy that December produced 189% of normal at 4.91". Hopefully the STJ will stay active the rest of the winter and continue delivering above normal precip. Our water table has came up around 5 feet, still 17 ft. below April.

Comparing modern times to the 60's can be risky. My detailed records reveal a high of 65 for Christmas day of 1964 and 63 for Christmas day of 1965. January of 1966 began with a cloudy, showery Jan 1 with a high of 56.

The historic Jan. 66 blast didn't begin until Jan. 22. During the next 2 weeks we had nearly 40 inches of snow. Everybody needs to settle down and be patient!

You are 100% correct!!!!!!!

I'm fine with you Cape. I believe you are 20/20.

The main reason "this place needs a lift' is because it is almost incessantly told how bad everything is.

Historically, Jan. 15 - March 15 for my area. I don't consider the snow season over until April 10. Several 6+" snows in early April last 50+ years.