stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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A super active STG is prayed for in Jan - Mar. 1966 was bland on Jan. 10, but from Jan 20 thru Feb. we had historical snow.
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The first time I experienced this was way back in the 70"s, it was unbelievable, sun on the east side but a dark roll of clouds on top of the mountain. When we came out on the west side, it was pouring snow!
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The Allegheny tunnel on the Pa. Turnpike often witnesses sun on the east side and snow falling on the west side. Amazing.........................
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I pray that you are correct.
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It has not!!!!! I have no patience with simpletons who give up on aspirations so easily. Dear God!!!! What is our society coming to ???
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1.13" since Friday. GFS, ECM ,GEM,and ensembles as well as the NBM were all very dry or all wet on Thursday afternoon. They only expected around a blended total of .20" in Augusta.
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12-21 would be perfect!!!!! 1 day after my GEFS prediction. Thanks Allan!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The system headed our way from Alabama has model doubled in rainfall potential since yesterday.
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This is what I was talking about last night. That trough tries to come east but backs up as hts. build over the east. Makes for benign conditions 8 - 20.
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I see some merit in your thoughts. Looking beyond 10 days, the GEFS H5 charts find a trough developing along the west coast of California/Oregon. Not Good with a zonal east coast.
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18 z GFS says warmer than normal the next 10 days. Beyond that is fantasy-land.
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His other 50 inches next couple months will make up for it. IAD 43 inches should equate to 50 at PSU Knob.
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Augusta Phil said NADA, foolishness. He left me hanging with the GFS op and the GEFS. When in drought, leave it out is well known with professionals. But, throwing that aside, I cannot find supporting temperatures with any model except the op GFS. That is NONSENSE! We are so starved for snow that we are grasping for straws............................. The 18Z GFS has warmed and reduced snow potential. It is left hanging with no support. I see scattered snow - showers Tue/Wed with any accumulation mostly confined to western highlands above 1800 ft..................................
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According to my records, I received accumulating snow on December 5, 6 times since 2000. 2002 5.2 inches, 2003 6.5 inches, 2005 3.7 inches, 2007 1 inch, 2009 6.0 inches, 2018 1.5 inches. There's something about December 5.
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I won't believe it until Augusta Phil says it. I have an appointment with him at 5:45.
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Severe to Extreme Drought still has the western portion of the tristate area under a firm grip. Earlier model expectations of improvement have failed. Latest USGS analysis of the water table says Augusta/Rockingham is 21.88 feet below April. The 2 inches of rain last week only brought up the water table .38'!!!!
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Thanks PSU, this composite graphic gives great support to my earlier posted preference to a Cincinnati/ Nashville trough axis.
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Agree 120%! I have felt for quite a while that our precipitation deficits can at least partially be blamed on trough axis too far east. IMO our precipitation chances including snow would increase with a trough axis persistently closer to Nashville/Cincinnati instead of D.C.
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Low of 9.1 at 7 am. Record low at Staunton since 1893 was 10 in 1967.
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GEFS hints at a possibility on Dec. 5. Historically, Dec. 5 is a first snow benchmark.
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Respectfully , we are at December 1 and still in a drought pattern in a moderate/strong El Nino. Predictions 6 months ago from experts and long range models expected better. "What" can be answered by when this will change. I'm not being disrespectful, but, I would enjoy an answer that is credible.
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27 at 5 pm and headed toward 5 GEM, 18 GFS and 20 ECM............
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Its better to be be pissed off than to be pissed on.......................... Rejoice!!!
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Can anyone imagine someone who believes it's not cold enough to snow?????? Our precipitation patterns have changed whereby we are mostly cold and dry or warmer with sprinkles with fleeting troughs racing by to our northwest. If the future includes a pattern with generous precipitation from the south or southwest, we may get lucky, otherwise.....
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No rain yesterday west of the Blue Ridge.
