stormy

06z GFS brings a hurricane into the southeast around Myrtle Beach around the 18th.

44.5 this morning. The lows this week since Monday, 40.7, 42.3, 44.5 would be normal for mid October. .80" rain total for August. 28.39 total for the year. 27.99 normal.

42.7 early this morning.

40.7 this morning....................... One 39 low not far away.

44 this morning........................ Low 40's have been a habit the past several mornings.

Glorious weather for August 27.............. So often mid 80's to low 90's............... Today, 70 F. This is a testament to the 2025 gracious pattern.

43.1 this morning. Normal for Oct. 18. 28.1 at Canaan NWR.

45.7 degrees at 6:45!! That would be normal at Staunton on October 10.

.36" yesterday. Hot spot in Augusta was Weyers Cave with .75". A 5 location blend at Charlottesville was .47".

The NWS drops POP from 60% to 30% for Sunday. The drought returns with very low Pops the next 15 days...............................

40's for western lows early to middle portions of next week.

June and July were wet. August has been very dry at only 19% of normal moisture thru 8-20.

Early cold shots have absolutely no clue to the following winter......................... This is something that has been demonstrated many times. If anyone wants a clue, come back about Thanksgiving.

54 degrees early this morning.

This is a classic, sometimes encountered. A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north. The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go. This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

The models have dried for Wednesday and Thursday and Sterling has went wetter for Staunton. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-79.05445863492788&lat=38.16380555335593

Please do Will. I always look forward to your Updates!!

The Euro and GEM have caved to the dry GFS for the end of the week. The GFS has been dry consistently while the Euro has been wet consistently. This is a big win for the GFS and a kick in the groin to the Euro.

49 degrees at 6:30 felt like fall. Chilly CAD with cloudiness should hold afternoon temps. down Tuesday/Wednesday.

The Euro has sucked up some GGEM juice!

Euro Weeklies and GEFS Extended in general agreement for August precip. Dry, D.C. east, wet west of D.C. especially up the spine of Apps. Heat Dome likes the 4 corners ( better than Texas, east), with a slight semblance of troughiness for the east.

I agree with your August 11- 18 thoughts. The Weather August thru October looks warmer and drier than normal in the MA . Tropical activity late Sept./ and Oct. could alter this.

I received 1.32" . .5 north reported 2.30".

A very pleasant afternoon at 79 degrees. Convective action in the I-81 corridor has spiced up the afternoon. 75 at Staunton after .69" rainfall, 76 at Churchville after 1.03 " I received my normal .01" but the cool air with northerly breezes is absolutely wonderful!!!!!!!

The Euro weeklies and GEFS extended have broken a several week qp agreement toward August as they have consistently agreed on above normal precip for Virginia. The Euro has now shifted toward drier than normal. They both agree on a 500 mb. heat dome centered on Texas, NM and OKL. But, the Euro is east centered compared to 10 days ago. This eliminates any attached troughiness with a dominate NW flow. A dominate NW flow is usually drier than normal, especially for western areas without an attached trough upstream, because it puts us in the rain shadow of the mts. If this upper heights pattern verifies, I would have to lean in the direction of the Euro for the next 30 days. I have received 4.47" during the first 21 days of July compared to a normal 2.94" thru 21 days. 152% of normal. August may flip if the Euro is correct.