stormy

If the GFS moves north in 90 minutes. OK last minute north jaunts replay. Otherwise, forget it. The Nam nest also likes the 12k jaunt. That's nice.

We have had a weekend of wild speculation, high expectations and sobering disappointment. My post at 4:28 Friday afternoon said: We can't know at this time whether this will be a trace to 1 inch or 10 - 20 inches. Speculation will provide no answers. We should have a better handle by Monday. On Friday afternoon the GFS gave me 2.3 inches and the EURO gave me 13.7 inches. Since then the EURO has sometimes tremendously over hyped some 15 - 20 inch accumulations for what is now for many considered a non event. The EURO gets a D- for this event. The GFS gets a B-. My current 10:1 expectation 1.0" Kuchera is 1.9"

Kuchera means nothing with a right hand turn. But, I emphasize, this is early.

GFS heads south again

Like I said earlier, 12z Monday will pass judgement, but east of I-95 will likely be bombed!

16:1 out here

That will happen by Monday 12z.

When I started posting potential for my Newsletter on Thursday, a 4 model blend was 4.5". Yesterday it went to 6.8". This morning 7.7". Now 8.3" Kuchera is 11.2. At 48 hrs., Monday 12z will pass judgment.

Wednesday/Thursday has a lot of potential. We can't know at this time whether this will be a trace-1 inch or 10 -20 inches. Speculation will provide no answers. Many factors will create the ultimate solution. We should have a better handle by perhaps Monday.

You need to re educate yourself a little. March 2, 1980- Elizabeth City , 25 inches of snow. That's a little over 2 ft.

18 z GFS is suppression city

I'll send all of mine to you. Where do you live?

I warmed about 1 degree overnight. This thankfully prevented significant icing on trees. 7 inches of compacted snow with 35 degrees at 9:15.

I'm at 31.6 and the light rain is beginning to freeze on trees

The 18z 3kNam says I should be 35 degrees at 4 pm !!! HO HO, 27 minutes to go and I'm at 31.6.

The dead Euro is cramping my late afternoon 4 model blend. Guess I'll have to use 6z. I was hoping to get my ice threat tonight down a few notches below .27"

My greatest fear for tonight is white pine limbs already laden with snow from yesterday. Longer limbs wont take a lot of additional weight before they begin to snap. I lost about a dozen last week.

8" with several reports of 9/10 within 10 miles. For tonight, I tossed the NAM 3k which unreasonably depicts .80 zr to 0 zr within 10 miles. A 4 model blend of .23 zr seems reasonable. I expect mostly on elevated surfaces. 32 degrees at noon.

5.0 inches with heavy snow during the past couple of hrs.. 28.2 degrees

The models have been advertising this for over 24 hrs. Potential has diminished somewhat during the past 18 hrs.

Light to moderate snow has been falling for 4 hours. 1.5 inches on the board. 28.6 degrees

NAM nest gives D.C. proper about 2 inches more than 06z.

Reports of 4 - 5 inches west of Roanoke in southwest Va. and southern W Va. in the Beckley region.

My 4 model blend at 7 am is 8.7 inches. Began snowing about 8.

I was surprised about 2 hrs ago when first looking at the HRRR and hour much it dry slots my area.