stormy

The latest HRRR gives me 1.46" rain later today and D.C.- 0.................... NONSENSE!

The more you pay attention to the models, the more you realize that they all often stink.

3.05"...................... A few locations within 15 miles report over 6.00 inches!! Others, less than an inch.........

1.00" in the bucket at 12:15.

The batting average on this range will be 1000

.27" in the bucket at 8 am. My 8 model blend thru Friday has increased from 1.28" to 1.50".

Will: I would suggest that you look at the NAM 3 k This is likely closer to reality.

Its not all that complicated. The blocking ridge to our north is simply too strong for Eight to move north into Virginia. N.C. gets the lions share of the rain. Southwestern locations in my backyard should do better than D.C.. My 8 model blend has increased from 1.23" at 6 am to 1.28" at 2 pm.

I have been interested in watching the AI with curiosity about possible future superiority compared to physics based models. A comparison of the last 4 runs is not impressive.

The AI caved to the GFS and about an inch of rain.......................... The war between a strong ridge to the northeast and tropical/hybrid low pressure shifting northwest from Cape Fear will have the final word. Of interest, the ICON has jumped from .25" for Augusta to around 4.00".

The most important part of your interpretation is that "the ridging to the north is likely to prevent an escape route". This can be very important for rain producing systems or snow producing systems in winter. Historically, when the right combo. occurs with blocking to the north, look out.

12Z EURO comes out it drought trance and gives me 5.00 inches next week compared to .05" from 06Z

The Euro AI now completely misses us to the east next week. The 18z GFS totally disagrees......................... A nice test..................................

Rain advancing north into Virginia by late Monday from likely tropical development in South Carolina coastal area.

I get your drift! I occasionally post unusual model thoughts summer and winter, but my confidence level is always very low beyond 7 days because the next run usually corrects.

Bring it on!!!

36.1 at 7 am. A new record, the old record was 37 in 1988. No Frost..........................

I think most of us will be OK except for some light scattered frost in low lying areas. I'm 49.3 at 9:45 which gives comfort. If I was under 45 I would have greater concern. I looked around Highland and the coldest is Vanderpool at 42, Monterey is 47. We'll know in about 8 hrs..

FROST ADVISORY !!!!!!! After 37.0 at 7 am, even colder tonight with residents warned of possible frost!!!!!!!!!!! https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VAZ025&warncounty=VAC015&firewxzone=VAZ025&local_place1=4 Miles SSE Churchville VA&product1=Frost+Advisory&lat=38.1779&lon=-79.1425

A fire season peak occurs in your area in the fall after deciduous trees lose their leaves.

44 again this morning. The next 10 days look cooler than normal with below normal precip. Thunderstorm season is over. We're at the mercy of very weak tropics.

Thanks my friend! I agree, 2020 was remarkable but only 14 hurricanes when 2005 had 15. I was not really impressed with last year as Idalia was the only land-falling hurricane.

Yes, I know it's still early, but it is absolutely amazing how so many truly believed 10 - 20 years ago that Climate Change would be like pouring gasoline on a fire for hurricane frequency and strength. It was so bad that some insurance companies stopped issuing policies. Now, a record breaking season predicted for this year. I look forward to being wrong on November 5 when Sara gives me 10 inches of rain and a flood.

43 degrees early this morning. That's 15 degrees below normal! 5 years ago this morning it was 60 degrees.

My snow-drought has been 7 years. I seriously doubt that this short range aberration could honestly be significantly attributed to Climate Change which should take at least 25 years to establish a trend. Throughout history, short and long range weather patterns appear, disappear and re-appear. I have been predominately dry for the past 4 years. Prior to that, I had 3 wet years. Historically, La Nina winters are low snowfall for Va/Maryland, therefore this winter will likely continue the trend. More on that later.