stormy

You are a very smart and reasonable person. Those can be preciously rare commodities. Regarding all the rants about the GFS, I gave fair warning of this possibility 2 hours ago. I believe the 12z run is probably little more than a blip since the GEFS did not follow suit. We will see at 18z.

a balmy 14 early this morning

A $5,000 disaster for my trees was November, 2018

My 10 pm Sunday prediction has evolved to a 100% verification score with the inclusion of the GFS and GEM det. For Augusta County, the 7 am Kuchera model/ensemble blend is 18.2 inches from 4 pm Sat. - 6 pm Sunday. The 10:1 blend is 10.2 inches. IMO, we have reached a peak of prediction. Strong hp up north is still a suppression possibility. The greatest threat during the next 3 days is a downside default because this storm does not fit into 6 month pattern reality. Pattern recognition can be very important in weather forecasting. PSU has said recently that we have wasted many opportunities this winter and that is a disappointment. Here's hoping that everyone is thrilled come Monday morning.

My 7 model blend for Augusta has increased from 6.5" at 7 am to 11.4" at 3 pm. I have to admire the GFS for sticking to it's guns with suppression from strong arctic hp., but the tide seems to be going out........................... I am reminding myself that this is still 5 days away........................... Honestly, I will be very happy with 6 - 8 inches....................

Last night at 10, I posted that significant changes would occur by or before the 12z runs Tuesday. A huge change with 12z today. The GEM skyrocketed from 1.3" to 20.5" in my backyard. More changes are on the way......................

I expect a significant change in this threat by or before the 12z runs on Tuesday.

Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!! Blame it on the goofy Euro!

For the next 7 days, 4 ensembles and the ECM control give my area a blended 9.3 inches of snow. The GFS control gives me 0..................... This chart will be very interesting to follow-up on.

The Euro AI deterministic 24/25 event can be given a 20% chance of verification 7 days out. That's better than 10% on deterministic Op. AI ens just downloading.

That's cool, GreyHat and I used to be drinkin buddies.............

Please forgive me!!! I'm so sorry! I'll send 4 to D.C. from my cut. AND, 4 to you from Roanoke. I'm serious!! If you don't believe me, just wait til 00z................

I don't mind sharing! I'll send half of my 8 to D.C. for the 00 run. 4 and 4 seems like a good deal.

09-10 was a once in a lifetime pattern. Nino with +1.0 - +1.5 , NAO -1+, AO Dec.09 -3.4, Feb. 10 -4.2...................... Will we ever see this again??

I received a heavy dusting of snow 6:30 - 7:30. Perhaps .15" Short range models about 1 hr. too slow.

I always liked Christmas, but make that 1-25!

Thursday 12" snow on 1-25 Yesterday, snow disappeared but 0 F. on 12-25..... I said, no-way. This morning, Euro has been re-born to 18 F. on 12-25...... LOL again

You nailed it Chuck, if it materializes. -2 to -4 AO signals are quite often precursors to significant winter weather events.

That's irrational modeling by the EURO. With excellent radiational cooling, maybe. With a 13 mph wind and 76% cloudiness over Augusta, 0 ain't gonna happen.

Too much chaos! The models are on a roller coaster from run to run.................... My 30% on the EURO from yesterday drops to 10%.

They need to get smoked. Winter to date, they are 40% under normal snowfall.

That's called chaos. Scientific reality

I like the 3k resolution and hourly updates.

Well, the EURO 25 threat survived 00z, but much weaker and strung out with less UL support. I dropped from 12 inches to 5 as a measure of strength. I'm a little surprised that it survived! And now the GFS jumps into the fray for a very active last 10 days of January. Bring on the 10:1 stuff. I don't want to measure more dust.

I agree! After pondering, I just reduced that 40% to 30% for my newsletter which sails at 4 pm. If it still populates with significance at 24 hrs., that 30% can increase to 50%. Of course, some weenies are already hyped to 80%, which is a recipe for heartbreak. Some of those read my newsletter. That's another reason to drop to 30% with a caveat about 9 days out. Snow-lovers thrive on hope. I don't wish to be the snow grinch to others. 30% can be a happy median. 40% is a little too bullish.