stormy

Its the most wonderful time of the year!!! A time when speculation is high for the coming winter. This year, our glee is low because of a coming La Nina winter......... Last year it was high because of El Nino............ What did that amount to ???? I have researched analogues for the past 70 years and I have to believe that we will have another low snowfall winter............ Do I believe we can simply blame it on La Nina or other Nonsense? No I have also identified a bias toward a dry La Nina winter. At least one other factor as stressed by PSU is the PDO. I have identified 7 analogues back to 1955. The CPC suggests that a Dynamic/Statistical blend for the coming winter will be -.6 to -.7. This is based on my location which receives an average of 24 inches of snow and 15.45 inches of rain from November through March. We begin with 2023 which averaged - 6.3 La Nina, I received 1.5 inches of snow and 14.21 precip. Low snow and Precip.. 2001- 6.33 La Nina, 5.5 inches snow and 10.52 precip. Low snow and precip. 1984 - 6.33 La Nina, 10.0 inches snow and 25.72 precip. Above normal precip. 1975 - 5.6 La Nina, 9.8" snow, 12 .66 precip. Low snow and precip. 1972 - 6.6 La Nina, 4.7" snow,, 9.05 precip. Low snow and Precip. 1965 -5.6 La Nina, 24.5" snow and 14.37 Precip. Mother Nature always found a way to snow during the '60's. The PDO was -.90 in January of 65 1955 - .7, 13.1 " snow and 17.41 Precip. 86% of the time during the past 70 years we have had a low snowfall winter with a - .6 La Nina and 86% of the time we have had a dry winter. My broad blend gives us 10 inches of snowfall during this coming winter..........................

31 degrees at 7 am.

The latest CPC info says a -.6 - .7 . This certainly will be marginal but this level if accurate will be a downer for winter snowfall. Moderate La Nina's don't smile on us for snowfall.

Possibly no value, but the long term Enso says we will likely have have a below normal snowfall winter with La Nina. Cape, give me hope!!!!

Hey, I love this exercise in futility!!!!!!! This is quite reasonable within my 70 year research of Enso that I will post soon.

My posts are based on intelligence based on the past 100+ years of climatology. Yours are probably based on a warped brain from 36 years of Nonsense. But, I do wish you well.

He can be entertaining at times but some of his nonsense last week was beyond the pale!

37. 1 this morning. I was below freezing for 6 consecutive nights before the streak broke yesterday morning.

32.4 this morning. 19 days since rain.

You need to take a break..........................................

The Great Flood of 1985 had about a 10 day lag before more rain.. We are up to 17 days now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

27.9 this morning!

28.5 degrees this morning!!! Clear, calm and heavy frost.

This likely carries us thorough through November ..........................

The CPC through November 8 calls for VERY DRY conditions..................... LA NINA sets in........

La Nina cool seasons are dry 84% of the time. More on this with my winter outlook, soon.

CAPE, try to understand, when I peruse this site, I'm usually skimming through without looking at or paying attention to nonsense or jokes. If a joke is directed at a post of mine, I pay attention. I very rarely direct a post toward another person unless it is 95% positive and designed to be helpful. People who know me understand how helpful I can be. I sincerely appreciate the tone of PSU's response. Please don't put it down with more nonsense. Nothing would please me more than to be friends with PSU.

A balmy 60 at 7 am. Behind the front, 38 degrees at Spruce Knob which should receive around an inch of snow tomorrow.

PSU, I do apologize. I already had a short fuse for other reasons. Bill Murray was the straw that broke the camels back. My criticism was ill conceived without properly digesting your other posts before and after Bill Murray. You and I have had an interesting interaction for a few years, sometimes like mixing sae 30 and water. I must say that I am impressed with your lean so far this fall. More on long-range cycles and less on all warm all the time. I have started work on my winter outlook. Yours is amazingly close to mine from 60 years of analogues. Have a good day!!

Bob: Thanks for your reasonable assessment. "Some setups more like a Nino than a Nina" , carries intelligence. You by yourself could easily make this board reasonable......................... As usual, PSU is a total failure.............. He has an amazing fan-base with nothing but crap...... Nothing more need be said.................

It is easy to see that the rest of October will be very dry. What will November thru March bring?????? This will be crucial to any snowfall probabilities. What are the thoughts of our experts??????

31.3 with heavy frost. 14 degrees colder than normal. The tied record for this date was 27 in 1994 and 1964.

shootin for 30 at 7 am...........................

38 with fog this morning.

Many western zones including Augusta will be under a frost threat Thursday night. My low is expected to be 31 - 34.