stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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We will all do well to remember that no human and no model is consistently right 2 - 3 weeks out. Once in a while somebody scores by guessing but that is the luck of the draw. I am on record believing that February will not be anomalously as cold as January and March will probably trend colder. Mother Nature likes to get cold in the eastern states this winter. This CPC thing is only an educated guess on Jan. 25. If I had to nit pick, I would doubt the precipitation maps more than the temperature maps. Unfortunately, we are having another dry winter and I doubt a wet pattern the first 3 weeks of February. If the CPC or models had been consistently correct with precipitation predictions for the past 6 months, Severe Drought would not be on D.C.'s southern doorsteps right now.
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There will be ups and downs but that will be an average according to the CPC.
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The latest CPC package keeps us firmly above normal temperatures through Feb. 21.
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January Medium/Long Range: Chasing more snow to close out the month
stormy replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
Does the moderate to severe drought enter into your considerations? A small amount of qp can be significant with snow depending on ratios, but I would like to have your opinion. -
9.8 this morning.
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Nice at 15 degrees and partly cloudy skies this morning. Normal low for this date is 23 degrees.
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The GFS says the next 15 days will be controlled by the continuing drought:
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In the 60's this was expected. But in the past 15 years we have been spoiled until this year. From March 1958 thru the 60's it was tough from November thru March. Young folks cannot relate because they didn't live through it.
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33.3 degrees at 4:15. This is the first time above freezing in 4 days. Going back to the 60's which I lived through, this is insane. Ice on ponds is 6 inches thick which has not been achieved in many years.
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Feels like a heat wave at 3.2 this morning!
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Bring it on!! My woodpile is getting low.
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-0.4 this morning. Harrisonburg reported -4.0.
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I think its almost inevitable as nearly always the case. A long cold pattern is followed by a mild pattern. When the arctic empties it takes a while to reload, if it is........ I would expect a milder at least first half of February, then a return to colder into March. GEFS most pronounced. ECM thinking about it.
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5.3 this morning. The cloud cover put a blanket over radiational cooling. Clear skies and calm winds would have bottomed out at zero to -3.0 7.2 at 8:30.
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Are you happy in your little corner of the world ???? I hope so.
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I compare rainfall records to 100 years ago but not temperature records for the reason that you illustrate. Measuring methods were vastly different 100 years ago and UHI had not kicked in which is a beast in the past 50 years.
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Exactly , and track of low pressure from central Va. to northern N.C.
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Either one is reasonable
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We'll see
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Within 50 hrs. the NAM seems to hone in. Beyond 50 hrs. it is useless. The 3 k NAM has me at 3.2" at 18z.................... 0 before..................
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The NAM 12 k is finally coming on board after total blindness. Now, 2" for me after a long run of 0. Of course, this is the NAM.
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My 3 model blend increased from 3.1" at 8 am to 4.0 at 2 pm. GFS increased from 4.6" to 6.2" , Euro 2.6 up to 3.8. CMC ens. 2.0". 3 - 5 seems reasonable for the Central Valley at this point.
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I'll take that before brutal cold on Monday and drifting snow!!!!
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It is odd to worry about liquid, but he is who he is. Everyone needs to understand that.
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The 18z NAM is beginning to see..... It was totally blind to the threat on Sunday at 12z.
