stormy

As I posted a few weeks ago. All weak Nina's have produced below normal snow for my area back to 1950 except 1964 - 65 which was .50" above normal with 24.50".

Up to .51" rain since 9:30 at 2:15.

The CPC drops from 71% in September to 57% now regarding a La Nina dominated winter.

.36" rain since 9:30.

After a very cold low of 21.8 this morning....................... A high of 48....................................... Close to an inch of rain in the offing thru Friday. Maybe 2 inches of snow in northern Highland above 3500 ft.

Really! My Goodness............................

Snow in Highland County Thursday night? The NAM says yes.

18z NAM increases my qp from .67 to .84" Thursday night. D.C. drops from .67 to .56" Up to an inch of snow 30 miles to my west in Highland.

Wow!! What a difference a day makes for qp potential from noon Thursday - 9 am Friday. My 3 model blend has increased from .26" at 2 pm yesterday to .95" 2 pm today. ECM 1.24", GEM 1.07", GFS .53"................. I'll take it after .10" in the past 40 days.

Its close to a hurricane on the 19th then snow for western areas by the 21st!!!!!!!!!

Jan 3, 2022- 8 inches of snow and drifting. Jan 7, 2022 - 3 inches snow. Jan. 17, 2022 - 8.5 inches snow. Jan. 28 - 1.3" snow Feb. 13 - 2.0" snow March 12 - 3.0" snow 21-22 gave me above normal snowfall !! How about this, guys?

Widespread??? No real doubt, Saturday thru Monday............. More than any time during the past 30 days!!! The question is: Will it be .10" or 1.00"?????

Thanks George!

Future Hurricane Patty is born: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/032054.shtml?

29 frosty degrees at 7 am.

If we want snow, we had better "make up for the lack of precip. on the back end". It takes moisture for snow.

I agree, but just imagine 1919 when it was 88!!!!! My high yesterday was 78 and 80 today.....................

Thanks Bob! I always enjoy reading your take on things. My memories of lots of snow and lots of cold always take me back to the 60's in the Valley. We frequently had skating ice on ponds and rivers in those days and usually plenty of snow for sleigh-riding down slopes and across frozen ponds with 6 - 8 inches of ice. But, we have had some good years since the 60's like 77-78 with 55" of snow. 79-80 with 49", 86-87 53", 09 - 10 with 63" and who could forget 95 - 96 with 63 inches of snow. Even 13 - 14 with 41 inches would be nice again. It will happen again and probably when we least expect it long- range.

You are exactly right!! That can make a huge difference. I have received 6 - 8 inches of snow when Charlottesville nearly a thousand feet lower received only rain. This has happened several times in memory. April 7 & 8 of 1971 Afton Mt. 7 miles to my southeast at 1850 ft. received 17 inches of snow. My backyard at 1350 ft. received 8 inches of snow and Charlottesville at 400 ft. received mostly rain.

You are almost certainly joking. How many readers research to verify validity of a thread before they reply???? Your argument is insane!

You are such a partisan fool, it is hilarious. What is the title of this thread?? "Anyone Know Why Jason Left Capital Weather Gang".......................

With the uproar at the madhouse called Wa. Po. during the past week, common sense is compelling evidence. Probably at least 75%. But I am man enough to not insist that I am always right. When I'm wrong I am man enough to apologize. Common sense serves very well for those who have it. Those who don't have it often make an ass of themselves when confronted with common sense. Jason and I were good friends 15 years ago when my handle on his sight before Wa. Po. was Augusta Jim. He viewed my departure as a loss when I departed to launch my newsletter. If he told me today that he departed because of Jeff Bezos, I would absolutely tell him that I think he used poor judgement. He would accept my opinion because he is a reasonable man. He doesn't have to go around trying to prove himself to the world with boisterous nonsense.

Here's the deal: If Jason has left. Jeff Besos the owner of Wa.Po. decided to not endorse for president because of Media disaster on endorsements. The endorsement Nonsense encouraged Bezos to not endorse. I fully endorse his decision. Jason Samenow who I was a onetime friend with probably left with many others because of Bezo's who was only acting with sanity. I am disappointed with Jason for this partisan decision. If I am wrong, I apologize.

Yes, this could happen. A good example for my area is November - March of 21-22 which averaged -1.0 La Nina. I received 28.50 inches of snow compared to an average annual 24.00 inches.

Its the most wonderful time of the year!!! A time when speculation is high for the coming winter. This year, our glee is low because of a coming La Nina winter......... Last year it was high because of El Nino............ What did that amount to ???? I have researched analogues for the past 70 years and I have to believe that we will have another low snowfall winter............ Do I believe we can simply blame it on La Nina or other Nonsense? No I have also identified a bias toward a dry La Nina winter. At least one other factor as stressed by PSU is the PDO. I have identified 7 analogues back to 1955. The CPC suggests that a Dynamic/Statistical blend for the coming winter will be -.6 to -.7. This is based on my location which receives an average of 24 inches of snow and 15.45 inches of rain from November through March. We begin with 2023 which averaged - 6.3 La Nina, I received 1.5 inches of snow and 14.21 precip. Low snow and Precip.. 2001- 6.33 La Nina, 5.5 inches snow and 10.52 precip. Low snow and precip. 1984 - 6.33 La Nina, 10.0 inches snow and 25.72 precip. Above normal precip. 1975 - 5.6 La Nina, 9.8" snow, 12 .66 precip. Low snow and precip. 1972 - 6.6 La Nina, 4.7" snow,, 9.05 precip. Low snow and Precip. 1965 -5.6 La Nina, 24.5" snow and 14.37 Precip. Mother Nature always found a way to snow during the '60's. The PDO was -.90 in January of 65 1955 - .7, 13.1 " snow and 17.41 Precip. 86% of the time during the past 70 years we have had a low snowfall winter with a - .6 La Nina and 86% of the time we have had a dry winter. My broad blend gives us 10 inches of snowfall during this coming winter..........................