stormy

.18"

The NWS predicted high was 50. Shame on you NWS. I have topped out at 41. .03" rain

Thanks for all this information!. Nothing like true eyewitness accounting!! I live too far east for lake effect upslope. My area is downslope for west or northwest winds. We do well with southern systems or noreaasters, being upslope for those. My first experience with lake effect upslope was late October of 1968. I drove from a partly sunny 53 degrees at Harrisonburg to pouring snow and 26 degrees at the summit of Spruce Knob with 4 - 6 inches acc. and drifting. Many times during the 70's and 80's, when I wanted lake effect, I drove to the state line on Rt. 250 which is the highest elevation of any primary highway in Virginia at 4332 ft.. The old timers at Monterey have told me that legend has snow flurries falling there in July many years ago. People who have never experienced lake effect snow have no idea how much difference can exist 50 or 60 miles northwest of Staunton or Harrisonburg on an invading northwest wind, especially late fall and early winter when the waters of Erie or Michigan are still warm. Truly, another world.

Usually Snowshoe being 1300 ft. higher than Davis is a favored spot. Quinwood 20 miles west/southwest and 2000 ft. lower than Snowshoe's 6 inches reported 9 inches. Weird. Upslope didn't work exactly right this time around.

I find it quite unusual for Davis to report 13 inches of snow when Snowshoe reports only 6 inches since Monday.

Last years enso signal was very similar to what is forecast this winter at -.6 My previous 7 year average snowfall was 15 inches last year. I broke it last winter with 18 inches. You take what you get, smile and be happy. I totally agree with you.

Are You really serious????

This morning at 300 hrs. the GFS gives Waynesboro a total of 2.0" around the 12th. The ECMWF gives Waynesboro a total of .04" at 300 hrs.. During the next several days, one will cave.

I have been looking forward to our next potential precip. maker. Noticed something interesting. The GFS, GEM and ECM AI ENS say Nov. 9 - 11. In disagreement the ECM deterministic and ECM AI say we stay mostly dry. Will be interesting.

1.65" total

I have been squirrel hunting for decades. Introduced by my dad. They are a gourmets delight prepared properly. Population varies from year to year based largely on last years hard mast crop. More mast last year, more squirrels this year.

Hello out west! I was out there squirrel hunting yesterday morning. No luck as squirrels are few and far between this year. This is east/central Augusta on the north side of Waynesboro. Late yesterday afternoon. My latest 4 model blend of 12z today is 1.34". Tonight should feature the main event.

My 5 model blend dropped overnight from 1.96" to 1.44". NBM dropped from 1.75 to 1.20 as would be expected. My sweetspot for significant rainfall seems to be 6 pm to 6 am. I am running a deficit of 7.14" since August 1 !!

Yes Will, the 18z NBM increased my QP from 1.50" to 1.75" as I expected from 2 hrs. ago. The NBM is easy to predict........................

My 12z 5 model blend for Augusta: GFS 1.96", ECM 1.88", ECM AI 1.29", GEM 2.50", ICON 2.20"............... Blend 1.96" When the NBM incorporates the 12z models, it should increase from 1.50"

My Goodness! What a collapse .........................

The repetitive pattern last month to 6 weeks has been southern systems with HP up north. Again this coming week............... I have commented on this more than once. Usually, patterns last less than 120 days, but usually is not always. If this continues into the winter................... Reasonable logic may need to be trashed...............

24.0 this morning. 12 months ago this morning I had a low of 34. 10 years ago this morning I had a low of 55 with sprinkles.

26.8 this morning....................................

The trend should be our friend in the rainfall dept. next week. Latest 4 model blend gives Augusta 1.50 next week and latest 7 day WPC gives 1.50 - 2.00", though it only counts when in the bucket. Water table in the Valley has dropped 10 ft. since early August.......................................

When cold air aloft is moving in from the west to north. At other times, 3-5 degrees per 1000 ft.. Observations based on frequent visitation to a location 20 miles northwest at 4400 ft. which is about 3000 ft. higher than my 1400 ft. elevation at home. When a warm front is knocking from the southwest it can be warmer at 4400 ft..

My observation here is about 10 degrees per 1000 ft. . Sounds about right for here.

Whats the elevation at your cabin compared to Calvert?

12z EURO gives Augusta .03" next week. 12z EURO AI gives Augusta 1.75" next week.

All of the people predicting a mid October heat-wave 4 - 6 weeks ago were pitifully wrong........