stormy

Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360.

You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.

Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather"

I'm getting it from WeatherBell

The 06z Euro gave Augusta County 1.05" by Sat. at 12z. At 12z it came to its senses with .10". The Euro has degraded to Graf league.

57 years ago this week, 124 people died in Nelson County from the remnants of Camille.

Convergence will be almost non existent but a weak front approaching at peak heating should be enough to encourage at least some convective activity late this afternoon and early tonight. Charleston West Virginia experienced some flooding with 4.08" Sunday. My .71" was the most since July 4!

Nothing is guaranteed just because we are having a Nino. October, November and December of 1965 experienced a strong Nino at +2.0 A severe drought was in progress. Dulles received a total of .46" during November of 65. December of 65 was worse at only .42"! The heavy snows of late Jan. 66 finally brought moisture.

The .47" received today is the most from 1 event since July 21.

This looks nice Will !! I guess I can look forward to 1.40" rain the next 40 hrs. That's more than the total for the first half of August!!

An increasingly active subtropical jet. The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16. In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct. 97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.

Historically, be patient until September/October.

That hail was wicked in parts of Charlottesville. Sorry about your Jeep!

This is just more of the same. North side of Charlottesville reports 1.74" last hour. Much of the Charlottesville area has received 8 - 12 inches of rain in the past month while Augusta has received 2 inches. That NBM grid from Will shows much of Augusta receiving 1.50" thru Sunday. That ain't gonna happen. I pray that on Sunday I can say that I was wrong. The NBM has predicted 10 of our 2 inches in the past month.

This has about a 1% verification probability, especially southwestern portions

The 2 historically closest analogs for 26-27 are 97 - 98 and 15 - 16 at approx +2.2. They were both wet but snowfall was wild!! 97 - 98 was a western highlands snow delight with nearly 40 inches at Staunton/Blacksburg. Huge disappointment at Winchester and D.C. with less than 1 inch. 15 - 16 found 26 inches at my place, Winchester 32 and D.C. 22. More than +2.0 is highly favored to be wet but correct AO and NAO blocking is important to get cold air into the mix. We just can't know at this time. We should know by March 15.

I felt 3 sprinkles about 9. Nothing since.

Raindrop is an excellent quick reference. I have been using it for probably 6 months. This radar indicated output can sometimes be a little too heavy compared to actual gauge measurement. My radar indicated data is probably different than yours, because my scan is near 13000 ft. I often compare radar vs. gauge measurement.

The U.S. Drought Monitor has been correcting weekly recently, gradually eliminating the Extreme Drought category in Virginia. This mornings update completely removes Extreme Drought from Augusta County. The 9 am version puts most of Augusta County in Severe Drought, with Moderate Drought west of Churchville and near Harriston. This is the first time in 2 months that the Monitor has been close to correct.

I had 35 mph winds and .34" rain in Augusta. Rain at last!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I was afraid of Of the Charlottesville mandate on heavy rainfall this afternoon. It seems to have broken. Southwest of Charlottesville has received over a foot of rain in recent weeks, while 15 miles away suffers serious Drought.

Thanks Bro! I'll report this in my Newsletter. I've had 3.07 since July 1. Last year I had 7. 17" in July.

Charlottesville getting hammered again. 6 - 8 inches of rain in less than a week.

Montiviola about 10 miles southwest of Crozet reports 1.19" since noon. The east of the Blue Ridge daily monsoon continues while west of the B.R. a very serious drought situation gets worse by the day.

Make that 6 inches in Charlottesville the first 6 days of August