stormy

.25" rain from 10:30 - 11:40 The Graf model from 5 am was exactly right with 100% rainfall while NWS was only 30%. At less than 12 hrs. it seems that Graf is more accurate than NWS.

Graf updates every hour. It still says 100% rain for Augusta between 10:30 and noon.

Scottsville received 3.20" yesterday evening! Augusta received 4 sprinkles. Today, NWS says 30% and Graf says 100% for Augusta!! This will be a real test for Graf.

Graf was correct again!!!!!! The NWS promised a 60% likelihood of storms. SPC issued a Severe Watch. Graf said partly cloudy with a 15% chance of any rain............ I have had 3 sprinkles. Graf is proving itself as a very credible source of information. This cannot be denied.

.45" yesterday. The "monsoon" region east of BR. Afton 1.59", 5 miles west Batesville 1.47".

The HRRR shows nothing for Augusta/Rockingham thru 4 pm. It is wrong as convection is firing Staunton to Harrisonburg. The NAM 3k is on the money. Sorry to lose it.

The Graf scored closer to reality than the NWS for Staunton/Waynesboro yesterday evening. Staunton/Waynesboro didn't get a drop. NWS says 60% this pm while Graf says 41%............... With an approaching front tomorrow that will stall over the Central Valley for Saturday, my probs. crawl up from 30% today to 40% for Friday and 50% on Saturday.

You guys are crying over spilled milk. I'm still waiting!! NWS says 70% for me after 5 pm. Graf says 48%. I say 20%.........................

I live about 27 miles northwest of Charlottesville as the crow flies. Therefore, I am conscious of weather occurrences in Charlottesville more than D.C.. Charlottesville has been blasted with a highly unusual repetition of strong to severe storms during the past 60 days. This is within a rectangular area that encompasses much of Nelson and Albemarle counties that has repeatedly been hammered with hail, high winds and heavy rain.. The Charlottesville-Albemarle airport about 9 miles north of town has had the wettest August of the past 65 years with 10.13" of rain. This compares to a normal 3.73" for August. This began during July when 5.99" fell at the airport. During August, west of the Blue Ridge has been dry with serious drought. I would enjoy sharing the rain but am very happy to escape the severe storms!!

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.

Would this EML encouragement of strong storms be more likely for the western ridges or eastern lower elevations ?

There is no guarantee that an "EL Nino" will ever "kick in" I have on more than one occasion said that El Nino guarantees nothing. 1965 had a +2.1 Nino. November and December of 1965 were very dry for D.C.. Less than a half inch for each month. There are far too many who think with a strong Nino, we will soon turn wet. That is simply not guaranteed. It is likely, but not guaranteed.

The Thursday/Friday rain chances seem to be evaporating as the front lags to the northwest and energy skips by to the North.. Drought conditions continue for many and El Nino guarantees NOTHING.

46.1 at 7 am

49.5 at 7 am!!!

Augusta County rainfall in storms Sat. eve ranged from 0.00 to 0 .86". I came in with 0.52".

That's called Global Cooling

Our last shot at any rain is 3 - 11 pm as the front approaches. After that, my 66% of normal August rainfall shrinks.

Thanks Chuck! During July in Augusta County, I only received 62% of normal rainfall. During August, I have received 66% of normal thru 8-20.

May was my wettest month. July and August have been dry.

Make that 18,000 ft. flow 290 - 360

Down-sloping has been a problem this summer as, all to often, 18z flow has been 290 too 360.

You are exactly right! West of the BR we have fallen into a God-awful pattern whereby feedback from previously existing conditions, foils the best and brightest of the models. The only hope we have is a +2.9 - 3.0 Nino breaking this pattern between Oct 1 and Dec. 31. Earlier today the Euro said, this will happen. The problem is that the Euro is not smart enough to fathom the feedback atmospherics of a serious Drought. Sorry Ji, "elite" is not perfect.

Without getting technical with a bunch of Nonsense. I'm still in serious Drought. 50 years ago, before anyone heard of Models, my grandfather said, "all signs fail in dry weather"

I'm getting it from WeatherBell