stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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He should move to Cut Bank, Montana. Then, once in a while.......
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East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall. I well understand that fact. Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March. March of 1960 produced 26 inches. March of 1962 dumped 38 inches. March of 1993 produced 19 inches.
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Thanks Cape! This is a reasonable explanation.
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1 pm average 8 - 15 mph
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One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events....................................
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With the primary jumping from Indianapolis to secondary developing in southeastern N.C., deepening and finding a home around Nagshead/Norfolk, GGEM dumps 18" on Augusta County. GEPS comes in with 15 inches. What a trip!! That I give a 1% chance of verifying, unless the EURO spits out 12 inches. Then, that 1% leaps to 5%. If this was Thursday 12z, different ballgame.
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The EURO loves freezing rain as usual. The GEM is nutty as a fruit cake with UL Thermals. The GFS looks reasonable with track, thermals surface and aloft. My 7 model blend has increased from 2.2" at 7 am to 5.5" at 2 pm.
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ZR with the ECMWF really doesn't mean a lot. It forecasted .86" a week ago and I received .05" LOL
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Run to run consistency can be important. I would feel better if the op Euro gave some support but as explained earlier today, tremendous differences exit between AI and physics based models. I would expect a general coming together within a few days. Unusual unpredictability also exists IMO because some rather strong signals suggest that we may be approaching a pattern change after persistent cold since late December.
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Welcome to the board!! Don't lose any sleep over others trying to put you down!. You will learn a lot by reading a lot but you also have the right to post and occasionally make a mistake. Nobody is always perfect.
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Thanks for this coherent explanation! It is appreciated.
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The GFS signaled the trend with the 18z run when QP dropped significantly over Virginia. After 18z, I was expecting 00z to be feast or famine. Famine rules the roost.
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I'm not beating any drum, but I am happy that you agree with what I have posted about more than once. I don't trust the ensemble at all. The deterministic side may be ok.
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You are exactly right........... A week to go, we could have a cat 5 Hurricane. I have been following models for 20 years and never can I remember 6 hours like today. Are the models changing or are the pattern repetitions changing???
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You know, after today, I'm inclined to agree with you! I cannot ever remember a 6 hr. period like today. But, even more astounding is the AI coming back to snow. Something crazy going on! Maybe JI has a handle on it?
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The model world has succumbed into KAOS during the past 6 hrs..................... Any semblance of run to run consistency has disappeared.
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EURO is dry as a gourd. This is no improvement over the GFS.
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The AI gives birth last Tuesday, loses interest and cancels. Now, brings it back today and gives Augusta, 4 inches of snow on the 15th. I want to see the old time EURO in a few minutes.
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A Richter Scale 9 quake with the GEM and GFS!!!!!!! Hopefully, the EURO will restore some sanity.
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Its all about TRACK this morning. IMO, the EURO erodes the wedge too quickly on the 14th.
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18z GFS Way North
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Is it possible that the pattern is beginning to feel the warming ENSO?
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The model which started this train has lost interest. Since the 12z ensembles are in, my 7 model blend has dropped to 5.15".
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My 3 model blend from the big 3 is 9 inches out here in Augusta. 12 from the Euro and GEM make up for the 3 from the stingy GFS. QP is 1.90" Euro, 1.35" GEM and .35" GFS Kuchera no good this time around.
