stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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NAO of -2.0
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Make that an NAO of 2.0.
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The desired pattern occured in 2009 - 2010 when we had an AO at -2.0 and a - AO of 3.50. Will this ever happen again with an El Nino of +1.5???
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I agree 100%!! IMO, the AO is more important than the NAO. I have identified 9 analog winters since 1950 to 26/27. For Augusta, 78% of strong El Nino winters have above average snowfall. The below average snowfall similar Enso winters were #1 - 72/73 at +2.0 C. with an average +1.2 AO and -.50 NAO and 91/92 at +2.3 with an average +1.10 AO and -.50 NAO. Slightly negative NAO and moderately positive AO is bad news for snow.
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30.0 at 7. The first low above the 20's since a week ago today. Back down in the 20's tonight.
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28.8 at 7. That's 5 consecutive freezes.
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The 1960'S was a "wild and woolly" decade !!! 3 Christmas Day snowstorms. 1962 6 inches, 1966 6", 1969 12" It hasn't happened since.
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You never know about the holidays! 60 years ago in 1966, Augusta had a high of 31 and low of 18 with 6 inches of snow. 61 years ago in 1965, we had a high of 62 and low of 46.
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I am slightly warming from previous mornings. 29.9 at 7 am. 4 consecutive freezes.
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27.2 at 7 . the coup de grace to all frost sensitive plant life.
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Frost and 29.0 at 7:30
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Latest guidance keeps us very dry thru the remainder of October. Freeze tonight for many western locations !!!
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2.55". The best rain in a long long time. From mid-day Friday, the physics GFS was the most accurate at 2.46". The ECMWF physics was way low at 1.35". The GEM physics predicted 1.50" at mid day Friday.
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The satellite imagery in motion sends a message. Isaias is coming our way. Many details remain but the general movement looks good.
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My 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.56" to 1.76". At the same time the NBM decreased from 1.02" to .82"! That NBM is a real party pooper considering how badly we need rain!!
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.84" today. A perfect introduction to an El Nino cold weather season. Northern area's were slighted, but this often occurs with El Nino's.
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This WPC map updates every time a WPC revision is released. Yesterday afternoon the WPC predicted 1.00" for Augusta, now drops to .50". A 5 model blend drops from .91" yesterday to .73" this morning. The physics GFS predicts 1.02" while AI GFS predicts .50". AI is notorious for being light on cumulative multi day totals. It all depends on where the front stalls, will it be Danville or Columbia S.C.. ??
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My 5 model blend for Augusta rainfall from midnight Friday thru 10 pm Sunday is .91"...... This compares to .24" at 8 am Wednesday. The AI models are similar to the physics models at 2 pm. The WPC is in line with the 5 model blend.
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The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88". As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00" Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.
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The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.
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The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.
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The WPC is tossing the physics models and buying ECM AI and GFS AI. This will be very interesting!!
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37 degrees at 7 am. .56" total rain last 5 days.
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I've struggled up to .07" total for the event.
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The Drought Continues unabated......................................... 14 sprinkles overnight.
