stormy
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Everything posted by stormy
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My 5 model blend for Augusta rainfall from midnight Friday thru 10 pm Sunday is .91"...... This compares to .24" at 8 am Wednesday. The AI models are similar to the physics models at 2 pm. The WPC is in line with the 5 model blend.
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The AI models have shifted north since yesterday afternoon . For Augusta, 3 pm Wednesday was .30". At 6 am today is .88". As a result, the WPC has shifted from .35" to 1.00" Its easy to see that the WPC is biased toward AI.
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The Graf predicts nearly an inch of rain over the weekend.
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The 18z NAM shifts north with rainfall.
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The WPC is tossing the physics models and buying ECM AI and GFS AI. This will be very interesting!!
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37 degrees at 7 am. .56" total rain last 5 days.
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I've struggled up to .07" total for the event.
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The Drought Continues unabated......................................... 14 sprinkles overnight.
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Congratulations Winchester!!!!!! I'm still DRY.
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My Augusta 5 model blend for today thru Thursday has increased from 1.49 yesterday to 1.81" this morning. The latest GFS at only 1.00" believes development is too far off shore. Subsidence may be a stretch but it amounts to the same thing.
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The 5 model blend for Augusta County has increased from 1.65" yesterday to 1.72" this morning.
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The 5 model blend for Augusta from Monday - Wednesday has dropped from 2.11" to 1.65" since yesterday.
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A 5 model blend now puts my rainfall at 2.11" for Monday - Wednesday. Just what the doctor orders. Hopefully, this will be the beginning of 6 months worth of moderate to heavy rainfall. Augusta has a 10 - 12" deficit to recover since August 2025.
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.70" 2 - 4............. I am starting to believe that the strong El Nino is beginning to affect atmospherics.
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This looks nice:
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Many normal live streams in the Valley are dry.
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Exactly, that's why I was enthusiastic late Saturday afternoon.
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I would have felt like a visitation from heaven had occurred if that much had accumulated in my gauge!
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For many portions of Virginia, the drought insists on persisting. Augusta County was dry slotted again, giving me .08". Sutton W.Va. was radar indicated to receive 5.41". Clifton Forge 2.13", Gordonsville 2.01", Lake Monticello 1.06", Scottsville .81". This looks real good!!!!
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I like that south to north trajectory that has set up this afternoon in advance of the trough. For my Valley area, this is more conducive to significant rain.
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Many possibilities during the last half of September. Will the Atlantic Tropics finally become involved??
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CPC still says wet 6-10 day and 3-4 week, 8-14 day...... Let me think for a while.
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Historically, strong El Nino's are inclined to turn wet during the fall and they don't always telegraph the turn. If this fall indeed turns wet, late September can certainly be a turning point. NOAA may or may not signal that turn. If CPC predictions had been correct for the past 6 months, my soil would not be parched now.
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4 inches of rain by Sept. 26 looks wonderful!!
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I was biased by JB and his "El Nino Madness". He makes some very good points with his language and illustrations. Your westerly wind burst may be interesting. Thanks
