stormy

The GFS is a huge impact to the possibility.

.55" rain last 24 hrs. Very close to the 7 model blend from last Thursday.

This is exactly what I have been complaining about for weeks now on the ensemble mean while others have been trying to defend them.

Listen "dude" If I had wanted to "cherry pick" I could have picked 09/10 and 63 inches or 95/96 and 66 inches and compared those to those poor/poor pitiful 50's when it didn't snow according to psu. Gee, We have been lead to believe that it always snowed a lot more before 1970. Gotta leave the 50's out of that equation........................ Listen dude, regarding DCA dropping from 25 to 14 in a hundred years. Did you ever hear of UHI?

95-96 was 66 96-97 was 21.5

All this talk about 1970 and snow or rain because of 2 degrees is quite amusing. 2 degrees cannot be used 50 years later to decide rain or snow. That is a fool-hearty venture. Many other parameters are involved. 50 years ago some winters produced a lot of snow, others did not. It will be that way 50 years into the future. Much of this winter has been plenty cold for snow but we have been locked into a long-term serious drought which has almost certainly been a factor. In 1956, Staunton received 8.6 inches of snow. The average annual for the past 40 years has been 24 inches. I did not cherry pick 1956. 1952 only received 6.2" of snow. In 1976, Staunton received 15.3 inches. In 1996 Staunton received 21.5" In 2016 Staunton received 24.5" Lets relax, be positive and look forward to 2-21 thru 2-23.

Be careful with "fools gold". I got into hot water last week with that term!!!! Consistency counts for something. This is the second run for AI liking next Sunday/Monday.

You are hilarious!! Do you need help?? I am very concerned about your mental stability. I'm guessing the temperature was below 50 at 9 pm. Below 33 at 2 am And below 32 at 5 am.

On Oct. 9, 1979 in Staunton it was 70 degrees. From 2 am that night until noon on the 10th, it snowed 9 inches.

15 degrees early this morning.

Chuck: The CPC agrees with you. The PDO is a significant contributing issue to the pattern. They issued the latest 3 - 4 week outlook yesterday for Feb. 28 - Mar. 13. This predicts warmer than normal and drier than normal for eastern portions of our region with normal precip. for western portions.

14 degrees and calm this morning.

I hope your right!!! If the long-term pattern persists into the spring, the lawn mowers can be retired, water use restrictions will be common and many folks will suffer a loss of water in private wells. The water table has dropped 22 ft. since June in Augusta County.

Hello again my friend: I suggest that the NWS idea of limited CAD was "wrong' : This would create support for the AI solution. The EURO AI deterministic is fine. But the EURO AIFS ensemble is not ready for Primetime. Maybe next winter, but not this year.

This model is not ready for Primetime. Next winter it probably will be because of how quickly AI is advancing. Any person who gives great credence to this model at this time has not studied its support.

This is very fluid situation with many players. NWS confident solution at 6 pm may be completely different at 6 am as new solutions are available. I hope that you can understand that.

For Sunday/Monday, availability of cold air will be crucial. Damming is establishing as I write from HP over the northern lakes and LP toward 50/50. NWS believes CAD will be limited. I am not convinced of that......................... I am currently leaning toward a colder solution.

This is fools gold

The overnight trend appears colder for Sun./Mon. but this is likely an elevation event which encourages 1-3 inches above 1000 ft. Thermals, surface and aloft are very marginal.

The EURO weeklies are playing catch-up with the GEFS ext.

He should move to Cut Bank, Montana. Then, once in a while.......

East of the mountains can be another world regarding snowfall. I well understand that fact. Here in the Valley, some of our greatest snowstorms have been in March. March of 1960 produced 26 inches. March of 1962 dumped 38 inches. March of 1993 produced 19 inches.

Thanks Cape! This is a reasonable explanation.

1 pm average 8 - 15 mph

One thought to all this hulabaloo. The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal. Pattern change creates model kaos. Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD. The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending................. March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events....................................