stormy

Can the energy over Indiana phase with se energy????? The big question and placement of the coastal...... This will be an historical event, for many reasons.

IMO you're on the right track. The final solution of course will be very interesting but you make some undeniable observations that will be true unless there is a total collapse of the threat.

The GFS is 2 degrees colder than 06z because of intensity. But, the slp placement is too erratic. This is not a long-term option.

I appreciate your wisdom.

We all know that slp placement will determine the final solution. GFS is Hatteras to Ocean City hugging the coast. The EURO and CANADIAN flirt with the coast east of Hatteras then OTS. Way back in the formative equation. The Pacific is hostile. This places the western ridge a little too far east. Instead of an axis at 105 - 110, that axis needs to be back at 115 - 120 which would encourage a coastal solution. Is it too late for a shift? Time is running out......

Just settle down. People have been asking who don't really care about You.

My 7 model blend has increased from 2 inches at 7 am to 4 inches at 5:30 for Augusta County.

Look at the Euro at 2100 Sunday. 100 east of Hatteras, then OTS. Look at the GGEM, Newborn to Norfolk while plastering west of 95. It doesn't often fail as I suggested earlier today. This is NOT the final solution but it is decent of the 12z Canadian.

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days. Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today. One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore?? Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked. Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there. The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk. South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes) Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

You could be exactly right! As you say, "we shall see"

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm. It's still looking. This is very early at nearly 5 days out. It might still find it.

To be exact, March 10, 1958. 12.5 inches at Staunton.

Though I have not looked at it, your description is similar to the 6z GFS.

yeah, the 6z EURO is the lightest of the bunch, strings everything out too much over 2 days. Hopefully it will consolidate with 12z.

I'm sorry if I caused anyone any great consternation with my stark realism. No malice was intended. Cheer Up! Most of the models seem invested for Sunday. But, its probably not wise to participate in any tail gate parties until Saturday.

yeah! First impressions are not always lasting impressions. It was suppressed at 114 but the cold press lagged allowing too much energy to scoot up the wov This morning at 06z that primary over at Charleston need to be down at Charlotte. The AI deterministic really slams us as well as the GEM. They must have tweaked the AI Ensemble. Finally, the poor old timey EURO really can't find the storm.

You are also not a center of the forum. You are only an intruder who has no credibility. I'm sorry, but you are fake.

GFS coming in a little suppressed at 18z but still a winner

That is wonderful! Gods creatures need a break

You will be OK. Please listen to me. Model cooking is hallucinogenic Nonsense.............................. I have You covered........................

The GFS is a huge impact to the possibility.

.55" rain last 24 hrs. Very close to the 7 model blend from last Thursday.

This is exactly what I have been complaining about for weeks now on the ensemble mean while others have been trying to defend them.

Listen "dude" If I had wanted to "cherry pick" I could have picked 09/10 and 63 inches or 95/96 and 66 inches and compared those to those poor/poor pitiful 50's when it didn't snow according to psu. Gee, We have been lead to believe that it always snowed a lot more before 1970. Gotta leave the 50's out of that equation........................ Listen dude, regarding DCA dropping from 25 to 14 in a hundred years. Did you ever hear of UHI?

95-96 was 66 96-97 was 21.5