stormy

Exactly, that's why I was enthusiastic late Saturday afternoon.

I would have felt like a visitation from heaven had occurred if that much had accumulated in my gauge!

For many portions of Virginia, the drought insists on persisting. Augusta County was dry slotted again, giving me .08". Sutton W.Va. was radar indicated to receive 5.41". Clifton Forge 2.13", Gordonsville 2.01", Lake Monticello 1.06", Scottsville .81". This looks real good!!!!

I like that south to north trajectory that has set up this afternoon in advance of the trough. For my Valley area, this is more conducive to significant rain.

Many possibilities during the last half of September. Will the Atlantic Tropics finally become involved??

CPC still says wet 6-10 day and 3-4 week, 8-14 day...... Let me think for a while.

Historically, strong El Nino's are inclined to turn wet during the fall and they don't always telegraph the turn. If this fall indeed turns wet, late September can certainly be a turning point. NOAA may or may not signal that turn. If CPC predictions had been correct for the past 6 months, my soil would not be parched now.

4 inches of rain by Sept. 26 looks wonderful!!

I was biased by JB and his "El Nino Madness". He makes some very good points with his language and illustrations. Your westerly wind burst may be interesting. Thanks

Nino is dying . 65-66 is becoming more likely

The Weather Underground and TWC can't agree on the position of the front. Is it over Erie or Morgantown??? This is important for the next 48 hrs. Absolutely amazing for what is supposed to be high tech in September of 2026.

More background information for you: the Global High Resolution Atmospheric Forecast System runs on high performance supercomputers and utilizes advanced physics models, machine learning and AI Algorithms to ingest data automatically. The Weather Company explicitly relies on human oversight.. A team of over 100 expert meteorologists continuously reviews, validates and refines the model's outputs.

After you get the 10 day forecast for your town, you can select your current day for detailed hourly forecasts.

The raw generated data is not publicly available. The easiest way is thru the TWC app for your town or city. It is rapid update hourly and sometimes is off the wall but it nailed the details Friday and Saturday.

The GRAF was 3 for 3 Friday 5 pm - Saturday 10 pm. .89" rainfall from 2 events detailed by Graf 6 hrs. pre-event while the mets. at NWS played a dismal second fiddle. The first event on Friday pm was hilarious as the SPC had a Watch posted and the NWS gave a 60% prob. of storms. Graf said, "sorry folks, it ain't gonna happen" It did not happen. I do not expect 3 for 3 to continue but that was a very impressive 30 hr. period for Graf.

.25" rain from 10:30 - 11:40 The Graf model from 5 am was exactly right with 100% rainfall while NWS was only 30%. At less than 12 hrs. it seems that Graf is more accurate than NWS.

Graf updates every hour. It still says 100% rain for Augusta between 10:30 and noon.

Scottsville received 3.20" yesterday evening! Augusta received 4 sprinkles. Today, NWS says 30% and Graf says 100% for Augusta!! This will be a real test for Graf.

Graf was correct again!!!!!! The NWS promised a 60% likelihood of storms. SPC issued a Severe Watch. Graf said partly cloudy with a 15% chance of any rain............ I have had 3 sprinkles. Graf is proving itself as a very credible source of information. This cannot be denied.

.45" yesterday. The "monsoon" region east of BR. Afton 1.59", 5 miles west Batesville 1.47".

The HRRR shows nothing for Augusta/Rockingham thru 4 pm. It is wrong as convection is firing Staunton to Harrisonburg. The NAM 3k is on the money. Sorry to lose it.

The Graf scored closer to reality than the NWS for Staunton/Waynesboro yesterday evening. Staunton/Waynesboro didn't get a drop. NWS says 60% this pm while Graf says 41%............... With an approaching front tomorrow that will stall over the Central Valley for Saturday, my probs. crawl up from 30% today to 40% for Friday and 50% on Saturday.

You guys are crying over spilled milk. I'm still waiting!! NWS says 70% for me after 5 pm. Graf says 48%. I say 20%.........................

I live about 27 miles northwest of Charlottesville as the crow flies. Therefore, I am conscious of weather occurrences in Charlottesville more than D.C.. Charlottesville has been blasted with a highly unusual repetition of strong to severe storms during the past 60 days. This is within a rectangular area that encompasses much of Nelson and Albemarle counties that has repeatedly been hammered with hail, high winds and heavy rain.. The Charlottesville-Albemarle airport about 9 miles north of town has had the wettest August of the past 65 years with 10.13" of rain. This compares to a normal 3.73" for August. This began during July when 5.99" fell at the airport. During August, west of the Blue Ridge has been dry with serious drought. I would enjoy sharing the rain but am very happy to escape the severe storms!!

Yesterday evening, this northwest perimeter flow developed a strong storm in southwest Augusta. A couple locations received close to 2 inches of rain while a few miles away, little more than sprinkles.