stormy

The EURO continues to harp heavy ZR amounts. For Augusta .86". This is not going to happen. IMO, the 925 temp profiles are too cold. Most of that Euro predicted zr will be sleet.

My 8 model blend has dropped from 9.0" to 7.2" since 7 am.

That is certainly possible but it lost .40" qp over Augusta which is just more of a trend and probably not related to any banding.

I lost 1.8" on the EURO from 06 - 12z

We will probably have virga for a few hrs before we see it. Snowshoe will be different.

Thanks! I appreciate the 11:39 correction. My bad!!! I hope this is right but it disagrees with half of the models. Especially the vaunted Euro.

You're right on man!!

This is outdated by at least 8 hours.

I agree with you 100%. My reasoning is that 925 thermals are too cold until most precip. exits.

A clean Kuchera will not apply. Too much warming aloft.

spray the intake chut inside and augers good with silicone, helps.

I agree about freezing rain. The EURO seems to have a problem with depicting sleet. The latest indicates .75 freezing rain for me and only .2" of sleet when the 925 thermals should produce sleet. The others are minimal with freezing rain but the EURO is bonkers. Any thoughts?

18z GFS is colder. Less sleet. Higher Kuchera.

Most people can't handle too much information too fast. We suffer from too much too fast and we scream when we're disappointed. I remember a time very well when the internet did not exist. Most folks were happier back in those days.

If the Euro is right. Tens of thousands of Virginians will be suffering by Sunday or Monday because of no power and no heat............................

The ECM AI ens gives Augusta 16 inches. It warms less aloft than the deterministic ECM and AI.

Thank you for your usual wisdom!!

The huge question this morning is, how much warming aloft on Sunday. The EURO is off the wall with possibilities for Augusta County. The Euro deterministic gives me 9.8" of snow, .89" of freezing rain and 1.5" of sleet. I simply don't believe that as it has no support with upper level thermals from the EPS, AI or AI ens. The AI ens. gives me 15.7" of snow with 850 temperatures at least 5 degrees colder... .89" freezing rain is hugely inflated over all other models that indicate zr amounts. 12z will be interesting.

ICON north at 18z. RRFS north at 18z

EPS gives me 11 inches and .39" freezing rain. I find that hard to believe since the warmest that I get at 850 is 28. 700 is not available. The ECM AI ens. gives me 14 inches of snow. ZR not available on AI.

12z GEM went south. My sleet dropped from 3.0" to 1.5". Kuchera increased from 13.6 to 15.7. 850 and 700 a wash with 00z.

The chance for some ice mixed with the snow seems to be increasing south of Winchester. The latest Canadian gives me 3 inches of sleet on top of 12 inches of snow on Sunday. The 850 temp. is well below freezing, but I creep up to 0c for about 3 or 4 hours at 700. My 10:1 is 12.8" this morning from 8 sources. Kuchera is 19.9. Oh well, sleet will only slow the melting process.

My prediction earlier today that the 12z GFS was only a "blip" nailed it. GFS is back from 1.5" to a foot.

You are a very smart and reasonable person. Those can be preciously rare commodities. Regarding all the rants about the GFS, I gave fair warning of this possibility 2 hours ago. I believe the 12z run is probably little more than a blip since the GEFS did not follow suit. We will see at 18z.

a balmy 14 early this morning