stormy

Your such a bore with your illogical tripe. 0% chance that an NWS report is accurate??? You just destroyed credibility for your "beating a dead horse" tirades about D.C. snowfall collapse. Can you please define "0% change"

I'm very sorry, but 4500 ft. mts. in northern and western Augusta County do not exist................. You goofed on that.

0000 I don't play the foolish games that your illk are obsessed with. You are illustrating a dismal start to life.. We need to be encouraging a reasonable start to life, not encouraging radical lunacy. Not today, but 10 years into the future, you will understand....................

AS I said earlier today, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the report because I did not make the measurement . You and I both want accurate measurement and reporting. I am with you 100% on that. We seem to have a mentally challenged intruder. Psu ,who is obsessed with global warming and a huge decrease of D.C. snowfall. Psu , I am very sorry to disappoint you, but I totally agree that earlier reported snowfall totals cannot be trusted.

Sunday plastered the Shenandoah Valley with a very unusual snow-event. Wide variations in accumulated snowfall occurred within short distances. Similar conditions occurred in W.Va and Md./ Del. The NAM Nest 700 mb. chart illustrated a sharp trough with extreme lift turbulence over Augusta County Sunday afternoon. I received a strong inch in a heavy band while a friend a few miles away had bare ground. Luray reported a half inch while a friend a few miles away up on Tanners Ridge at 2700 ft. near Big Meadows reported at least 6 inches with high winds. When I was preparing my Newsletter early Monday I looked at local snow totals. Stuarts Draft has 3 reporting stations on the west side within a couple miles apart. One station reported 0, another reported 1 inch while #3 reported 4.5 inches! I reported 2 inches for Stuarts Draft. In question, Wintergreen reported 3 inches at 7:30 am Sunday, 6 inches at 3 pm Sunday and 15 inches at 7:30 am Monday. Is this 100% accurate?? I don't know because I didn't take the measurements. If we deny snowfall reported by the NWS because we disagree , we are hopeless. I am currently working on the last 125 years of snowfall for the Valley. I am relying on Staunton Records, Dale Enterprise Records and 60 years of personal records with occasional cross-references. Many of the people who made those records have been dead for more than 50 years. How did they measure snow? Did they use snowboards? If so, how often did they clean the snowboards? West Virginia also had as you say, 'ridiculous" reports for Sunday. Holly River State Park reported 22.5 inches with a picture of measurement on social media. 10 - 15 miles away, Webster Springs only reported 6 inches. Md/Del. also had "ridiculous" reports with 4 - 20 inches within 10-15 miles of each other at midday Monday. I'm always interested in snowfall reports but I am keenly aware that we don't live in a perfect world regarding measuring/reporting snowfall or any other factors in our lives.

I am simply reporting what the NWS office out of Blacksburg is reporting. If you want to argue, then argue with the NWS at Blacksburg. Some joker wandering around in the mts. near Wintergreen on Sunday means nothing. This is not name calling! This is simply clarifying the record for some reckless challenging of the official NWS record.

This is from NWS Blacksburg. Argue with those people, smartboy. https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=rnk

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=rnk

1 inch in 1 hour yesterday afternoon, mostly still here, because we have only reached a high of 33 today with cloudy skies. Wintergreen, 15 miles southeast at 3000 ft. reported 15 inches at 8 am.

On the NAM 3k at 700 mb this has the appearance of the Norlan Trough. Farther west than progged.

Heavy snow since 2 pm. Nearly an inch...... Road and paved driveway covered. Temp dropped from 35 to 32.

First flakes at 8:15 at 34.6. 115 miles wsw of D.C..

35.0 with light rain at 1325 ft. Ground white and snow falling at 1500 ft. on Afton. Mt..

Can the energy over Indiana phase with se energy????? The big question and placement of the coastal...... This will be an historical event, for many reasons.

IMO you're on the right track. The final solution of course will be very interesting but you make some undeniable observations that will be true unless there is a total collapse of the threat.

The GFS is 2 degrees colder than 06z because of intensity. But, the slp placement is too erratic. This is not a long-term option.

I appreciate your wisdom.

We all know that slp placement will determine the final solution. GFS is Hatteras to Ocean City hugging the coast. The EURO and CANADIAN flirt with the coast east of Hatteras then OTS. Way back in the formative equation. The Pacific is hostile. This places the western ridge a little too far east. Instead of an axis at 105 - 110, that axis needs to be back at 115 - 120 which would encourage a coastal solution. Is it too late for a shift? Time is running out......

Just settle down. People have been asking who don't really care about You.

My 7 model blend has increased from 2 inches at 7 am to 4 inches at 5:30 for Augusta County.

Look at the Euro at 2100 Sunday. 100 east of Hatteras, then OTS. Look at the GGEM, Newborn to Norfolk while plastering west of 95. It doesn't often fail as I suggested earlier today. This is NOT the final solution but it is decent of the 12z Canadian.

The best thing I can say this morning is this threat is still 4 days away. Anything can happen in 4 days. Yesterday morning I said don't plan tailgate parties until Saturday. That applies again today. One big question to me has always been. Will the main action be tucked into the coast or too far offshore?? Yesterday, the Euro couldn't find the storm because it was half way to Bermuda before it really cranked. Things are a little better this morning but the GEFS is way out there. The benchmark for a big hit west of 95 is usually an east longitudinal alignment with Norfolk. South or even southwest is a different ballgame. Eastern folks can do somewhat better a little offshore, but this is too much for most. (Unless it changes) Always trying to be positive, I'm happy that my 7 model blend this morning is 2.1 inches.

You could be exactly right! As you say, "we shall see"

At 7 am, I said that the old timey Euro can't find the storm. It's still looking. This is very early at nearly 5 days out. It might still find it.

To be exact, March 10, 1958. 12.5 inches at Staunton.