stormy

I'm talking about a coastal position because of the trough evolving to a negative tilt.

Instead of 150 miles southeast of Hatteras, it should be on the coast at Morehead City.

Thanks Bob!! Your input is always treasured!!!!! I wish you could or would give your synopsis on the weather every day during maybe mid afternoon after digesting the 12z runs. I always learn from your laid back presentation.

Hey Bob! Good to here from you. I always admire your common sense knowledge. You're guidance is well taken. 2 questions It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal. Thoughts? Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8. It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend. Thoughts?

I have records on the models that go back a week. This is not nowcasting day of event. 18z last Tuesday 1-20 found the GFS giving Augusta 3.1". 18z 1-20 Euro gave Augusta 13.2"

You and I can agree to disagree and be friends. The GFS was closer at 12z Saturday for Augusta at 5.9". The Euro was 6.8" I didn't record the NAM but suspect it was closest.

I'm not at all surprised at the 12z Euro. I posted at 7 am that I was not enthusiastic about the EURO. But, the GEM, GEPS, GEFS and GFS all shifted toward snow. I'm honestly not enthralled with the deterministic Euro after it insisted run after run last weekend that I would receive .80 - .90" of freezing rain. I received .01" freezing rain. Total failure. And, the Euro AI ensemble gave me 15.5" to 16.5" of snow for 24 hrs. pre event Friday/Saturday. I received 3 inches of snow and 3 inches of sleet. The Euro family needs improvement to regain credibility with anyone paying close attention.

Just talked to a friend who lives at 2700 ft near Big Meadows. She said she never received a flake of snow but a couple inches of sleet.

RUN to run consistency is important, regardless of which model is being looked at.

On Jan. 30, 1966, the center of the storm was near New Bern, N.C. during late afternoon when I received 3 inches of snow in 1 hour with a surface temperature of +5. I will look forward to future runs but the 00z surface reflection looks too far offshore for heavy snow over Virginia. This 500 mb position would be interesting!

Finished blowing sleet about 15 minutes ago. It was too heavy for the plow. Approaching 6 inches, 3 inches snow. 2.8" sleet. HRRR predicting .50" zr from 2 - 7. Still 10 degrees.

I was outside from 5 - 6 plowing 4 inches of snow mixed with sleet to get ahead of the sleet bomb. Regarding this event. A picture is worth a thousand words

Snow has started at my place in Augusta. 14 degrees.

The EURO continues to harp heavy ZR amounts. For Augusta .86". This is not going to happen. IMO, the 925 temp profiles are too cold. Most of that Euro predicted zr will be sleet.

My 8 model blend has dropped from 9.0" to 7.2" since 7 am.

That is certainly possible but it lost .40" qp over Augusta which is just more of a trend and probably not related to any banding.

I lost 1.8" on the EURO from 06 - 12z

We will probably have virga for a few hrs before we see it. Snowshoe will be different.

Thanks! I appreciate the 11:39 correction. My bad!!! I hope this is right but it disagrees with half of the models. Especially the vaunted Euro.

You're right on man!!

This is outdated by at least 8 hours.

I agree with you 100%. My reasoning is that 925 thermals are too cold until most precip. exits.

A clean Kuchera will not apply. Too much warming aloft.

spray the intake chut inside and augers good with silicone, helps.

I agree about freezing rain. The EURO seems to have a problem with depicting sleet. The latest indicates .75 freezing rain for me and only .2" of sleet when the 925 thermals should produce sleet. The others are minimal with freezing rain but the EURO is bonkers. Any thoughts?