stormy

Does that diatribe help you to feel better? You need something. Probably a study in creative imagination would soothe your senses. Have a good day my friend. We will chat again under better circumstances. 7 degrees and cloudy at 5:30

You are entitled to Your Opinion and I am entitled to mine. My opinion is only about the truth. Since it's "consistently the best model" in your opinion, I'm very happy that it's finally catching on about 6 hrs. late to a threat on Wednesday/Thursday. Small, but it's there. It might die and it might live but thankfully, spring is on the way.

Thanks, I prefer to get along with everyone, but I don't buy into a belief because of popular frenetic clamor as we often witness. The Euro is without doubt the most reliable model, but, it is far from perfect. A highly intelligent person would say, Euro is number 1 but the GFS is a close number 2. AI gives a 60 - 70% verification for both. I constantly read on this site that the GFS should be retired, banned or otherwise thrown in the trash because of how inferior it is. That is simply not true by intelligent persons. As Jerry Lund used to say, the lunatic fringe is out of control.

My Goodness!!!!!! It looks like the GFS deterministic, GEFS and the EURO AI agree with next Wednesday and Thursday................... How can that possibly be???

Chill out before You have a stroke, we're just having a friendly Thursday afternoon chat.

I certainly don't have a "hate boner" I certainly don't have a "hate boner" for the EURO, but I am realistic and I always tell the truth. I remember Monday morning because as soon as I looked at the Euro map that slp was a big red flag waving.

Thank you Steve! I well remember Monday morning at 7 am when the Euro buried me with 18 inches of snow!!!!! I said, no way, it shows the slp too far off-shore. 6 hrs. later the EURO woke up..............

Icon bumped north from Roanoke to Lexington

Good Morning. I just wish to start the day by clearing up some misunderstandings. The first sentence alleges that I "have a weird fixation with the Euro not being good" Nothing could be farther from the truth. I believe that the Euro is an important contributor, but not a king. If a person believes that a model is king, they may be too quick to discount another, especially if it disappoints. Verification scores place the Euro slightly ahead of the GFS. As I said last night, often, a forecast formulation for success would be something close to 60% Euro and 40% GFS. I read the AFD's from Sterling and Blacksburg almost daily and have been for years. The NWS forecasters often refer to both GFS and ECMWF. They sometimes lean toward one and sometimes the other. Back to the here and now, my significant accumulation forecast has evaporated. The only sources still more than an inch are the EPS at 1.4" and the GEFS at 1.9"................. That would be a nice dust up to this iceberg that I am locked into.

Yes, I know it has the highest verification scores. But, I don't consider it to be a king. A king rules. The Euro only rules if misinformed people allow it to rule. Last weekend the Euro was wrong about predominant precipitation type. It was wrong about about total qp. It was wrong about total snowfall amount. If we had received Euro predicted rainfall for the last 6 months, we wouldn't be in a severe drought now. These are the important factors to rate a model. It is not a king. Sometimes it is right, sometimes it is wrong. Longtime expert formulation rating for a forecast......... Use 60% ECMWF and 40% GFS...............

That message was the truth. Very simple without getting "socrates" involved.

The King is a figment of your imagination.

The 18z Nam gives me 2 inches compared to .1 at 12z. A step in the right direction!!!!!!!

Yes, I have been following the ECMWF, EPS, ECM AI, GEM and GEPS. If the GFS and GEFS continue dropping precipitously at 18z with no interest from the others, then I agree that You and I are cooked for this one.

I dropped from 12.0" to 7.5" Kuchera with the GFS family from 7 am - 1 pm. This rate of fall needs to slow down for the 18z run.

Important elements may not model coalesce until 12z Friday.

4 this morning with 1 mph breeze. Was 7 with 12mph winds yesterday morning.

At 10:1 it would have been 21 inches for my backyd.

Sorry, I don't have records of the NAM

I melted the snow and sleet in my large Tru-Check rain gauge. 2.10 inches Saturday/Sunday. The Canadian was the winner at 2.01 inches. The GFS said 1.90" and the EURO said 1.60".

3 hrs. later, I'd say that a very significant change occurred with the 12z GFS

Icon trying to shift west with trough

Its not over. There are 12 more more model runs between now and Friday. I can guarantee that significant changes await. They may be east and they may be west, or northwest.

If the 06 GFS verifies (it won't).... Bob Chill would have snow half way up to his knees, While I settle for 3 or 4 inches............ That's ok, I'm not greedy.

I'm talking about a coastal position because of the trough evolving to a negative tilt.