stormy

.32" so far. Warmer today, 56 at 9:30.

The GEM saves us at 270:

Not always but will often trend in that direction. In January of 66, I received 16 inches of snow in one storm that found heavy snow falling with a 3 pm temperature of +4! Coldest I ever witnessed in the middle of a snowstorm!!

That can happen east of the mountains. 76 - 77 was possibly the coldest winter in 200 years but was often suppression city . The AO was -2.07 in December of 76, -3.76 in January of 77 and -2.01 for February 77 Read all about it: https://www.secretsoftheeasternshore.com/eastern-shore-deep-freeze/ The 1976–77 Winter in the Contiguous United States in Comparison with Past Records in: Monthly Weather Review Volume 106 Issue 10 (1978)

The AO tanking to -3.00 to -4.00 is classic for historical severe patterns. 09 - 10 it tanked to -3.41 with an NAO -.1.10. The PDO was -.50 The AO is almost always the deciding factor. 77-78 found the AO tanking to -3.01 with an NAO of -.12. The PDO was +.50.

The CPC January temperature anomaly along the east coast is being destroyed by the 6 - 24 day.

It has been cold! Forecasted high from NWS was 46. Actual high was 41!!!! This is 5 degrees colder than normal.

Last Sunday at 4:22 pm I said that Jan. 3-8 was a 5 day threat period.............................. To bat 1000, I think that I will stand pat..................

Ain't it sweet

The warning criteria used to be 4" or more.

NYC has first White Christmas in 15 years! Happy Holiday for the Big Apple!! https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/weather/2024/12/24/white-christmas-returns-to-nyc-for-the-first-time-since-2009

The WPC likes the ECM

The 06z GFS is honking at 200 hrs.. As depicted upstairs is OK, surface is very marginal, HP not in a good position, probably an elevation event. I'll take 5 inches and be happy. ECMWF sees the threat but is 48 hrs. faster, greater problems with column thermals. GEM is blind to any threat.

That's called "Global Cooling" Merry Christmas Everyone!!

58 years ago today in Augusta County, December 24, 1966, snowfall was tapering off at 4 pm after dropping 8 inches in 24 hours. The temperature was 22 degrees. The PDO was -0.21, The NAO was +0.72, The AO was -1.40........................... The PDO and NAO are no huge deal but the AO is nearly always deeply negative. This should often apply in today's world.