stormy

OK, we're at 180. Sunday I said 192-216 The big 3 give me 13 inches of snow next Tuesday/Wednesday. I would give a 60% probability of 4 - 8 inches at this point.

His vision is skewed. Danville moved to Charlottesville............ LOL

There has been a lot of hyperventilating during the past 24 hrs. after I asked a simple question, how does this winter feel different? Common sense answers this question, but I had a reason for asking. I hoped to hear an onslaught of shouting about how cold it has been!! Thank you Lord! Some have even suggested that I must be in blind denial of how cold it has been. Wow, what a joke! I have been paying close attention to the weather and climate longer than most in here have been alive. For the past 1 - 4 years I have been trying to say that all of this often repeated nonsense about "the elephant in the room" is just that. PSU tried to convince everyone that we have warmed so much that we would soon have to move north to ever see snow again. He has his opinion and I have mine. Unfortunately, many believed his tirades. Have a good afternoon PSU, we're still friends. The 1950's were benign with snow-drought seasons. In February of 1958, the door opened to a 12 year period of cold and snow. Has that door opened again? I doubt it but this winter has certainly been a big change from recent years. Looking forward to the next 10 - 15 days with the GFS and lesser degree ECMWF. I want to see the big 3 in general agreement of a significant event at 192 - 216 hrs. A lot will depend on where the boundary sets up. Interaction between the NS and SS looks to create an unsettled period at 10 - 20 days but we are still a few days away from any reliability regarding expectations. I well remember a year ago this month when everyone was super hyped because of EPS expectations for late February into March. We all know how that turned out.

They do now. The GEM went from .04 to .66" freezing rain on the north side of D.C

We just experienced a relax of the January cold pattern. I am on record for weeks of a likely cold late February and March. I am not gloriously enthused about this feeling according to the latest GEFS Extended and ECMWF Weeklies.

How does this year feel different???

I am not impressed.

.77" rain total at 12:45. Much needed because the Drought Monitor yesterday put Staunton/Waynesboro back into Moderate Drought. January was a dry month with only .95" liquid the first 30 days.

The latest GEFS Extended believes that Phil will not see his shadow on Feb. 2. EPS says its more likely the sun will be shining.

We will all do well to remember that no human and no model is consistently right 2 - 3 weeks out. Once in a while somebody scores by guessing but that is the luck of the draw. I am on record believing that February will not be anomalously as cold as January and March will probably trend colder. Mother Nature likes to get cold in the eastern states this winter. This CPC thing is only an educated guess on Jan. 25. If I had to nit pick, I would doubt the precipitation maps more than the temperature maps. Unfortunately, we are having another dry winter and I doubt a wet pattern the first 3 weeks of February. If the CPC or models had been consistently correct with precipitation predictions for the past 6 months, Severe Drought would not be on D.C.'s southern doorsteps right now.

There will be ups and downs but that will be an average according to the CPC.

The latest CPC package keeps us firmly above normal temperatures through Feb. 21.

Does the moderate to severe drought enter into your considerations? A small amount of qp can be significant with snow depending on ratios, but I would like to have your opinion.

9.8 this morning.

Nice at 15 degrees and partly cloudy skies this morning. Normal low for this date is 23 degrees.