CurlyHeadBarrett

Satellite imagery and surface observations from NOAA buoy 41040 indicate that the tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles doe not have a well-defined circulation, and that the convection is not well organized. However, these observations also suggest the possibility that a new center may be trying to form to the west or northwest of the advisory position. Until that is confirmed by either daylight satellite imagery or an upcoming Hurricane Hunter flight, the system will remain at potential tropical cyclone status. The initial intensity is a possibly conservative 25 kt. The initial motion is a fast 280/22 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the potential tropical cyclone for the next 24-36 hours, which should more or less maintain the current heading during that period with some decrease in forward speed. After that, a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the eastern United States is forecast to create a large break in the subtropical ridge, with the system turning northwestward and northward into the break. While the model guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario, there is still uncertainty on where the predominant center will eventually form, and this will affect where the system may track with respect to the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Based on the disturbance's currently disorganized state and continued easterly shear, the intensity forecast during the first 36 h has been nudged downward. However the system is still expected to become a tropical storm near or over the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions become more favorable for development after 24-36 hr, and the intensity forecast shows significant strengthening during that time. This portion of the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before or as it reaches the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday. 3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the nearby islands. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required for portions of the northeastern Caribbean later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.4N 52.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/1800Z 15.0N 55.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 59.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.5N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.9N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 19.4N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 21.0N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 25.0N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 29.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven ayo who let bambi sneak in

Cone is out

HAPPENING! OUCH Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating this system on Monday. The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given the current organizational state of the convection and low-level wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids beyond a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

OUCH Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 11 2024 NHC has been monitoring the a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic during the past several days. Satellite images and earlier ASCAT data indicate that the low has a broad circulation, but there is no evidence of a well-defined center yet. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, but visible satellite imagery suggests that dry air is entraining into the circulation. However, since the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm in the next day or so, and there is a risk of tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the Leeward Islands during that time, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating this system on Monday. The estimated motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is 285/18-kt. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement on a fast west-northwestward motion through the next 36-48 h. This motion should bring the system near or over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday. Thereafter, a deep-layer trough moving off the U.S. East Coast should approach this system, inducing a turn to the northwest by Wednesday and to the north thereafter. This should bring the system in the general vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Tuesday night, then emerging into the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico on Wednesday. The NHC track forecast is based on a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Users should keep in mind that the track forecasts for potential tropical cyclones are inherently more uncertain than normal since the system lacks a well–defined center. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is currently located in an environment of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Over the next day or two, the wind shear is forecast to decrease some while the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable environment. Given the current organizational state of the convection and low-level wind structure, the system likely needs at least one more day before it can organize into a tropical cyclone. Around the time the system reaches the Leeward Islands, it will be moving into an increasingly conducive environment for strengthening. Therefore, once the system is able to develop an inner core it should have an opportunity to strengthen at a faster rate. The favorable environment will likely continue in the 3 to 5-day time frame, and this system is forecast to be a strengthening hurricane when it is moving northward over the western Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly below the intensity consensus in the short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids beyond a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday for portions of the area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in portions of the northern Leeward Islands Tuesday and Wednesday, and into Puerto Rico Wednesday through Thursday. 3. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday, and interests in these locations should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 13.6N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 12/0600Z 14.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 24H 12/1800Z 15.2N 55.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 36H 13/0600Z 15.9N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H 13/1800Z 17.0N 62.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 18.3N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.8N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 23.9N 67.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 27.7N 66.3W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Aug 2024 20:14 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Aug 2024 20:14 UTC NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

you think it'll be this one?

Hmmmm, would this be possible?

I wonder if ernesto would use the hot water to the north to his advantage

does it seem to be a humberto-tier/fabian-tier threat or is it portrayed as passing by safely?

From a spicy Latino

Hola amigo!

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Leeward Islands. Interests on these islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area as soon as later today. The system could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Sheeeeeit

Over for new bengaluru Fiona redux anyone?

Fabian/dumberto tier? Sheeeeeit I hope that doesn’t happen

that uncomfortable west teeter tho

Over for HWFI. It's an outlier so I wouldn't bet on it.

Fair enough, I'll stick to ensembles

Over for New Bengaluru

did you so in September 2019 into that storm with the funny name?

Does he successfully climb over the wall the orange man built?

SHEEEEIT 1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

1. Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles (AL98): Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located roughly midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system approaches and then moves near or over the Lesser Antilles, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Then, the system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach portions of the Greater Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.