CurlyHeadBarrett

Can we get a Nunavut landfall?

Fiona reincarnate?

Hmm.

HWRF and GFS predicting a donut structure, delicious!

HWRF and GFS predicting a donut structure, delicious!

ACK!

06z models are quite bullish in terms of strength. ICON: 939 mb at 108 hrs, probably a high-end cat 4. HWRF: 953 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 105 kt, a strong cat 3. HMON: 950 mb at 87 hrs with peak winds of 117 kt, a cat 4. HAFS-A: 957 mb at 114 hrs but with unusually low winds of 'only' 85 kt, cat 2. HAFS-B: 956 mb at 123 hrs with peak winds of 93 kt, a high-end cat 2. These models together would blend to a cat 3 hurricane (around 951 mb / 105 kt assuming ICON's 939 mb would result in ~130 kt).

06z models are quite bullish in terms of strength. ICON: 939 mb at 108 hrs, probably a high-end cat 4. HWRF: 953 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 105 kt, a strong cat 3. HMON: 950 mb at 87 hrs with peak winds of 117 kt, a cat 4. HAFS-A: 957 mb at 114 hrs but with unusually low winds of 'only' 85 kt, cat 2. HAFS-B: 956 mb at 123 hrs with peak winds of 93 kt, a high-end cat 2. These models together would blend to a cat 3 hurricane (around 951 mb / 105 kt assuming ICON's 939 mb would result in ~130 kt).

DNRD Version: Tropical Storm Ernesto is slowly getting stronger as it moves toward the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, where it's expected to bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rain today and tomorrow. The storm is currently at 40 mph winds but is expected to strengthen into a hurricane within the next two days. Key points: Expect tropical storm conditions in the Leeward Islands today, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by tonight. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding and mudslides in these areas. It's too early to know the impact on Bermuda later this week, but it's worth keeping an eye on. Forecast: Ernesto will likely reach hurricane strength in 36-48 hours, with winds potentially reaching 110 mph by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Tue Aug 13 2024 Satellite imagery and French radar data from Guadeloupe indicate that convection has become more concentrated near the center of Ernesto during the past several hours, and there is increased evidence of cyclonic rotation in the radar imagery. However, this has not yet resulted in significant intensification, with surface obs from the Leeward Islands showing a large area of pressures near 1007-1009 mb and no evidence of any tight wind center. Based on this and the latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/17, a little slower than before. Ernesto should turn west-northwestward with an additional decrease in forward speed during the next 12 h or so as it approaches a developing break in the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the Leeward Islands today and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Wednesday. After that, the flow between the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough moving eastward from the United States should cause the cyclone to turn northward and northeastward. By the end of the forecast period, this trough is expected to move eastward away from Ernesto, with a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passing north of the storm. This development should cause another decrease in forward speed during the 96-120 h period. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models, and it is also similar to the previous forecast track. Ernesto is forecast to be in an environment of light to moderate shear and over warm sea surface temperatures through the forecast period, and this combination should allow it to strengthen. Intensification is likely to be slow during the first 12-24 h primarily due to the current lack of organization. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is expected, with Ernesto forecast to reach hurricane strength in 36-48 h. The intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance, and it lies between the intensity consensus and the upper edge of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Leeward Islands today and to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for this entire area. 2. Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward Islands through today, and over the Virgin Islands into Puerto Rico by later today through Wednesday. 3. It is too soon to know what impacts Ernesto could bring to Bermuda late this week, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.2N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.7N 65.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.7N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 23.0N 68.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 25.1N 68.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 27.2N 67.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 65.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$

he went from a 3 psl abomination to a nice looking storm, mirin the ascension.

ascended in a few hours from a 3 psl abomination to good looking. Looks primed to take off any moment

ernesto needs some pats before I head off to sleep then once he slows down I agree he could take off

pat pat

>ernesto >gonzalo I see what you did there

what would this mean?

How quickly or slowly might this spin up?

Tales from mumbai

That downcasting though, dnrd

I'm curlyheadbarrett

OK mom

bhais

AYO WTF IT GOT NAMED ON THIS MAP