CurlyHeadBarrett

All 18z hurricane models now show peak intensity on Sunday, well after passing Bermuda. Peak is in the range 104kt to 120kt

I respectfully disagree with the assessment from that other user I quoted that Ernesto won’t develop into a major hurricane. They're coping very very hard. Even though Ernesto started as a broad, less organized system, I think we're seeing the potential for rapid intensification (RI) if the core starts to consolidate and the pressure begins to drop significantly. The broad circulation might have started with a mean around 1008 hPa, but that doesn’t mean we can’t see a sharp gradient form quickly if conditions favor it, as you mentioned. In similar past cases, storms have surprised forecasters by undergoing rapid strengthening once the core became better defined, even from a less organized state. So, while I understand the cautious approach, I’m still leaning towards a major outcome if Ernesto can tighten up its core and take advantage of the favorable conditions overnight. Let’s see how this plays out—either way, it’s going to be interesting to track!

?

people say the chances of this one becoming a major are dwindling.

the point is that this year was meant to be the "season of a century" I give up

can't see anything

is the basin so fucking unfavorable or what

WTF is going on man Is the basin just fucking unfavorable or what

Downcasters SMH "Intensity guidance is suggesting the chances for a major are decreasing. 0z cycle had the majority in the Cat 3 range with a few nearing Cat 4. 6z and 12z cycles have steadily decreased. If the 18z cycle looks similar I'd imagine the NHC will lower the forecasted peak a bit. Hurricane models still deepen it quite a bit but since the system is so broad I would think a low pressure (perhaps in the 950s or even 940s) may still not be enough to bring winds up to 100kts, especially if it develops a large core like the HWRF is suggesting. I'm thinking this peaks around 90-100kts with pressure in the 950s. Maybe something similar to Earl 2022."

12z ICON would be a worst-case scenario for Bermuda. A 943 mb cat 4 hurricane slowing down on approach and impacting the island for about 20 hours without any significant weakening.

I like making analogs I hope Ernesto doesn't pull a Fabian

How did humberto size up to fabian?

Humberto Gonzalo Ernesto Joaquin Notice a pattern?

How did they fare in Humberto and Gonzalo (Ernesto's brothers)?

Fabian/Gonzalo reincarnate?

Thoughts for my bhais in Brampton, Mississauga, Hamilton and Markham In fact, all of the GTA

or maybe a storm that affects Brampton, ON What are the odds?

Tales from Mumbai.

Today's 06z models are still very bullish. No tales from Mumbai loonyland here. ICON: 944 mb at 108 hrs, probably a cat 4. HWRF: 948 mb at 60 hrs with peak winds of 108 kt, a strong cat 3. HMON: 955 mb at 51 hrs with peak winds of 116 kt, a cat 4. HAFS-A: 947 mb at 108 hrs with peak winds of 109 kt, a strong cat 3. Intensification is much more gradual though. HAFS-B: 957 mb at 48 hrs with peak winds of 110 kt, a strong cat 3. These models together would blend to a high-end cat 3 or low-end cat 4 hurricane (around 950 mb / 113 kt assuming ICON's 944 mb would result in ~120 kt).