CurlyHeadBarrett

What did you do at the party was it wild?

Rate Gloria out of 8, with 4 being average

It's francine bhai AKA fran

Precursor to possible Fran? (Fran is a nickname for Francine)

Using this map, and assuming a NEUTRAL state.

So if HASF-A is right we will have our second major of the year. Mirin

Looks like an eye is finally starting to clear out! @n9wiff

AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 230, 110, 130, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 90, 70, 60, 50, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, AL, 05, 2024081600, , BEST, 0, 266N, 683W, 85, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 50, 50, 0, 25, 1011, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

now compare that with humberto

Could this possible pull a humberto and peak in 70+ knots of shear

Is it still an ERC is there is no longer an eyewall? Normally forming these huge eyewalls can be very messy, but the weakness of the inner core may actually play out in its favor.

Pretty large dry slot circulating around Ernesto's core. That feature has stubborn persistence and will most likely delay any period of significant intensification until the stable airmass mixes out. The pressure has dropped some since last night due to persistent convective bursting in Ernesto's core, but the gradient isn't tightening up as long as that dry alot remains and the outer bands are slow to contract. At any rate, this is good news for Bermuda. The upper-level environment is very condusive for a strong hurricane as discussed previously. A steady state to slow strengthening into tonight. If the dry slot does eventually mix out and contraction begins, then perhaps more significant intensification tomorrow per official forecast. thoughts, or too bearish?

That’s what I was saying lol

Yeah that's an extreme example + I remember that 1 hurricane that peaked as a high end 3 in 60 knots of shear on the last day of being tropical in 2019 dnr

Muh shear + Humberto peaked in 60 kts of shear

and the speed of ernesto will slow down around approach to bermuda, dnr

Do you remember Franklin from last year? Bro was expected to be a 3 on the intensity models, hurricane models bombed him out to a 4 Ended up being a high 4 So that's why I don't bother too much on intensity models, they are often conservative

James.

Franklin wasn't expected to be more than a 3 on that plot (peakwise) and ended up peaking at 150mph JFL. Not a molecule

Who? Also On August 28th he peaked at 150 mph DNRD

THIS. I remember tracking I believe Franklin or some other storm where the intensity models were showing 2 at best but the hurricane models were showing a 4 Ended up being a 4. Just fucking lol

Same shit happened with other hurricanes that actually exploded Remember Franklin? JFL

two distinct peaks on most of these runs. It looks like peak #2 has some baroclinic support from the trough. HAFS-B holds onto cat 4 until about 36.5N while Hurricane Ella has a cat 4 best track point above 42N. It would be I believe third place behind Ella and Gladys. Maybe that's reading too deep into one isolated run, who knows

They all also show a slight weakening phase due to shear starting Friday morning, with recovery towards its Cat 3-4 peak starting late Saturday or early Sunday. If we see Ernesto play out like the 18z HAFS-B, would it be one of the northernmost Cat 4s on record, if not the new record holder?