I don't presently have access to compare, but yesterday's 12Z EURO had the ULL over the central GOM, which aided ventilation and built an ULAC right over the TC in the WCARIB. The GFS runs have all had the TUTT/ULL placed much further south and in closer proximity to the TC in WCARIB, which kept the TC under 20+ KTs of shear. Perhaps the new 00Z Euro came to a similar solution, hence a weaker system. Other than monitoring to see if we get a TC out of 95L, the evolution in modeling between the upper level features in the Caribbean is going to be the focus on any potential ceiling for intensity in the forecast. I do think 95L has an excellent shot of TCG and may become a strong TS, even a low-end hurricane, but I am very apprehensive of the major hurricane solutions that we may again see come and go over the next several days that would have any basis in reality. As has been repeated, the Caribbean in July is generally a graveyard for early MDR TCs for good reason. Climatology more often wins out this early in the season despite the above normal SSTs in place along potential track.
I’m regarding those recent mogger runs as tales from the Caribbean graveyard
until a solid td forms I need to see if it’s tales or not
I am doubtful