Based on the various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates, the initial intensity is increased to a
possibly conservative 45 kt.
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical
Atlantic and the eastern Caribbean Sea are abnormally favorable for
strengthening, and the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS
model are showing a significant chance of rapid intensification. The
new intensity forecast continues to call for bERyl to become a
hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands, and it now calls for
a peak intensity of 95 kt in 60-72 h. This peak could be
conservative, as several of the intensity guidance models forecast
Beryl to become a major hurricane.