CurlyHeadBarrett

She is

JFL up to 0/50 aready: Near the Lesser and Greater Antilles: A tropical wave located over the tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing widespread disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Any development of the wave should be slow to occur during the next couple of days while it moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic. Afterwards, conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form while it approaches the Lesser Antilles by early next week. The system is then forecast to move generally west-northwestward and could approach the Greater Antilles by the middle part of next week. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Beven

Severe impacts?

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=Simulated_Satellite&initcycle=determine&initfhour=192&initimdimx=676&initimdimy=750&initrange=34.452554744550:276.487619047584:13.722627737250:298.918095238012&initcx1=216&initcy1=218&initcx2=463&initcy2=492&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=211&initsoundy=213&initloop=False&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=384&initlint=6&initol1=Simulated_Satellite&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=On&inithgwys=On&initunits=On&initlatlon=Off

Thoughts?

Sheeeeeit

Sheeeit, but what intensity are you thinking? Also:

Land including mountan terrain, the shredder which is subject to change

no problem man

Hmmm How strong do you think this might get + any analogs?

Anything stopping or inhibiting development?

What strength are they talking right now and could this become a conus threat?

Utter cagefuel but entertaining nonetheless

First non GOM storm of the year?

Cope more.

GTH Outlook Discussion (Atlantic Focus) Last Updated: 08/06/24 Valid: 08/14/24 - 08/27/24 Key Points: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Influence: The MJO has become more organized, moving from the Maritime Continent to the East Pacific, aided by a strong Kelvin wave. This wave has temporarily increased the chances for tropical storm formation in the East Pacific. Current Atlantic Conditions: Hurricane Debby: Formed in the Gulf of Mexico and hit Florida as a Category-1 hurricane. Now, it's moving along the eastern US, causing heavy rainfall. Tropical Waves and Warm Waters: High sea surface temperatures and active tropical waves are setting the stage for potential storm formation. Weeks 2-3 Forecast (08/14/24 - 08/27/24): High Favorability for Storm Formation: Conditions are very favorable for tropical cyclones (hurricanes) in the Atlantic basin. MJO Impact: The MJO will enhance storm development due to increased upper-level divergence over Africa and the Atlantic. Warm Sea Temperatures: Above-normal sea temperatures will further support storm development. Potential Storm Areas: Caribbean to Gulf of Mexico: A tropical wave might develop into a storm as it moves into the Gulf. Main Development Region (MDR): Increased activity expected with potential formations near the northeast Lesser Antilles or closer to the Bahamas. Late August: Favorable conditions will shift eastward, maintaining high activity across the Atlantic. Forecast Uncertainty: Model Differences: ECMWF and GEFS models differ on where storms might form, leading to some uncertainty. Track Predictions: Exact storm paths are unpredictable at this stage, depending on where they form and other weather influences. Advisory: Stay Updated: People in the eastern US, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean should monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center for official forecasts and track information once systems develop. In summary, the next few weeks are likely to see increased tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. High sea temperatures and favorable atmospheric conditions, influenced by the MJO, will contribute to potential storm formations, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf regions. Stay informed for the latest updates from official sources.

Sheeeeit, look what CPC brought out

Is this it? Sure, let's break this down into simpler terms: Trust in Models: Ed, who likes snow and hurricanes and lives in Texas, usually trusts the European ensemble models (ECENS) for predicting tropical storms because they don't give too many false alarms. Past Performance: Recently, a potential storm referred to as the "10/30 lemon" didn't develop as expected, but the ECENS were better at predicting the formation of Hurricane Beryl compared to other models. Current Observations: The European ensemble models (Euro ensembles) showed more variations (perturbations) in the latest forecast (6Z) compared to an earlier one (0Z). There's almost no model support for the "E Caribbean lemon" (another potential storm), except one model (GEFS) predicts a storm forming in the southern Caribbean that might affect Houston as a tropical storm. False Alarms: The GEFS and GFS models often incorrectly predict storms (false alarms) developing in the southwest Caribbean from weak weather systems moving west through northern South America. They also mistakenly predict tropical cyclones when the monsoon trough extends into the Caribbean. Forecast for Mid-Month: Ed is betting that there will be a tropical cyclone (TC) around mid-month. He believes it won't go out to sea (OTS) and could impact land. He thinks expecting no storms or only one in the second half of August is unlikely because the main development region (MDR) is very warm, and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is nearly neutral, which usually supports storm formation. In simple terms, Ed trusts the European models for hurricane predictions, believes a storm will form around mid-month, and thinks the conditions are right for more storms in the latter half of August

ngl I'm hella confused what you mean here. I guess: Here's a more straightforward explanation: ECENS/EPS: These are terms for a weather prediction system from Europe that uses 50 slightly different models to forecast weather. Each model starts with a slightly different version of the initial weather conditions. Initial Conditions: The starting data for these models is never perfect because of gaps in measurements and estimations between data points. Recent Changes: Initially, these models, along with U.S. and Canadian models, agreed on one forecast. However, something changed, and now most models predict a more southern path for the weather system with less favorable conditions for development. Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (EATL): There's a weather disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that might behave like a recent system in the Caribbean. It might initially show signs of developing into a storm but then lose support as new data comes in. Alternatively, it might continue to develop, similar to how a previous storm, Beryl, formed. GFS Model: The latest U.S. weather model (GFS) shows no development in the eastern Caribbean. Few other models predict any development either, making it very unlikely that a storm will form there. Dry Air: The GFS model suggests that dry air around the eastern Atlantic wave is preventing it from developing into a storm in the Caribbean. If the GFS is correct, this dry air will keep hindering development but might not completely stop it. This gives the system a chance to continue moving without changing direction before possibly impacting land. In summary, the tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic currently has low chances of developing into a storm due to dry air and changing model predictions.