EWR757

Beautiful photos of the ice on the Hudson River. It hasn't been that cold in a long time. Have you seen any ice breakers in the channel?

One thing I've noticed about the ECMWF AI (AIFS) is that the deterministic AI model is sometimes at the extreme of the ensemble output (for example, temperature highlighted in red towards the end of the forecast period). I don't remember this often occurring with the operational numerical model. Also, what are the small red numbers highlighted above the precipitation amount forecast in the last few days of the output? 15 degree minimum temperature difference today between me at 420 ft. vs. KSMQ at 105 ft. and 4 miles WNW this morning. A very steep inversion.

I would give my spleen for a dewpoint of 77 F right now. Florida isn't even an option these days. Yesterday Miami was in the 50s with fog. My skin is dry too, but where I suffer the most is my nose and sinuses. Give me 33 F, rain and dense fog any day of the week.

That would be great if it was. Hopefully the wind records can be verified. I watched on RTE News the highest ever sustained wind was also recorded in Ireland, at 135 km/h. I went to the Valentia Observatory a few years ago and there was not a human around. A nice automated setup though. https://valentiaisland.ie/history_culture/valentia-observatory/ Today: https://maps.app.goo.gl/MJ19XroqVhVzhJnk7

https://www.met.ie/latest-reports/observations Malin Head in Donegal failed as well. If you are ever in Ireland, it's fun visiting these automated stations. Hopefully the authority in Ireland can verify these historic measurements soon. https://www.rte.ie/

Nick is a great guy and he has had a wonderful career, especially considering our media market. And if you need a Designated Examiner at HPN you may want to make friends with him.

Regarding the storm on January 19th, the liquid equiv. precipitation amounts on Cocorahs across the area seem to fall into line with the consensus model predictions, but along the coast snowfall amounts tended to be less than forecast. I think this was likely due to the warm boundary layer and melting snow/mixed precip/rain during the initial part of the event.

In retrospect, this ECMWF AIFS forecast made total sense. EWR went below freezing this evening just before 7 pm with 2 inches of new snow on the ground for the storm (so far). The AIFS (AI model) had the warm layer properly forecasted 60 hours in advance. The Google Graphcast had an even longer lead time, and the GFS MOS and 1000 hPa GFS charts eventually also showed the warm boundary layer near the coast. The AI models (including their temperature forecasts) are to be respected, in my opinion. The models did not fail in the situation. I'm glad the end of this storm has a good band of moderate to heavy snow more many people.

The band in eastern PA is solid, 3/8 SM or less visibilities at MUI, LNS, MDT, MRB and RSP. That should provide some moderate to heavy snow for the NYC Metro area this evening before the snow comes to the end.

KEWR 191751Z 02008KT 10SM FEW021 SCT037 OVC055 04/M01 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB38E51 SLP080 P0000 60000 T00391011 10044 20028 58033 $

Higher than modeled?

Starting off the morning with my 2 rain gauges and snowboard ready for later today. 34 F with a broken layer of altocumulus. At ground level there is plenty of black ice. The 0.06" of rain yesterday melted the remaining snow on the ground. Hoping it works out for those of you along the coast that want snow. Compared to the 06Z GFS MOS, LGA and EWR are already above forecast temperatures and dewpoints.

Both PHI and OKX mention the possibility of rain at the start along the coast in their AFDs.

A lot of CMC trash talk. While the CMC shift was more significant for major population centers, I'll suggest the ECMWF was more meteorologically significant. The ECMWF AIFS AI did better, but it's likely the Google model did the best. There are still warm air issues along the coast and urban areas tomorrow for at least the first few hours of precipitation. NYC/EWR will be at best slush tomorrow afternoon, and could very well end up being melted snow or even a cold rain. Google Graphcast had the most correct position of the low since Jan 15: