EWR757

Looks like EWR has had a peak wind of 51 mph so far today.

I live about 3 miles ESE of SMQ and 300' higher on the First Watchung Mountain. There was a 20 degree temperature difference between the SMQ ASOS at 1:30 am (37 F) and my house (57 F). Quite the temperature inversion.

Light rainshower in Bridgewater, NJ this afternoon.

Amazing difference in weather from north to south today across the region. I was paddleboarding at a lake in NJ near I-80 today while it was raining and cold (temperature in the 40s) in Orange County, New York.

Again, I'll disagree. I work in the aviation business where weather observations and forecasts are legally binding. They determine how much fuel needs to be on board, what contigency plans and airports must be available (if any), what airplane can land or fly a route, what type of airplane can't, etc. If aviation prepared for the worst, always...an airplane would never get off the ground. Risk = 0% is unattainable. The big difference in my opinion, is that the decisions the aviation community makes are based on numerical data, a METAR, a TAF, dimensions of a SIGMET, a winds aloft forecast. Then there are laws that govern the response after the data is received. There isn't too much subjectivity. And aviation is incredibly safe and it gets safer over time. If the message was as the NHC forecast predicted...this will likely go south of TPA, we are forecasting a CAT 3 but that is on the highest end of the intensity guidance, and the hurricane force winds only extend outward of 30 miles from the center...I think many people would have behaved differently. What they heard is that a CAT 5 is coming, Tampa will be destroyed and the western coastline of Florida will be redrawn forever. It simply wasn't scientifically accurate or predicted. Emergency planning has some politics involved and conflicts of interest, unfortunately. Treating all citizens as equally capable is a mistake. A Piper Cub and a Boeing 747 get effected by wind differently. A 30 year old in a multi-million dollar house has less risk than a disabled elderly person in a multi-wide. Broad, mandated evacuation orders (similar to what happened during COVID with broad lockdowns, etc.) have destructive economic and social implications. I know a cancer patient to drove north of Orlando "to safety" and slept his car because there were no hotels. His cancer treatment in Sarasota has been delayed by at least 3 weeks. "Hope for the best"...whatever. More science, less politics and ego.

I strongly disagree. There are risks and consequences associated with "preparing". Many educated people I know did not understand this storm would begin to dissipate before it made landfall. Many people prepared for a CAT 5 and that was NEVER in the forecast. Sometimes reacting causes more problems than sitting quietly.

Beautiful pictures last night, but mother nature should really schedule these beautiful light shows when the Yankees and Devils are not playing. Quite honestly, I have the failures of the 1980s Yankees to thank for my love of weather. Looking up at the cumulus clouds took the pain away...

Most insurance companies, even large and popular names simply won't pay adequate adjustments on claims. They will fight for months and years. Most customers will eventually give up, some will fight back with adjusters, mediation and potentially litigation. The business is changed and insurance is much more profitable than it used to be, because quite frankly the insurers do everything they can to avoid paying claims. AllState's motto was once "you are in good hands". They now fight you, their customer, with boxing gloves. Ethical insurance companies are few and far between. Getting insurance is easy (even in FL), getting a reasonable payout on a large claim is quite another. It's a shame these practices are legal.

The NHC as usual did a great job. How people interpret that information and the histrionics and politics added after the fact, well, we need to work on that a bit.

Still no rain this month, and it doesn't look like there will be an opportunity anytime soon.

I'm glad damage seems less than anticipated. I thought the CAT 5 surge was "baked in"?

CAT 1 winds forecast at KSRQ with tropical storm force winds forecast at KPIE and KTPA KSRQ 091141Z 0912/1012 08014G22KT 6SM -RA VCTS SCT010CB BKN030 TEMPO 0912/0916 08020G30KT 1SM +TSRA BKN010CB FM091600 09018G28KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0916/0920 09025G40KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092000 10025G40KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0920/0924 09035G50KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100000 10035G55KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100500 13080G110KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 30050G75KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 KPIE 091143Z 0912/1012 07014G22KT 5SM -RA SCT008 BKN020 TEMPO 0912/0916 2SM SHRA BKN008 FM091800 07015G25KT 4SM -RA BR VCTS SCT006CB OVC015 TEMPO 0918/0922 07020G35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092200 07030G45KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0922/1002 07040G55KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100500 06040G60KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 03050G70KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 KTPA 091144Z 0912/1018 07012G18KT 5SM -RA SCT008 BKN020 TEMPO 0912/0916 2SM SHRA BKN008 FM091800 07015G25KT 4SM -RA BR VCTS SCT006CB OVC015 TEMPO 0918/0922 07020G35KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM092200 07022G32KT 3SM RA BR SCT006 OVC015 TEMPO 0922/1002 07025G40KT 1SM +TSRA BKN006CB FM100500 06035G55KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM100800 03040G65KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 FM101200 33030G45KT P6SM VCSH SCT006 OVC015

While the ridge has been impressive with the Jetstream westerlies on the north side there has been a persistent easterly flow in the Atlantic south of Iceland and Greenland, so it's been possible for trans-Atlantic air traffic to have tailwind in both directions the last couple weeks.

Quite a bit of uncertainty and it’s 3-4 days prior to landfall. A lot of things are possible as of now.

An evening paddle on Cranberry Lake, Byram, NJ.