PhiEaglesfan712

I'm tracking it. I was just answering that person's question. I was just in the office yesterday because I actually have to do work, so I didn't have time to post on the Blizzard thread. I have posted on there in previous days, like Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. Nope, it's going the way I had predicted it. I did say there was a possibility of one big snowstorm during the final week of February, before the winter went away for good in the last days of February/first days of March. I always prefer 80 and sunny, like 3/29/2025. I realize it's just not going to happen all the time. Some days it's going to be hotter, and some days it's going to be colder. But some months have an obvious cold signal and you know are going to be cold heading into it, like this month or March 2015. But just be aware that things do eventually swing the other way. Some of our coldest winters, like 2010, 2011, and 2015, had torch months during the spring. March 2010, April 2010, May 2010, April 2011, May 2011, and May 2015 are all Top 10 warmest months. Do not be surprised if one of this spring's months turn out very warm.

Probably not, but temps should be in the 40s or 50s during that week, maybe even a 60. We should see a 70 at some point in the middle third of the month.

New maps show first two-thirds of March warm:

Above temperature departure seems like a lock. We're in a dissipating la nina, and headed into MJO Phase 4 after this weekend's event. Plus, there is very little cold air to work with. These ingredients set the stage for a warm first half of March at least.

Late February/early March 2015 comes to mind. Although, things turned warmer as the spring went on. May 2015 was near record warm. NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3 I won't be surprised if one of the spring months was near record warm.

No, that was just the snow getting slushy and melting. My sister and I went for a walk on Monday afternoon. Someone didn't clean their pathway, so my sister walked slowly and carefully on it because she didn't want to get her sneakers dirty.

I'm starting to think February 23, 1987 is a good analog for this storm.

The problem with this is that there is limited cold air and the sun angle. It will likely be all rain, that is if we even have precipitation.

There's always next winter. I just hope the PDO turns positive, more so than an el nino.

It feels like curtains on the winter. With the sun angle increasing, it's only going to get tougher to get the cold air necessary for a snowstorm.

These will not verify. The problem is that there is limited cold air, and the increasing sun angle. I guarantee there will be more >60 highs than <40 highs during the first week of March. No way we see a temp of 25 at 1 pm on March 3 in NYC. That's like record low territory.

That's the most recent one. The 3-4 week gets updated weekly (on Fridays), so the next update is on Feb 20 (for March 7-20).

The CPC disagrees, as the first half of March looks warm:

I'm not sure if anyone posted this yet, but the MEI for January was -0.8

I never thought it would be a MA storm, and that's probably is a good thing for NYC and PHL. If this turns out to be a MA storm, then NYC and PHL will get close to nothing.

Yeah, the further south you went, the more disappointing the storm was. Amazing how the snow was pretty much all in the first 10 days. The pattern totally flipped in March, and of course, we had record warm temperatures during the entire spring and summer.

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

What do you mean by debbie downer? I was saying 4-6 inches for this area. By the way, here was that snowstorm:

Phase 3 is still cold in late February. I think exiting 3/entering 4 is the sweet spot for a snow event, though the pattern should change for the warmer after the event.

I have that as the top analog for this storm. It feels like a last hurrah, and I think it's going to be a historic one in NYC, while PHL gets a good 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA get near nothing.

My top analog is 2/26/2010. Feels like a last hurrah (after a brief warm-up), and I think this will miss just north, with NYC having a historic snowstorm, while PHL gets 4-6 inches, and BWI/DCA gets close to nothing, as the winter is pretty much over in those cities.

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

We do it again a month later. 1957-58 was a historical snow season. 2009-10 might have beaten it in terms of total snowfall, but the cold and snowy weather lingered a lot longer in 57-58. In 09-10, winter was long over by the time we got to the vernal equinox, and we were already 90 degrees by the first week of April. We didn't get that until at least late June, maybe early July, in 1958.

I said it was coming in March and April. That hasn't changed.