PhiEaglesfan712

And don't forget about the 8 in 5 years between Isabel (in 2003) and Dean/Felix (in 2007). [We still need 2 more between now and next year to tie that one.] That's 20 Category 5 hurricanes since 2003, which is about one per year.

Hyperactive hurricane seasons (180+ ACE) by decade: 1890s (1) - 1893 1900s, 1910s (0) 1920s (1) - 1926 1930s (1) - 1933 1940s (0) 1950s (1, possibly 2) - 1950, 1955 (maybe) 1960s (1) - 1961 1970s, 1980s (0) 1990s (2) - 1995, 1998 2000s (2) - 2004, 2005 2010s (1) - 2017 2020s (1) - 2020 Arranged by gap 33 years - (1961-1995) 32 years - (1893-1926) 16 years - (1933-1950) 11 years - (2005-2017) 10 years - (1950-1961*) 6 years - (1926-1933) 5 years - (1998-2004) current gap (2020-present) is 4 years, likely to become 5 at the end of the season 2 years - (1995-1998; 2017-2020) 0 years - (2004-2005) * - gaps become 4 years (1950-1955) and 5 years (1955-1961) if 1955 is counted Arranged by 10 ACE 180-190 (2) - 2020 (180.3725), 1998 (181.8838) [1955 is 178.585] 190-200 (1) - 1961 (196.95) 200-210, 210-220 (0) 220-230 (5) - 2017 (224.8775), 1926 (225.7788), 2004 (226.94), 1950 (227.1413), 1995 (227.5513) 230-240 (2) - 1893 (231.0738), 1933 (235.785) 240-250 (1) - 2005 (247.65)

All of the cold and pretty much most of the snow was confined to month (January). December was really warm. Come to think of it, 2021-22 was a warmer, modern version of 1984-85.

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning. Who won your game? (Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

I'd say the unlucky pattern started after the 15-16 el nino. The only real KUs since then were the January 31/early February 2021 and late January 2022 ones, and even those didn't bullseye my area. It was a combination of things that caused it, but you could start to see the cracks forming as early as 11-12. 13-14 and 14-15 were the last real sustained winters. 17-18 was a good cold season, but you had two random record warm months, in October and February.

Today is the 40th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria: This was as bad as Sandy, maybe even worse.

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

We're overdue for a 100-degree heat wave in late August/early September. We haven't had one since 1953.

The last wall-to-wall -EPO -WPO pattern was in 2013-14 and 2014-15, correct?

Where did Sandy develop?

I like 1949-50 as an analog better than 1950-51. (By the way, those years still hold the record for the least snowy 2-year period at PHL.) 50-51 was a very active Atlantic hurricane season. By my calculation, it is the 5th highest ACE season at 227.1413 (Wunderground has it as the 2nd highest at 243). We don't have anywhere near that this year. November 1950 was month of weird extremes. In some places in the east, you had high temperatures in the 80s (at the beginning of the month), and by the 25th, you had low temperatures near 0.

Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall: 1 2005 247.65 3 1893 231.0738 11 2020 180.3725

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter. If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral. La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

07-08 is one of those rare winters that didn't follow the November/December la nina rule. We got a cold November/December, with a snowstorm on December 5. Instead of a cold and snowy winter, January-April was warm with very little snow.

Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16.

Yeah, a 1949-50 or 2022-23 snowless type season is not out of the question. Some places could even set a new record low for the least snowy 10-year period in 2025-26. For example, PHL would break the record (set from 1922-23 through 1931-32) with less than 13.4 inches of snow this upcoming winter.

We had a repeat in 2002-03 through 2004-05. 02-03 was a blockbuster winter, 03-04 was cold, and 04-05 had above average snowfall.

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.

If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.

If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.

I'm pretty sure this 2-year ACE record is going to stand for a very long time. 6 2004 226.94 1 2005 247.65 Even in this era of more storms, we've only had 2 hyperactive ACE seasons post-2005: 8 2017 224.8775 11 2020 180.3725

For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.