PhiEaglesfan712

They're just going to have to hope that everything comes together in early-mid March, like it did to save 2009 and 2017. Those seasons were going below average without March. If it doesn't snow, it might be better if January and February torched than if they were cold. If those months are cold, then it's likely that March is going to be warm, and if that's the case, then the winter's cooked. Remember, we've been in a cold pattern for the most part since August. A uber warm month is lurking around the corner.

There's no way you all can be calling this the biggest mid-winter la nina collapse when 2022-23 literally happened just a few years ago. That year, you had a deep multi-year moderate la nina to begin the season turn into an ENSO neutral by winter's end, and later transitioned into a strong el nino the following season. We barely had a la nina this year.

I think everyone in here would be up for a moderate el nino, with a neutral or +PDO.

I just hope the flip +PDO will last long term, and not fizzle out quickly like it did following the dissipation of the strong el nino in 2016.

It has happened before. That decade between 1982-92 had 3 back-to-back-to-back: the super el nino in the early 80s (82-83), a double-season strong el nino in 86-88 (which peaked in summer 87), and another strong el nino in the early 90s (91-92), though its warming effects were muted due to Pinatubo. However, that was during a +PDO strangehold.

December 2025 PDO: -1.01 Record 72nd straight month (and completes 6 straight years) of negative PDO values: 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.52 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.58 -0.98 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.67 -1.84 -2.04 -1.82 -2.00 -0.95 -1.96 -3.14 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.09 -2.23 -1.31 -2.63 -2.38 -2.28 -1.81 -2.40 -2.21 2023 -1.24 -1.65 -2.45 -3.08 -2.41 -2.55 -2.54 -2.48 -2.99 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66 2024 -1.57 -1.34 -1.54 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.01 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.67 -2.64 -4.21 -3.23 -2.32 -2.37 -1.54 -1.01

+5F above average or a Top 10 warmest month. Since 2015-16, that has happened at least once in the November-March period, except for 2018-19: 15-16 - November, December, March 16-17 - January, February 17-18 - February 18-19 - None 19-20 - January, February, March 20-21 - November 21-22 - December 22-23 - January, February 23-24 - December, March 24-25 - November, March

La nina being basically dead does not mean it's not going to torch. In fact, the last time a la nina dissipated (in 2023), January and February absolutely torched in the East. Remember, the East has been in a cool pattern since August. We are due for a well above average temperature departure month.

We've been in a cold streak for the most part since August. We are well overdue for a well warmer than average month.

I'm not really mad about last night's loss. I'd much rather the loss yesterday than next week. If the Eagles had won last night and lost next week, it would have been all for nothing. At least if the Eagles win next week, then everything is forgiven. It's not like we had a perfect home season to defend. (I'm still a bit annoyed that we lost the last game of the 2017 season to the Cowboys before winning Super Bowl LII, but it's been forgiven.) Besides, we kept the 11-win regular season streak alive, and have a chance to tie 2000-04 next year.

Not sure why you posted it again. You could have waited for the ND update, which is probably next week.

Yeah, I posted on Dec 9 that the MEI updated:

lol, this looks more like an el nino or a +PDO than a typical -ENSO/-PDO.

Yeah, the last time a clipper really worked out was the one in January 2005, which turned into a Nor'easter.

That happens in just about any la nina December in years ending in 5 or 0. 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010 were all very cold and snowy Decembers. Even 2020, which was near normal temperaturewise, had a big snowstorm in the middle of the month.

If we don't have a good snowstorm in January 1-10, we might be waiting a long time for one. Maybe even until next year. Remember, we've had below average temperatures for most of the time since August. It's only a matter of time before it swings back the other way, and we have above average temperature departures. And once we have that, the chances of snow will be tougher.

The January 26-27, 2011 snowstorm compares. That was an overnight snow, but I remember the intense thunder snow keeping me awake.

That was the best weather day of the year. I'm sure everyone enjoyed it, well except MJO812. Bring on 80s and sunny any day over the slop we got this weekend.

That was the last real cold blast in the Eastern US. That was also the only winter in the last decade (since 2015-16) that didn't have a uber warm (+5.0 temperature departure) month in the November-March period. If we don't get a torch month in January, February, or March, we would really be bucking a trend.

I was iced last January, as well as in late February/early March 2015.

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

We don't even need to go back that far to get a mean monthly temp of 25. That happened in February 2015, part of a 3-month period (January-March 2015) that was the coldest post-1980.

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March.

Great wall-to-wall winter, actually. Technically, 17-18 and 20-21 also had above average December snowfall.