PhiEaglesfan712

Got down to 32 in this morning: 09 06:56 E 3 10.00 Fair CLR 33.1 28.9 85% 29.94 1014.0 09 05:56 SE 6 10.00 Fair CLR 32 30 92% 27 29.92 1013.5 09 04:56 SE 5 10.00 Fair CLR 32 28.9 88% 28 29.92 1013.1 09 03:56 SE 6 10.00 Fair CLR 33.1 28.9 85% 28 29.92 1013.1 09 02:56 SE 3 10.00 Fair CLR 32 28 85% 29.92 1013.2 I'm headed back home for some afternoon delight with temps in the 70s.

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event: 1994-03-01 38 24 31.0 -7.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 2 1994-03-02 30 26 28.0 -11.0 37 0 0.40 4.0 2 1994-03-03 35 27 31.0 -8.2 34 0 0.62 1.0 7 1994-03-04 48 30 39.0 -0.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 7 1994-03-05 45 34 39.5 -0.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 5 1994-03-06 42 30 36.0 -4.0 29 0 T T 4 1994-03-07 50 33 41.5 1.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 4 1994-03-08 48 35 41.5 1.0 23 0 0.12 0.0 1 1994-03-09 36 30 33.0 -7.7 32 0 0.29 T T 1994-03-10 46 32 39.0 -2.0 26 0 1.62 0.0 T 1994-03-11 47 31 39.0 -2.2 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-12 46 26 36.0 -5.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-13 52 33 42.5 0.7 22 0 T 0.0 T 1994-03-14 54 41 47.5 5.4 17 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-15 55 41 48.0 5.7 17 0 0.11 0.0 T 1994-03-16 45 24 34.5 -8.1 30 0 T T 0 1994-03-17 37 21 29.0 -13.9 36 0 0.02 0.3 T 1994-03-18 33 25 29.0 -14.2 36 0 0.26 2.8 0 Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm. This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

There's a difference between chilly and snowstorm. Temps in the 40s, probably. But if you're holding out hope for snow, it's probably not going to happen. Almost always, snow after March 15 is accompanied by cold before it. We don't have that now.

You might have to go to the Southern Hemisphere for it, lol.

Nope, nothing alike. The high temperature for the entire month of March 1958 was 54. We're at 72 on the 2 pm EDT observation. There isn't going to be a historic snowstorm around the vernal equinox.

A wild ride here in temperatures. Still very warm: 08 07:56 Vrbl 7 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW015 SCT042 BKN080 53.1 48.9 54 43 86% 29.64 1003.4 08 06:56 SW 8 G 17 10.00 Overcast SCT015 BKN023 OVC060 54 51.1 90% 29.63 1003.2 08 05:56 Vrbl 3 10.00 Overcast OVC015 53.1 51.1 93% 29.63 1002.9 08 04:56 Vrbl 7 G 21 10.00 Overcast OVC017 53.1 50 89% 29.63 1002.9

Vermont is more influenced by the mountains. But there has a been a wild temperature swing the last 12-18 hours. From 58 to 40 and now back up to 54 at 7 am. Still well above average for this time of year at that latitude, and quite a contrast from negative temperatures following the late January snowstorm.

If you're still holding out hope for a snow event, it's time to let go. The only people in the Eastern US that may see a wintry precipitation event going forward is in Northern New England, I'm not even sure they will get one.

Mid-50s in Vermont: 07 15:56 N 3 10.00 Fair CLR 54 43 67% 29.8 1009.1 07 14:56 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT046 SCT095 55.9 44.1 65% 29.84 1010.2 07 13:56 N 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW055 BKN110 54 42.1 64% 29.88 1011.7 I'm here until Monday morning.

If that's true, then it's warmer where I am in Vermont. I'm seeing mid-50s: 07 15:56 N 3 10.00 Fair CLR 54 43 67% 29.8 1009.1 07 14:56 Calm 10.00 Partly Cloudy SCT046 SCT095 55.9 44.1 65% 29.84 1010.2 07 13:56 N 3 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW055 BKN110 54 42.1 64% 29.88 1011.7

11 years ago:

February 2026 PDO is -1.01 This is the 74th straight month with a -PDO value.

Not really, recently all of our cold/snowy winters seem to be consecutive: 2002-03, 2003-04, 2004-05; 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11; and 2013-14, 2014-15.

Yeah, you need a lot of cold air in place. In the years when we had big snowstorms post-March 15 (1956, 1958, 2018, etc.) there were many days with below average temperatures (mostly in the 40s and even 30s, as well as at least one snow event) leading up to it: 1956-03-06 47 38 42.5 2.1 22 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-07 51 38 44.5 3.8 20 0 0.13 0.0 0 1956-03-08 45 31 38.0 -3.0 27 0 0.50 T 0 1956-03-09 49 30 39.5 -1.8 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-10 56 34 45.0 3.4 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-11 59 40 49.5 7.6 15 0 0.06 0.0 0 1956-03-12 48 33 40.5 -1.7 24 0 0.09 T 0 1956-03-13 38 32 35.0 -7.5 30 0 0.09 0.7 T 1956-03-14 48 37 42.5 -0.3 22 0 1.56 0.0 0 1956-03-15 42 34 38.0 -5.1 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1956-03-16 36 26 31.0 -12.4 34 0 0.73 1.3 T 1956-03-17 33 23 28.0 -15.7 37 0 T T 1 1956-03-18 30 25 27.5 -16.5 37 0 0.56 5.4 0 1956-03-19 30 23 26.5 -17.8 38 0 0.35 3.3 7 1958-03-01 46 39 42.5 3.4 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-02 53 34 43.5 4.1 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-03 49 38 43.5 3.9 21 0 0.17 0.0 0 1958-03-04 46 34 40.0 0.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-05 47 34 40.5 0.3 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-06 50 30 40.0 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-07 49 35 42.0 1.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-08 46 31 38.5 -2.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-09 40 28 34.0 -7.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-10 53 34 43.5 1.9 21 0 T T 0 1958-03-11 54 31 42.5 0.6 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-12 45 35 40.0 -2.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-13 42 29 35.5 -7.0 29 0 0.39 1.4 1 1958-03-14 39 32 35.5 -7.3 29 0 0.66 0.6 2 1958-03-15 44 36 40.0 -3.1 25 0 0.00 0.0 T 1958-03-16 42 33 37.5 -5.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-17 44 31 37.5 -6.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1958-03-18 48 31 39.5 -4.5 25 0 T 0.0 0 1958-03-19 38 33 35.5 -8.8 29 0 0.81 1.4 0 1958-03-20 35 32 33.5 -11.2 31 0 1.76 9.6 4 2018-03-02 45 32 38.5 -0.9 26 0 0.86 1.5 0 2018-03-03 46 35 40.5 0.9 24 0 T T 1 2018-03-04 48 31 39.5 -0.4 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-05 47 30 38.5 -1.7 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-06 48 29 38.5 -1.9 26 0 0.23 0.1 0 2018-03-07 36 32 34.0 -6.7 31 0 1.28 6.0 T 2018-03-08 40 31 35.5 -5.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 4 2018-03-09 42 30 36.0 -5.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 3 2018-03-10 44 29 36.5 -5.1 28 0 0.00 0.0 2 2018-03-11 46 28 37.0 -4.9 28 0 0.00 0.0 1 2018-03-12 43 29 36.0 -6.2 29 0 0.06 T 0 2018-03-13 42 32 37.0 -5.5 28 0 0.03 T T 2018-03-14 41 29 35.0 -7.8 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-15 46 32 39.0 -4.1 26 0 T 0.0 0 2018-03-16 42 31 36.5 -6.9 28 0 T T 0 2018-03-17 48 28 38.0 -5.7 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-18 50 31 40.5 -3.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-19 52 33 42.5 -1.8 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2018-03-20 35 29 32.0 -12.7 33 0 0.40 0.9 0 2018-03-21 36 31 33.5 -11.5 31 0 1.06 6.7 1 We just don't have that coming up this year. We have temps forecasted in the 60s and 70s. I have a feeling anyone holding out hope for more snow is going to end up disappointed.

No, but anyone with common sense knows that there won't be 2 snow events post-March 10. That's only happened once ever (in 2018), and temperatures had cooled long before that. We won't get 2 snow events after this warmup. Besides, I haven't been wrong on everything this winter. I did say December would be below average temperaturewise, and I called this March warmup at least a month in advance.

With the upcoming warmup, March is almost certainly going to end up above average in the Eastern 1/3 of the US. The only way we get a below average temperature departure is if we have something like this: 2011-03-23 40 32 36.0 -8.8 29 0 0.87 T 0 2011-03-24 44 30 37.0 -8.2 28 0 0.09 1.0 1 2011-03-25 42 28 35.0 -10.5 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-26 40 26 33.0 -12.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-27 45 28 36.5 -9.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-28 45 26 35.5 -11.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-29 49 31 40.0 -6.9 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2011-03-30 53 36 44.5 -2.8 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2011-03-31 43 37 40.0 -7.7 25 0 0.13 T 0

We all know that isn't going to happen. The sun angle is too high and the ground/temps are too warm. Any precip that falls from now until October will be rain.

Cold is not returning any time soon:

The difference is that in 2018, as well as in 2017, we had record warm Februarys. It shouldn't be surprising that things corrected, and we got snowy Marches those years. That's nothing like what we have this year. We had a cold and snowy February (and winter overall), like 2010. Things corrected in the opposite direction, and we got a warm March and the below average temperatures never came back (until the following winter). I feel like we closer to this scenario than 2017 and 2018.

It was 2013 and 2014.

I'm thinking more like 2010. 2012 came off a wall-to-wall warm and snowless winter. 2010 came off a more cold and snowy winter, but flipped warm once the calendar flipped to March, and never really looked back.

The colder global temperature sweet spot ended with the 1997-98 el nino. Temperatures jumped with that super el nino, and have never went back to the pre-1997 baseline. Pinatubo was most likely the reason for the colder global temperature sweet spot.

Yeah, we should pin the 2026-27 el nino thread, and unpin the 2023-24 el nino.