PhiEaglesfan712

If I remember correctly, the RONI and ONI were almost in line in 2009-10. The 86-87 one was weird. The RONI had a double peak, while the ONI peaked in the summer. JJA 1986 RONI: 0.25 ONI: 0.3 JAS 1986 RONI: 0.55 ONI: 0.6 ASO 1986 RONI: 0.87 ONI: 0.9 SON 1986 RONI: 1.12 ONI: 1.1 OND 1986 RONI: 1.35 ONI: 1.2 NDJ 1986 RONI: 1.49 ONI: 1.2 DJF 1987 RONI: 1.54 ONI: 1.2 - First RONI (winter) peak JFM 1987 RONI: 1.43 ONI: 1.2 FMA 1987 RONI: 1.17 ONI: 1.1 MAM 1987 RONI: 0.87 ONI: 1.0 AMJ 1987 RONI: 0.77 ONI: 1.1 MJJ 1987 RONI: 0.94 ONI: 1.3 JJA 1987 RONI: 1.23 ONI: 1.6 JAS 1987 RONI: 1.46 ONI: 1.7 - Second RONI (summer) peak ASO 1987 RONI: 1.43 ONI: 1.8 - ONI peak SON 1987 RONI: 1.24 ONI: 1.7 OND 1987 RONI: 1.02 ONI: 1.4 NDJ 1987 RONI: 0.93 ONI: 1.1 DJF 1988 RONI: 0.65 ONI: 0.7 JFM 1988 RONI: 0.30 ONI: 0.3 So, the RONI began and ended the el nino at roughly the same. In between, the RONI was ahead by as much as .34 over the ONI in the winter. This would flip flop during the year, as the ONI ended up ahead as much as .46 over the RONI by the fall. Of course, when this el nino dissipated, it transitioned into a strong la nina in 1988-89 (just as the 2009-10 strong el nino transitioned into the 2010-11 strong la nina).

Knowing what I know now, I probably would have used 1957-58 and 2009-10 as the best analogs for 2023-24. 1957-58 had the best ENSO match to 2023-24 (I mean the 5 year lead up matches perfectly: 1952-54 disjointed el nino = 2018-20 disjointed el nino and 1954-57 triple la nina = 2020-23 triple la nina). 2009-10 had the best RONI match to 2023-24. Both 1957-58 and 2009-10 were very snowy winters in the PHL area, so I probably would have predicted 2023-24 to be a very snowy winter, which didn't pan out.

This would almost be a perfect ENSO/RONI/subsurface match to 1998-99.

1998 is a very good analog:

That cold pool in the subsurface is getting stronger. A strong la nina is definitely coming at some point in the next 12 months.

I still think the anti-1986 scenario is in play, where we get a strong la nina, but it peaks in the summer of 2025 rather than in the winter. If this happens, then how fast the la nina dissipates in 2026 will be key on whether we have an el nino in 2026-27, and how strong it will be. One thing to keep in mind is that la ninas are much harder to dissipate than el ninos. Perhaps the biggest reason why we were able to get a historic la nina in 1988-89 is the fact that the el nino that peaked in the summer of 1987 quickly dissipated starting in early 1988.

2011 is another year that had a rainy August-September. Oddly enough, both 1999 and 2011 led into 2nd year la ninas.

I'm going to assume that one of those 1988's is supposed to be a 1998. If that's the case, then all of those +PNA Julys produced a strong la nina, with the exception of 2022 (which was a 3rd straight moderate la nina year). Of course, 2022 was the only one that didn't transition from an el nino the previous year. So, we'd be breaking some trends if we don't get a strong la nina out of this.

MJJ ONI (NOAA): +0.2C MJJ RONI: -0.38C

Rainy week ahead:

At PHL, 1998-99 stayed warm throughout all of August-February, and didn't have a below average temperature month until March. April and May were near normal. 2007-08 had a very warm August-October, then went below average in November. December was near normal, and we didn't have another below average month until May. My prediction: August-October: Well above average November-December: Near average January-February: Above average March-May: Near average

I hate that the graph cuts off at 2010, so we don't get to see the entire picture of that first strong el nino in full. I wish they had started in 2009. But the fact that the 2019-20 (a year with barely an el nino) had more red than the start of 2010 (at the peak of a strong el nino) should tell you all you need to know about global warming in the 2010s decade.

I'm not sure if this has been done before, but can someone do a blend map for Dec-Feb 1998-99 and 2007-08, as well as a spring (Feb-April or March-May) 1999 and 2008 blend.

This is almost eerily similar to 1998-99, which became a strong la nina. I really like 1998-99 and 2007-08 as my analogs. We'll probably get below average snowfall here in the mid-Atlantic, but there will be some spots that really get the snow.

Yeah, there is close to zero potential for an el nino in either 2024-25 or 2025-26. Both years are likely to be la nina. I'll get back next summer after I take a look at the subsurface, and let you know if there is a potential for an el nino in 2026-27.

If a strong or super el nino is going to form, you'll be able to see it in the subsurface well in advance. I think we can all agree with the subsurface we have right now that there is pretty much no chance of a strong el nino happening in 2025-26. If a strong el nino were to form in 2026-27, you should see a warm pool (like the ones below) in the subsurface by the summer of 2025: The warm pools in the subsurface in June 2008 and June 2022 preceded the strong el ninos of 2009-10 and 2023-24, respectively.

We really only got one cold and snowy month at PHL that winter, and that was February 2021. Those closer to the coast, like ACY, escaped the snow that year for the most part. So, pretty much an inverse of 2017-18.

For me, 2007-08 is the best match and 1998-99 is the second best.

The blocking in 2020 didn't come until after the winter was over. We did get a cold spell in April and early May, but that was way too late for any snow.

Yeah, which is why 2007-08 is the best analog. If we were getting an ENSO neutral, I'd probably use 1993-94 over 2001-02. That 01-02 is coming off a triple la nina (with no el nino buffer) and has a warm subsurface. 93-94 is a much better subsurface match. 1993: 2001:

What about 2007? Did we also have the strong Maritime Continent that year? That year was less active in the Atlantic outside of Dean and Felix, and the Pacific had a very quiet year. Pretty similar to what we have so far this year.

Any la nina in the 1950s makes the list. The subsurface was warm throughout the decade, even through a double la nina early in the decade and a triple la nina in the middle. 1949-50 1950-51 1954-55 1955-56 (believe it or not, this was a strong la nina - this probably would be #1 on the list) 1956-57

Based on the link, it looks like the subsurface stayed warm throughout the entire triple la nina, and expanded in the year leading into the strong el nino. 1955 (year leading into the strong la nina - amazing how this could form at the same time with such a warm subsurface): 1956 (leading into the final year of the triple la nina, a weak la nina year): 1957 (the year leading into the strong la nina - many years of warm subsurface finally bubbling up to the surface):

Looks like a very hot first week of August on tap: PHL hasn't had a 100-degree day in over 12 years (since July 2012), and in the month of August since 2001. That could be changing very soon.

Maybe some activity in the Atlantic: