PhiEaglesfan712

December 2016 and December 2022 seem like the best matches. We have a lot of the elements of those seasons this year: -ENSO, deep -IOD, la nina background, and strong Pacific jet. Plus, a cooler December. If we don't get the snowstorm, then I really like the 2016-17 and 2022-23 analogs even more (sorry Team Snow). The only places I think that will do well in the East are places like upper New York (Buffalo to Albany), Vermont, and northern New Hampshire/Maine. Places near the coast are going to have a tough time getting snow.

All of a sudden, the skies have cleared. I see a lot of blue sky out there.

I'm pretty sure January 23, 2016 was the last 12"+ snow day in DC. The final measurement was 16, maybe 17 inches, but many people believe it was an undermeasurement. Apparently 5829 days have passed since then.

1984-85 and 2021-22 aren't good analogs because they had torch Decembers. In fact, both winters only had one really cold and snowy month (January). I'd go as far to say that 84-85 is the colder climate version of 21-22.

January 2016 was 5829 days ago already? Dang, I'm getting old, lol.

It might be the start of a trend. DC and Baltimore have been doing better than PHL/NYC/BOS since 2023-24. Then again, there was nowhere to go but up after the snow dearth in DC/Baltimore from 2016-17 to 2022-23.

2005 Dec 5

The last real clipper I remember was the one on January 22, 2005. That one, of course, turned into a Nor'easter.

It's called regression to mean. Especially in a warming climate, it's hard to string together several below average temperature months in a row. Do not be surprised if there is a torch in January and February. That's been a staple of -ENSO/deep -IOD years in recent times (see 2016-17 and 2022-23).

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region. But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

2000-01 may have finished with average snowfall, but the way the season ended, with that epic snow bust in March, made that season feel like a disappointment.

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55 SON 2025 RONI: -0.85 November 2025 PDO: -1.67

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

In this warmer climate, it's very hard to get colder than normal months anymore. So when December 2022 went by with very little/no snow, I knew that winter was in trouble. Cold and very little/no snow December is the worst combination in this warming climate. I'd much have a torch December, like December 2015/2021/2023 because I know that there's at least a chance for it to regress to the mean (unless you have a really bad setup like 2001-02 or 2011-12).

-ENSO and deep -IOD usually favor a cool December, in comparison to the rest of the season. That was the case in 2016-17 and 2022-23. It's January and February when it really torches. If December ends with <1 inch of snow, then the winter is in trouble. That's what happened at PHL, BWI, and DCA those winters. PHL got lucky with the March 2017 snowstorm, but the snow totals for those seasons are as follows: PHL: 0.3 inches 2022-23 BWI: 3.0 inches 2016-17, 0.2 inches 2022-23 DCA: 3.4 inches 2016-17, 0.4 inches 2022-23

We need to take advantage of this. If we come out of this with very little to no snow, the winter will be in trouble. It would be like 2022-23 all over again.

We did get a good 3-week window of cold and snow between December 23 and January 15 in 1998-99. The rest of that winter (first 3 weeks of December and the 2nd half of January/February) was a torch, though.

The best example is 89-90. We had the coldest December on record, then the weather turned springlike when the calender flipped to January.

That's the type of polar vortex you want for colder and snowy weather. A stronger than average polar vortex tends to favor torch conditions.

How much do you think for EWR?

Sorry, the Arena Football League is defunct. However, the Phillies season begins on Thursday, March 26, 2026.

I don't understand why you would abandon the run up 21-0, with a running back as great as Barkley, unless he is truly hurt.

I'm not sure exactly what is causing the warmer WPAC ocean temps. All I know is that something must have happened in between the 2009-10 strong el nino and the 2015-16 super el nino.