PhiEaglesfan712

A good, long blocking pattern in late November or December would be nice. We need the cold to be there in January and February, not May and June.

I think you meant 1979-80 for the record lowest season. 78-79 was a record cold and very snowy February. 79-80 checks out as a record low snow season in the Boston area.

JAS ONI (NOAA): -0.3 JAS RONI: -0.63

Of course, those mid-90s seasons (especially 92-93 and 93-94) were aided by the temporary cool down in climate due to Pinatubo in 1991.

Once the average seasonal snowfall drops below 4 inches (about the current average in Charlotte) in places like Baltimore and DC, then I know we've reached the point of no return. At that point, snowy winters might be a thing of the past. It might not happen with the 2001-30 averages, but it's certainly possible in the 2011-40 averages.

That is one that didn't really follow the early season la nina rule. We got the snowstorm on Dec 5, which would have normally meant a great snow year, but the season fell apart instead. The rest of the winter had very little snow, aside from the Feb 22 event, with January-April slightly above average temperature.

Yeah, 24-25 was, in terms of la nina, what 14-15 and 19-20 was for el nino. All are borderline cases, depending on threshold. At least with 14-15 and 19-20, you generally had a basewide warm neutral, maybe weak el nino (depending on what your threshold is, 0.4, 0.5, 3-trimonthlies, 5-trimonthlies, etc). With 24-25, you had a la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2. Heck, the 1+2 in 24-25 may have had a warmer anomoly than the warm neutral years of 14-15 and 19-20. 24-25 might be the hardest year to classify. Whether you consider it neutral or la nina, it really doesn't fit either in a traditional sense. No other year in history had a 3.4 and 1+2 as disjointed as 24-25.

12-13: ENSO neutral 13-14: ENSO neutral 14-15: warm neutral/weak el nino 15-16: super el nino 16-17: weak la nina 17-18: weak la nina 18-19: weak el nino 19-20: warm neutral/weak el nino 20-21: moderate la nina 21-22: moderate la nina 22-23: moderate la nina (but dissipating) 23-24: strong el nino 24-25: ENSO neutral I count 5 la nina years, 3 el nino years (2 strong ones), 2 borderline warm neutral/weak el nino years, and and 3 ENSO neutral years. If you want to make it 15, then you've got your 7 la nina years.

I'm not so sure. The PDO in 16-17 was essentially an anti-analog of 13-14. If anything, it may be a reason why it torched from November-February. The PDO is too far negative to be in transition. At best, we might have a 12-13 type deal. Maybe if it continues to rise through the spring, then we could call 26-27 a transition year, like 76-77 or 13-14.

With this being a -ENSO and strong -IOD, there is a much higher than normal potential for a very warm January. That's what happened the last 2 times we had that combination, and it continued into February. December is probably the best chance for snow and cold this winter, although 16-17 was saved by a snowstorm in mid-March. But it seems like the winters are ending earlier post-2020, and you can't count on a snowstorm anymore. Heck, snow seems hard to come by since the end of the mid-2010s el nino.

And don't forget about the 8 in 5 years between Isabel (in 2003) and Dean/Felix (in 2007). [We still need 2 more between now and next year to tie that one.] That's 20 Category 5 hurricanes since 2003, which is about one per year.

Hyperactive hurricane seasons (180+ ACE) by decade: 1890s (1) - 1893 1900s, 1910s (0) 1920s (1) - 1926 1930s (1) - 1933 1940s (0) 1950s (1, possibly 2) - 1950, 1955 (maybe) 1960s (1) - 1961 1970s, 1980s (0) 1990s (2) - 1995, 1998 2000s (2) - 2004, 2005 2010s (1) - 2017 2020s (1) - 2020 Arranged by gap 33 years - (1961-1995) 32 years - (1893-1926) 16 years - (1933-1950) 11 years - (2005-2017) 10 years - (1950-1961*) 6 years - (1926-1933) 5 years - (1998-2004) current gap (2020-present) is 4 years, likely to become 5 at the end of the season 2 years - (1995-1998; 2017-2020) 0 years - (2004-2005) * - gaps become 4 years (1950-1955) and 5 years (1955-1961) if 1955 is counted Arranged by 10 ACE 180-190 (2) - 2020 (180.3725), 1998 (181.8838) [1955 is 178.585] 190-200 (1) - 1961 (196.95) 200-210, 210-220 (0) 220-230 (5) - 2017 (224.8775), 1926 (225.7788), 2004 (226.94), 1950 (227.1413), 1995 (227.5513) 230-240 (2) - 1893 (231.0738), 1933 (235.785) 240-250 (1) - 2005 (247.65)

All of the cold and pretty much most of the snow was confined to month (January). December was really warm. Come to think of it, 2021-22 was a warmer, modern version of 1984-85.

Mud football games are fun. My sister played in one during her senior year of high school as a running back. The next door neighbor was a junior in high school, and the running back of the other team. No one was able to stop either of them that day. My sister's team ended up winning. Who won your game? (Oh, and I bet you if Drought Guy was around when Gloria was happening, he'd be talking about how a drought was around the corner...)

I'd say the unlucky pattern started after the 15-16 el nino. The only real KUs since then were the January 31/early February 2021 and late January 2022 ones, and even those didn't bullseye my area. It was a combination of things that caused it, but you could start to see the cracks forming as early as 11-12. 13-14 and 14-15 were the last real sustained winters. 17-18 was a good cold season, but you had two random record warm months, in October and February.

Today is the 40th anniversary of Hurricane Gloria: This was as bad as Sandy, maybe even worse.

I won't be surprised if it verifies. Signature -ENSO/strong -IOD January has very warm anomoly. Here are my top analogs:

We're overdue for a 100-degree heat wave in late August/early September. We haven't had one since 1953.

The last wall-to-wall -EPO -WPO pattern was in 2013-14 and 2014-15, correct?

Where did Sandy develop?

I like 1949-50 as an analog better than 1950-51. (By the way, those years still hold the record for the least snowy 2-year period at PHL.) 50-51 was a very active Atlantic hurricane season. By my calculation, it is the 5th highest ACE season at 227.1413 (Wunderground has it as the 2nd highest at 243). We don't have anywhere near that this year. November 1950 was month of weird extremes. In some places in the east, you had high temperatures in the 80s (at the beginning of the month), and by the 25th, you had low temperatures near 0.

Three of those years rank among the 11 hyperactive (180+ ACE) seasons, with 2 of the Top 3 overall: 1 2005 247.65 3 1893 231.0738 11 2020 180.3725

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter. If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral. La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.