PhiEaglesfan712

I'm skeptical of a super nino developing in 2026-27. They normally don't develop that strong on the first try. 2015-16 is a very good example. Some models were predicting a possible strong el nino as early as 2012-13. I think if there's a super el nino, it will more likely happen in 2027-28. If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I think it will be capped at a high end moderate, possibly low end strong. (We also cannot count out the possibility of a double-year el nino, peaking during the summer, like 1986-88.)

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

It was 21 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... we actually had that happen. Then, of course, the Eagles would go on to win the NFC Championship.

2005 2016

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

How does this compare to the winter of 2014-15?

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me.

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday. If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

Please keep the storm south. I have to travel up north to Vermont on Sunday. I'd much rather it hit North Carolina. My nephews (4, 3 on Sunday, and 5.5 months) have probably never seen a snowstorm before, and they'd probably welcome it. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms, and don't really need it right now.

The 2 in Feb 2012 has to be a mistake. I don't ever remember it getting anywhere near that cold at any point during that winter.

2005 2016

I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years. El Nino 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-87/1987-88 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24 La Nina 1955-56 1973-74 1975-76 1988-89 1998-99 1999-2000 2007-08 2010-11 Which of these years did the PNA not hold?

Yeah, if it was a front-loaded la nina winter, then the warm-up that started on 1/6 would have stuck.

The Rams. The Eagles have beaten every NFC team at least once since 2021, except for the Seahawks.

Only East of the Mississippi. Those were record warm winters in the Western US, especially 14-15, but that one was a +PDO winter.

22-23 was a weakening la nina, and that one torched in January and February.

We all know that isn't going to happen. We don't have a +PDO (like 2014-15) or +ENSO (like 2009-10). Those are the types of winters you need to produce a lot of snow in such a short period of time in the 2nd half of January and February. You're not going to get that in a -PDO/-ENSO like this year.

Did it not in 2013-14 and 2014-15, when we had impressive cold? The nearby lakes in my area (Aetna Lake in Medford, NJ) was completely frozen over in late February/early March 2015.

I think you meant 2003. PD 2023 was a torch, lol.