PhiEaglesfan712

Yeah, those north and west got the snow in 2020-21. The sharp cutoff south and east showed the warmer storm tracks that season. However, in many of the areas south and east that had below normal snowfall in 2020-21, they did better in 2021-22, when many of the storm tracks were colder and closer to the coast in January 2022.

The only time we really had a colder storm track was in 2017-18 and January 2022. Other than that, the classic storm track with a sharp cutoff south and east has been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (that was even the case in many of the 2021 storms). That appears to continue this year. This doesn't bode well for snow lovers in coastal areas, like Atlantic City.

Just look at the storm tracks, and all the sharp cutoffs south and east. It's been a recurrent theme since 2016-17 (with the exception of 2017-18 and January 2022.) If you live in a coastal area, like Atlantic City, you're not going to see much snow this year.

13-14 and 14-15 were really good winters. In 2015, I passed by the Aetna lake in Medford in late February/early March, and it was still frozen over. We don't even get a hard freeze anymore, much less that late in the season.

Definitely agree with that. Plus, December 2023 was warm all the way through. Kind of like 2015 and 2021. All of those years had a regression to the mean in January, with snow and near normal temperature departures. This year we have a cold December so far. We just need a snowfall, or otherwise, we might have a similar situation to December 2022.

December 2023 was an all-out torch. Plus, it was in strong el nino. It's nothing alike to what we have now. The cold air is there this December. We just need a notable snowfall.

If we don't get any snow by the end of December, then I think it maybe time to give up hope. I can't remember a time when we had a good snowy rest of the winter after a cold and low snow December. Almost always, January and February torched in years like that.

December 2010 was colder than December 2005, at least where I live. 05 34.4 -3.0 10 32.7 -4.7 If we do get colder than 2010, then 2000 would be next: 00 31.3 -6.1 Come to think of it, there's a weird coincidence that -ENSO Decembers in years that end in 0 or 5 (doesn't matter the strength) tend to be very cold in the East:

December 2016 and December 2022 seem like the best matches. We have a lot of the elements of those seasons this year: -ENSO, deep -IOD, la nina background, and strong Pacific jet. Plus, a cooler December. If we don't get the snowstorm, then I really like the 2016-17 and 2022-23 analogs even more (sorry Team Snow). The only places I think that will do well in the East are places like upper New York (Buffalo to Albany), Vermont, and northern New Hampshire/Maine. Places near the coast are going to have a tough time getting snow.

All of a sudden, the skies have cleared. I see a lot of blue sky out there.

I'm pretty sure January 23, 2016 was the last 12"+ snow day in DC. The final measurement was 16, maybe 17 inches, but many people believe it was an undermeasurement. Apparently 5829 days have passed since then.

1984-85 and 2021-22 aren't good analogs because they had torch Decembers. In fact, both winters only had one really cold and snowy month (January). I'd go as far to say that 84-85 is the colder climate version of 21-22.

January 2016 was 5829 days ago already? Dang, I'm getting old, lol.

It might be the start of a trend. DC and Baltimore have been doing better than PHL/NYC/BOS since 2023-24. Then again, there was nowhere to go but up after the snow dearth in DC/Baltimore from 2016-17 to 2022-23.

2005 Dec 5

The last real clipper I remember was the one on January 22, 2005. That one, of course, turned into a Nor'easter.

It's called regression to mean. Especially in a warming climate, it's hard to string together several below average temperature months in a row. Do not be surprised if there is a torch in January and February. That's been a staple of -ENSO/deep -IOD years in recent times (see 2016-17 and 2022-23).

At PHL, only August was below average, and November was near normal. Goes to show that it's hard to get a widespread below average month in the region. But considering your area has 3 of the last 4 months below normal (and will likely be 4 out of 5), it's only a matter of time before the pendulum swings the other way.

In this warming climate, it's hard to get more than one month at a time to be colder than average. With all this cold air, if we don't get at least one inch of snow by the end of December, the winter is in real trouble, like 2022-23. Things always tend to regress to the mean, so there's a pretty good chance that January and February will torch.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

2000-01 may have finished with average snowfall, but the way the season ended, with that epic snow bust in March, made that season feel like a disappointment.

SON 2025 ONI: -0.55 SON 2025 RONI: -0.85 November 2025 PDO: -1.67

I assume you mean 2023, instead of 2019.

In this warmer climate, it's very hard to get colder than normal months anymore. So when December 2022 went by with very little/no snow, I knew that winter was in trouble. Cold and very little/no snow December is the worst combination in this warming climate. I'd much have a torch December, like December 2015/2021/2023 because I know that there's at least a chance for it to regress to the mean (unless you have a really bad setup like 2001-02 or 2011-12).

-ENSO and deep -IOD usually favor a cool December, in comparison to the rest of the season. That was the case in 2016-17 and 2022-23. It's January and February when it really torches. If December ends with <1 inch of snow, then the winter is in trouble. That's what happened at PHL, BWI, and DCA those winters. PHL got lucky with the March 2017 snowstorm, but the snow totals for those seasons are as follows: PHL: 0.3 inches 2022-23 BWI: 3.0 inches 2016-17, 0.2 inches 2022-23 DCA: 3.4 inches 2016-17, 0.4 inches 2022-23