PhiEaglesfan712

That one was an easy A in my book. I loved seeing the transformation from a near record cold and snowy February to a near record warm May.

I like April/May 2015 better than February/March 2018 as an analog for this March/April, especially if we're heading towards a stronger el nino/+PDO. The late spring months of 2015 turned warmer (with May being a near record warm month) after a very cold winter/early spring.

Sometimes, you have to use common sense and not rely on the models. How many times have you seen snow immediately following 80 degree days? I can't think of any. If I happen to be wrong, I will personally come back here and apologize to you all. However, I know it's not going to happen, so I'm done posting on this thread because it's really unnecessary. Good night to everyone.

It's more reasonable than those posting snow maps where DC and Virginia get 7+ inches. We all know it isn't going to happen, so why post it? That's the definition of trolling. I even looked back, and DC didn't even get 7 inches of snow during some of the historical March snowstorms, like 1958, 1993, and 2018.

I'm not trolling. I'm being realistic. It doesn't normally snow in DC or Virginia in mid-March, much less following 80-degree days. The sun angle is just too strong. You need something really special, like the Storm of the Century in 1993, for it to snow at this time of year. We don't have that right now.

Come on, you all know it really isn't going to snow this far south. This isn't New England. There is no cold air, the ground is too warm, and the sun angle is way too strong.

It has never happened before. May 1977 probably the closest you're going to get: 1977-05-06 84 57 70.5 9.9 0 6 0.47 0.0 0 1977-05-07 74 53 63.5 2.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 1977-05-08 64 39 51.5 -9.6 13 0 0.10 0.0 0 1977-05-09 44 36 40.0 -21.4 25 0 0.31 T 0

Snow can happen in March or April, but under the right conditions. We just don't have that right now. We have (1) a lack of cold air, (2) the ground is too warm, and (3) the sun angle is too high. We need temps in the 30s and 40s for a few weeks, and that probably isn't happening. Winter weather is just about over. Do not hold out hope for any snow.

We all know snow is not going to happen. (1) There isn't enough cold air, (2) the ground is way too warm, and (3) the sun angle is way too high.

I think this is more like 2015, just one month forward. February looks like it's going to be the last month of the cold pattern in the East, just as March 2015 was. I get the feeling that April will torch in the East, and finally see a cool down in the West, like May 2015. We never get a cold winter and cold spring in the same year anymore.

I think 2010 holds the record, and that was after a cold and snowy winter, like this one.

77 on 2/21/2018 and 74 on 2/24/2017. Earliest 80 was 3/8/2000. 82 was 3/9/2016. 83 today.

83 at PHL, breaks the old record of 82 in 2016, and is the earliest in the season that we've reached that temp.

Yeah, I passed by the Catskills on the way to (Saturday) and from (yesterday) Vermont. I didn't find much snow on the ground level. The snow was still there in Vermont, especially the further north I went (the furthest I went was Weston).

2009-10 is the only one of those seasons that was really el nino. 1993-94 and 2013-14 were ENSO neutrals, and 2020-21 was a deep moderate la nina. The 1983 and 2016 storms are the only ones that were in el nino. The 1993 storm was an ENSO neutral, and the 2021 one was in that deep moderate la nina of 20-21.

Yeah, it was March 29.

I checked the climate summary, and it looks like it was very cold leading up to the March 1888 snowstorm: 1888-03-01 40 28 34.0 -4.8 31 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-02 33 27 30.0 -9.0 35 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-03 37 15 26.0 -13.2 39 0 0.05 0.0 M 1888-03-04 24 12 18.0 -21.5 47 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-05 22 12 17.0 -22.7 48 0 0.01 0.3 M 1888-03-06 23 10 16.5 -23.5 48 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-07 30 17 23.5 -16.7 41 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-08 31 21 26.0 -14.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-09 40 23 31.5 -9.2 33 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-10 45 27 36.0 -5.0 29 0 0.00 0.0 M 1888-03-11 42 33 37.5 -3.7 27 0 0.65 0.0 M 1888-03-12 33 8 20.5 -21.0 44 0 1.45 16.5 10 1888-03-13 12 6 9.0 -32.8 56 0 0.00 3.0 M

Got down to 32 in this morning: 09 06:56 E 3 10.00 Fair CLR 33.1 28.9 85% 29.94 1014.0 09 05:56 SE 6 10.00 Fair CLR 32 30 92% 27 29.92 1013.5 09 04:56 SE 5 10.00 Fair CLR 32 28.9 88% 28 29.92 1013.1 09 03:56 SE 6 10.00 Fair CLR 33.1 28.9 85% 28 29.92 1013.1 09 02:56 SE 3 10.00 Fair CLR 32 28 85% 29.92 1013.2 I'm headed back home for some afternoon delight with temps in the 70s.

This is the Central Park in March 1994 leading up to the event: 1994-03-01 38 24 31.0 -7.8 34 0 0.00 0.0 2 1994-03-02 30 26 28.0 -11.0 37 0 0.40 4.0 2 1994-03-03 35 27 31.0 -8.2 34 0 0.62 1.0 7 1994-03-04 48 30 39.0 -0.5 26 0 0.00 0.0 7 1994-03-05 45 34 39.5 -0.2 25 0 0.00 0.0 5 1994-03-06 42 30 36.0 -4.0 29 0 T T 4 1994-03-07 50 33 41.5 1.3 23 0 0.00 0.0 4 1994-03-08 48 35 41.5 1.0 23 0 0.12 0.0 1 1994-03-09 36 30 33.0 -7.7 32 0 0.29 T T 1994-03-10 46 32 39.0 -2.0 26 0 1.62 0.0 T 1994-03-11 47 31 39.0 -2.2 26 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-12 46 26 36.0 -5.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-13 52 33 42.5 0.7 22 0 T 0.0 T 1994-03-14 54 41 47.5 5.4 17 0 0.00 0.0 T 1994-03-15 55 41 48.0 5.7 17 0 0.11 0.0 T 1994-03-16 45 24 34.5 -8.1 30 0 T T 0 1994-03-17 37 21 29.0 -13.9 36 0 0.02 0.3 T 1994-03-18 33 25 29.0 -14.2 36 0 0.26 2.8 0 Highs were in the 30s, 40s, and 50s in the lead-up to the snowstorm. That is nothing like we have this year. Highs are going to be in the 70s the next few days. Unless you live in New England, you are not getting a snowstorm from here on out. The ground is just too warm and the sun angle is too high.

Closer to the Philly are, but whether it be NYC or PHL, most of the snowstorms that happened after March 15 are in the middle or or immediately following a very cold period. Just look at 1956, 1958, or 2018, for example. This is not the case this year. Most of the area had 70+ highs today. That's not the weather that preceeds a 2nd half of March snowstorm. This isn't the New England region, where the sun angle as weaker and snow is a more common occurrence after March 15.

There's a difference between chilly and snowstorm. Temps in the 40s, probably. But if you're holding out hope for snow, it's probably not going to happen. Almost always, snow after March 15 is accompanied by cold before it. We don't have that now.

You might have to go to the Southern Hemisphere for it, lol.

Nope, nothing alike. The high temperature for the entire month of March 1958 was 54. We're at 72 on the 2 pm EDT observation. There isn't going to be a historic snowstorm around the vernal equinox.

A wild ride here in temperatures. Still very warm: 08 07:56 Vrbl 7 10.00 Mostly Cloudy FEW015 SCT042 BKN080 53.1 48.9 54 43 86% 29.64 1003.4 08 06:56 SW 8 G 17 10.00 Overcast SCT015 BKN023 OVC060 54 51.1 90% 29.63 1003.2 08 05:56 Vrbl 3 10.00 Overcast OVC015 53.1 51.1 93% 29.63 1002.9 08 04:56 Vrbl 7 G 21 10.00 Overcast OVC017 53.1 50 89% 29.63 1002.9

Vermont is more influenced by the mountains. But there has a been a wild temperature swing the last 12-18 hours. From 58 to 40 and now back up to 54 at 7 am. Still well above average for this time of year at that latitude, and quite a contrast from negative temperatures following the late January snowstorm.