PhiEaglesfan712

Definitely not a March 2018 redux. That was a record snowy March here at PHL, and quite frankly, I can't see that outcome happening again. At some point, I've got to think this string of cold months has to end at some point. Even in 2018, we had the very warm February that interrupted an otherwise cold and snowy winter pattern.

2023 just took too long to develop. By the time things turned cold, it was already May and June, and the snow season was over. We got our coldest June since 1985, and (tied with 3 other years) for 31st coldest June overall at PHL. To put into perspective how impressive that cold was, December 2025 was only the 48th coldest December, while January 2025 was the 46th coldest and January 2026 was the 59th coldest January in PHL.

Yeah, the last time we had record warmth in the West, at least the East had some historical cold. As cold as this winter has been in the East, it doesn't hold a candle to 13-14 and 14-15.

The odd thing about 2012 and 1977 is that both ended up producing record warm springs in most of the eastern half to two-thirds of the US.

Tinicum Twp is where the Airport is, and PHL had a low of 10 this morning. -12 (or 22 degrees colder) seems impossible, and it would be lower than PHL's lowest ever temperature, which was set in February 1934. I'd be willing to bet the low is somewhere in between both. 10 seems too high, -12 seems too low.

That statement isn't even correct. January 2010 wasn't below average temperaturewise, and both November 2009 and March 2010 were really warm. 2009-10 had historical snow, but it was done in a very short window, and wasn't really historically cold. After snowmageddon, the winter was pretty much over, and we had 90 degree temps in early April (years like 95-96, 02-03, and 13-14 - all wall-to-wall cold and snowy winters - it was still snowing at that point in the season).

Both had more intensity/longevity, and went on later. Based on 1981-2010 normals, January 2014 was -4.6, February 2014 -3.6, and March 2014 -4.6 departure (November 2013 was -2.1). January 2015 was -2, February 2015 -10, and March 2015 -4.4 (November 2014 was -2.4). December is the only month preventing 13-14 and 14-15 from having a wall-to-wall 5 months (November-March) below average.

I was a junior in high school, taking the SATs that morning. It snowed pretty much the whole day, as far as I can remember. That was the last time a clipper (turned Nor'easter) really produced. 2026 joins 2005 and 2016 in the Conference Championship weekend snowstorms. Mark one down for 2036 or 2037 next?

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

The 10-year snow drought is over: https://x.com/amarkowitzWX/status/2015592086276313584

Probably more muted. I highly doubt we see a record February warm, then a record snowy March, like we did in 2018. Both months will probably be much closer to normal, and I wouldn't be surprised if one actually had a +5 departure.

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon. The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

I moved my Vermont trip to March 7-9. We can be sure there won't be a snowstorm that weekend, right?

I'm skeptical of a super nino developing in 2026-27. They normally don't develop that strong on the first try. 2015-16 is a very good example. Some models were predicting a possible strong el nino as early as 2012-13. I think if there's a super el nino, it will more likely happen in 2027-28. If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I think it will be capped at a high end moderate, possibly low end strong. (We also cannot count out the possibility of a double-year el nino, peaking during the summer, like 1986-88.)

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

It was 21 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... we actually had that happen. Then, of course, the Eagles would go on to win the NFC Championship.

2005 2016

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

How does this compare to the winter of 2014-15?

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me.