PhiEaglesfan712

Don't forget about the Blizzard of 1993. I would put that at #2 in my lifetime, since I was born in 1988.

That happened this past winter. [Anyone that's a Patriots fan should be glad that the Bills did not beat the Broncos. If the Bills had won, the AFC Championship Game would have been played in that blizzard, and I don't think the Pats beat the Bills in those conditions. If anyone is equipped to play in those conditions, it's Josh Allen.]

What's even crazier is that not even 10 days after that snow, it was back to record highs and temps in the 80s/close to 90 in some spots to end the month.

Depends on your location, but for most of the area, it's either 2020 or 2022. (However, both years had very warm starts to November.)

Although that el nino collapsed very early in the second year and led into the very strong la nina of 1988-89. I suspect if we got a 2nd year el nino in 2027-28, something similar could happen and we could get a strong la nina in 2028-29 instead.

Definitely agree that we need to take the earlier seasons with a grain of salt because the technology wasn't as good. For 2005, we can say for certainty that the ACE value was between 245 and 250. [In 2024, I did a calculation on this season, and it came out to be 247.65, which is #1] 1933 has a wider variance, between 213 and 258. [In the same 2024 calculation, I got 235.785, which is #2]. I actually think the 258 value from NOAA is an overestimate. Here are the Top 11 ACE seasons from my 2024 calculations: 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 As for 1914, the mid-September storm was the biggest one for that season (that was almost Hurricane strength). I believe they did a reanalysis in 2005 (oddly enough, the most active season), and they couldn't find anything more. There might have been another one or two more storms, but I'm almost certain none were as big as the mid-September storm.

Will the Noreaster have an impact on my flight? I'm taking off from PHL at 8:05 pm on Saturday night, and headed for Italy.

1982-83 was a record breaking east based el nino that had a great back half of winter (February blizzard and mid-April snow/freeze event).

If the el nino continues to 2027-28, then we'll get a Part 2. Otherwise, the next ENSO thread will be about a la nina. The last 2 years didn't have a clear ENSO state, and we got to 260 and 307 pages. There won't be a new thread until the next season.

I think it was last year, we didn't have a TC from August 28-September 16. [The year before, we didn't have a TC from August 21-September 8.]

FWIW: The last 3 even years (2020, 2022, and 2024) all had record 75+ warmth (at PHL) in early November. All of these years had a +QBO. 2020-11-06 71 46 58.5 8.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-07 75 47 61.0 10.9 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-08 76 46 61.0 11.2 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-09 75 47 61.0 11.6 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-10 76 48 62.0 12.9 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-11-11 71 61 66.0 17.2 0 1 1.48 0.0 0 Nov 2020 QBO: +11.15 2022-11-01 74 58 66.0 13.8 0 1 0.13 0.0 0 2022-11-02 71 51 61.0 9.1 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-03 72 45 58.5 7.0 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-04 73 47 60.0 8.8 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-05 78 56 67.0 16.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-06 77 67 72.0 21.5 0 7 T 0.0 0 2022-11-07 79 56 67.5 17.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-10 70 43 56.5 7.4 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2022-11-11 72 57 64.5 15.7 0 0 0.44 0.0 0 2022-11-12 71 60 65.5 17.1 0 1 0.07 0.0 0 Nov 2022 QBO: +12.45 2024-11-01 81 57 69.0 16.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 2024-11-05 76 50 63.0 12.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-06 80 61 70.5 20.0 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-07 78 58 68.0 17.9 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-08 72 49 60.5 10.7 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-11-11 74 54 64.0 15.2 1 0 0.15 0.0 0 Nov 2024 QBO: +13.78

lol, lows in the 30s are not going to happen. I can see lows in the 50s, maybe even upper 40s, but no way are going to drop below 40. That hasn't happened in September in a very long time, and it would at or near record territory. Heck, we haven't even gone in the 30s in October in recent years. (The last time was Halloween weekend 2020.)

Aren't we still right near solar max (like 2002-03 and 2014-15, which were both great, el nino/+ENSO winters)?

Are you sure we had 11 90-degree days in August last year? I remember the summer suddenly ending after 7/31. I think that should be a one, not 11.

This is 3 years in a row now that we've had this in what is supposed to be the peak of the hurricane season. The last 2 years we had no storms from about mid-August to mid-September. 2023 was the last time we had activity at the peak of the season.

September 17, 1914: A tropical storm made landfall near the Florida-Georgia state border with estimated sustained winds of 70 mph. While it may seem insignificant, this storm is notable for being the only officially-recognized Atlantic tropical cyclone of 1914.

I'm not sure if anyone posted the RONI and ONI values, but for JJA: RONI: +1.4 ONI: +1.8

It should be the sixth very strong el nino since 1950. I'm not sure why they didn't put 1972-73 as a VSE, considering it has 3 consecutive +2.0 trimonthlies.

Yep, I was up there Saturday and Sunday, and it was cool and crisp. Looks like all sub-75 days except for one outlier.

A warm winter is okay. At least it's warm enough to do outdoor activity. The most boring winter is the one that is too cold to go outside, but too warm for snow. Think 2018-19 or 2024-25. No one really wants those. If it's not going to be a good snowy winter, might as well go all out torch, like 2011-12, 2019-20, 2022-23, or 2023-24.

I'm here in Cambridge (Assembly Row) for the weekend, and it feels like fall (cool and crisp). High might not even reach 70 today. The high at Logan Airport might be barely over 70.

1972-73 should be included as well. That was a -PDO, and was pretty much snowless at PHL.

Yeah, if Emily didn't get retired (and that was a C5), I highly doubt they are going to retire Edouard.

Do we now have a relative and a traditional PDO now (like we do with the ONI)? This one shows July as -2.14 and August as -1.84: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat