PhiEaglesfan712
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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712
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Don't you mean April? And I think these temperatures are severely underestimated. This April looks like it's going to be near record warm.
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It's amazing how quickly a pattern can change. Not even 6 weeks earlier, we were wrapping up a very cold and snowy February. Almost like what we have this year.
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This can't be. Pinger season has been done for 2 months now.
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1.5, even if not strong, is still notable. In the last 77 years, we've only had 10 events that cleared 1.5 on both the ONI and RONI (only 4 of these, in bold, cleared 2.0 on both - the threshold for super): 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-88 (this was a double year el nino, which unlike the others, peaked in the summer of 1987) 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24
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That April 1982 snowstorm showed just what could have been. If not for a long lull in February and March, 1981-82 could have been a historic snow season. But the April storm was a nice reminder of that cold and snowy pattern in January 1982.
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Global temperatures seem to bottom out around 1917 (following a super la nina), at about -0.2 lower than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial mean. If we use 1917 as the zero point, 1.5C would have been first breached in 2016, and the global temperature anomaly for 2024 would be at +1.8C. -
I believe it was 1997. I remember Easter Sunday, March 30, being warm. Then, it snowed on Monday (3/31) and Tuesday (4/1). 1997-03-30 68 54 61.0 12.8 4 0 T 0.0 0 1997-03-31 58 31 44.5 -4.1 20 0 0.66 2.3 0 1997-04-01 52 33 42.5 -6.5 22 0 0.06 1.6 3
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
JFM 2026 RONI -0.7 JFM 2026 ONI -0.2 -
I'm hoping that UCLA wins the Women's National Championship. This program last won a National Championship in 1978, before the Women's Tournament existed. Plus, Lauren Betts and the seniors deserve to end their careers with a title.
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We did get close on May 9, 2020, and that was following a very warm and virtually snowless winter: 2020-05-09 49 34 41.5 -16.9 23 0 0.03 T
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
It's been like this since about March 8, a coast-to-coast torch. -
2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The only time we got wet was the Nor'easter in the closing days of April, which brought a lot of rain the weekend of the 28th-30th. Other than that, late winter and spring 2023 was dry, with May being the driest on record. Late June and early July is when it got wet. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Something weird is going on. I haven't seen this many temperature swings like this year. 20 degrees is normal, but there have been many 30, 40, and even one 50-degree swing so far. That isn't normal. I really hope this doesn't continue into the summer. I don't want it to be 100 degrees one day, and then 60 the next, in June or July. If I wanted this type of weather, I would move to Nebraska. -
E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
Where? Vermont? NH? Maine? Because there isn't any snow happening anywhere near here. -
All these torches since early March have hit, though.
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The last time they changed location was late 1930s/early 1940s, I think. Before that, it was in Center City. The EURO shows sustained warmth coast-to-coast (see @bluewave's post in page 2). We've been in that pattern since early March.
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If that happens, and the heat dome is centered somewhere around Death Valley, the American/global temperature record of 134 degrees could finally fall.
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There hasn't been plenty cold aloft since at least early March. I was in Vermont for 3 days (March 7-9), and it was 55+ each day. I knew winter was essentially over at that point. And that's okay, as sometimes, the coolest winters end abruptly. Look at 2010 (after February) and 2015 (after March), for example. 2010 had (at the time, it was broken only 2 years later) the warmest spring on record, and 2015 had a near record warm May. The Euro is also showing a torch pattern mid-month, coast-to-coast.
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PHL was 84. RECORD EVENT REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ0530 PM EDT WED APR 01 2026...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84 DEGREES WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 81 DEGREES SET, WHICH WAS FIRST SET IN 1917 AND TIED AGAIN IN 1978.TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE PHILADELPHIA AREA DATE BACK TO DECEMBER OF 1873.
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I wouldn't be too sure. After the 1997-98 event, a double-year strong la nina followed. -
In case you haven't gotten it by now, winter is over: https://x.com/epawawx/status/2038305484810092870
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Then, there was a huge rainstorm the weekend after (which would have been a snowstorm if it happened earlier in the season). This does not look accurate. 2025 should be there, not 2023. Plus, some of those months, off memory, I can tell you should have negative temperature departures.
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What in the Mid-Atlantic forum is this?
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2026-2027 El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, they prematurely overhyped the el nino. But by the time you got to 14-15, you just knew whenever the el nino developed, it was going to be historic. The el nino was building up for 3-4 years at that time. I'd even argue that 2024-25 was a la nina bust, as well. That one was predicted early on to be a strong la nina, but ended up as a disjointed 2-year la nina.
