PhiEaglesfan712

If I were running the team, I would trade Jalen Carter as soon as possible, hopefully get a lot of picks out of it, and let someone else pay him in the offseason (and be their problem). We should have kept CJGJ instead. The difference between CJGJ and Carter is that CJGJ knows where the line is, and doesn't cross it. Can't say that about Carter.

If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.

It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging: JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2 JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46 August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12) If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate. If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)

I guess this means the upcoming winter is cooked and torched. I had a below 161 ACE before the season even begun, and it was pretty apparent by mid-June. The better question now is if we're even going to hit half of 161 ACE.

The big difference is in 1+2. Last year was never going to behave like a la nina with that east-based el nino.

Looks like a Greenland block in October:

Yeah, it's about time to face the music and accept that this season may be a below average activity hurricane season. Keep in mind, we're at the point when Felix hit. No major storms formed after that point that year, and that was a strong la nina. A one-storm wonder season is not even unprecedented. Andrew hit in August, like Erin, and there wasn't another major storm the rest of the season.

Then, by this logic, summer began on March 29 this year.

Technically, it was 2023, if we go strictly by JJA. However, September was warmer than June in 2023, so JAS 2023 would have taken us above the 1981-2010 JJA average.

As I said, watch there be 100-degree heat at this time next year. It hasn't happened since 1953, and we are way overdue for this. Fall set in early last year as well. It can't possibly happen 3 years in a row. It's been here for a while. The pattern changed around August 1. Aside from the heatwave from about the 12th-17th, it's been fall-like for the most part. Summer is likely not coming back until next year, unless we get that odd temperature spike (like Oct. 2, 2019).

High 75 at O'Hare yesterday. I'll be leaving Chicago shortly.

If there is a la nina, then hope for something weak (like 17-18). A moderate la nina is not going to be favorable for the winter (like 11-12 and 22-23).

With meteorological summer coming to an end, it is now time to start a discussion for fall.

The summer pretty much ended on August 17 in NYC this year. The pattern started to turn cooler around August 1. If not for the August 12-17 heatwave, summer would have pretty much ended on July 31.But knowing that the heat has been absent the last 2 years at this time of year (during the US Open), I'm willing to bet we are due for record heat at this time next year. After all, NYC hasn't reached 100 degrees during this time of year since 1953. NYC is way overdue for one.

High yesterday was 74 at O'Hare. I got to enjoy The Lumineers concert at Soldier Field. Today will be my last day in Chicago.

High yesterday at O'Hare was 70. Perfect weather in the morning, but a few sprinkles in the evening. Finishing up my donuts from the tour yesterday.

The pattern really started in 2016-17. That was the year places like Baltimore and DC had like 3 inches of snow. That started their record low 7-year stretch, which lasted until 2022-23. The last two winters, Baltimore and DC got some snow, and those places bounced of those lows. I wonder if the same thing does happen to NYC and Boston.

Perhaps the real difference between this year and last year is Nino 1+2. Last year, we had moderate, borderline strong el nino conditions in 1+2, a continuation of an el nino in that region from the 2023-24 el nino. This is why I don't consider last year to be an el nino. I consider it to be ENSO neutral, and even then, it's not a traditional ENSO neutral. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is very rare. Recent readings of Nino 1+2 is near 0, showing that the el nino that started in mid-2023 in the region has dissipated. So if we do get la nina conditions this year, it would be a true la nina, unlike last year.

High yesterday at O'Hare was 77. The high may not reach 70 today. I'm on vacation doing the underground donut tour at Fulton Market. Couldn't ask for better weather for it.

If we're going to dip into la nina in 2025-26, then 1949-50 is probably the best analog you're going to do here. I know that was 75+ years ago, but there aren't many years that go from ENSO neutral to a la nina. Plus, you had a strong -PDO and elevated solar (although it was declining by that point). 2020-21 would be the next best match, but that was coming off a borderline weak el nino, and we were still near a solar min. And while we had a -PDO, it wasn't as strong as 1949-50 and now.

You never know, though. 2007 was a strong la nina, and had Felix at around this time (the second big storm, after Dean). You'd almost be certain that another major hurricane was going to happen the rest of the way. But it didn't happen. 1992 was a one-storm wonder. 2007 was a two-storm wonder. I think we're headed for this type of year, rather than a 2005 or 2020. Not every hurricane season is going to be active.

With Beryl, we were still in early July, and had a lot of hurricane season left. We're now at about the time of the season of Andrew and Felix, in 1992 and 2007, respectively. I'm pretty sure people thought there would be more major hurricanes after that point, especially after Felix in 2007 with a developing strong la nina. Point is, you just never know. Yes, there will be more storms, but as we saw in 1992 and 2007, it's very possible that none of them are major.

The problem with that is many of those seasons were active early, or at least showed signs. 2022 and 2015 are the only one's you could make an argument against, and even those had activity in early September. If the first half of September is not active, then chances are, it just isn't meant to be this year. And that's okay, not every hurricane season is going to be active. Look at 1992 after Andrew, nothing happened in the first half of September, and the rest of the season didn't have a major storm (just 2 Category 2's, in Bonnie and Charley in late September, but nothing close to being as big as Andrew). Erin is almost certainly going to be the big event of the season. It's possible we get a second big storm (like we did in 2007 with Felix), but we're not going to churn out major storm after major storm like in 2005.

PHL June 75.4 (+2.2 1981-2020; +1.9 1991-2020) July 81.9 (+3.8 1981-2020; +3.2 1991-2020) August so far is 76.0 (-1.2 on the 1991-2020 average). It looks like we'll end the month with 23 below average days, 7 above average days, and one on the average. Very good chance we finish with our coldest August since 2014, and an outside chance (if we fall below 74.6) the coldest since 2000.

This summer's heat, at its peak in late June and July, was intense. However, outside of that, during the first 2/3 of June and most of August (outside of the heatwave on the 12th-17th) was well cooler than average.