PhiEaglesfan712

If we get this, then the Nino 1+2 is going to be somewhere near +3 for 2025-26. We'd get the warmest year on record for 2026, but we'd correct to a strong la nina in 2026-27 (like in 2009-10 -> 2010-11).

I think ENSO neutral is most likely for 2025-26, though I could see a weak la nina or weak el nino. If we get a non-neutral ENSO state in 2025-26, I get the feeling we'll get a sharp correction and a strong ENSO state in the opposite direction in 2026-27 (see 2006-07 -> 2007-08 and 2022-23 -> 2023-24).

Like this doesn't make any sense. Winter 2020 was a snowless winter. It was pretty much done and over with by the beginning of February. If 2020 is the analog for March, then the winter is done: 2020-03-01 45 25 35.0 -4.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-02 63 30 46.5 7.1 18 0 0.04 0.0 0 2020-03-03 60 41 50.5 10.9 14 0 0.12 0.0 0 2020-03-04 59 43 51.0 11.1 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-05 53 38 45.5 5.3 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-06 45 33 39.0 -1.4 26 0 0.35 0.0 0 2020-03-07 47 35 41.0 0.3 24 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-08 60 30 45.0 4.0 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-09 71 39 55.0 13.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-10 68 48 58.0 16.4 7 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-11 59 43 51.0 9.1 14 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-12 60 40 50.0 7.8 15 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-13 74 49 61.5 19.0 3 0 0.37 0.0 0 2020-03-14 58 43 50.5 7.7 14 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-15 55 40 47.5 4.4 17 0 0.01 0.0 0 2020-03-16 52 36 44.0 0.6 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-17 57 41 49.0 5.3 16 0 0.03 0.0 0 2020-03-18 59 40 49.5 5.5 15 0 0.08 0.0 0 2020-03-19 56 43 49.5 5.2 15 0 0.93 0.0 0 2020-03-20 79 49 64.0 19.3 1 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-21 67 41 54.0 9.0 11 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-22 47 35 41.0 -4.4 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-23 45 38 41.5 -4.2 23 0 0.80 0.0 0 2020-03-24 58 39 48.5 2.5 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-25 49 41 45.0 -1.4 20 0 0.01 0.0 0 2020-03-26 59 35 47.0 0.2 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2020-03-27 69 49 59.0 11.9 6 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-28 54 47 50.5 3.0 14 0 1.14 0.0 0 2020-03-29 53 47 50.0 2.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2020-03-30 60 45 52.5 4.3 12 0 0.06 0.0 0 2020-03-31 48 41 44.5 -4.1 20 0 T 0.0 0

The ground was muddy at the parade a week and a half ago. A sign that the drought is beginning to ease. This is later than what we want, but at least the drought isn't going on for months on end like in 2002.

Thing is, the WPAC and the EPAC are so disjointed now. If any type of el nino forms in WPAC, even a weak one, the EPAC is almost certainly going to be in a strong el nino state. For us to have a weak el nino, the WPAC probably has to be near ENSO neutral.

Yeah, the last major snowstorm I remember was in January 2016. We've had some hits from time to time, but we haven't had that Big One in almost a decade now.

We already have a neutral this year. Not in the conventional sense (like our last one in 2013-14), but we had a late developing la nina in the WPAC and an el nino in the EPAC.

That was pretty apparent at the beginning of the month. I was there on the Feb. 1-2 weekend, and we got down to 9F overnight. I knew Boston was in for a cool month.

Exactly, it would be like re-living the epic March 2001 snow bust. I'd rather the rug be pulled now, not the day of. That was the worst feeling in the world. I was in 7th grade when that snow bust happened, and it really messed me up the rest of that school year.

I think it's 30 years (right now, it's the 1991-2020 normals). That's at least what we use for average temperatures. Some time in 2031, it will become the 2001-2030 normals.

If you're talking about an el nino, then we're at least 2-3 years out. The ENSO is pretty similar to this point in 2022, where we had a late/in-between season la nina peak.

Yeah, assuming February stays below average temperaturewise, when was the last time we got 4 straight below average temperature months? You can bet your bottom dollar that March is going to be warmer than average.

We're not getting an el nino next winter. We have a late peaking la nina that is at or below -1C on the MEI and RONI, like we were in 2022. The la nina will continue into next winter. El nino will need to wait until 2026-27, if not 2027-28.

I think this one is different. The weather app on my iPhone has said double-digit inches of snow at PHL for days now. That hasn't happened for any of the other storms this year. I think a major snow event is a sure thing.

I'm not sure about 1960-61, but 1966-67 is easy to explain. That was a classic example of a neutral year taking the shape of the previous ENSO state. 1966-67 behaved like an el nino, as the previous year was a strong el nino. 1992-93 was very similar to this.

FWIW, I had February 2001 as my top analog for this February. Outside of the December 30, 2000 snowstorm, this winter has behaved almost similarly to that one in our area, in regards to temps/precip/snowfall. The winter of 2000-01, if I remember correctly, had that la nina mismatch.

I'll take my chances at a coastal hugger. I wouldn't mind a Jan 28-29, 2022 type storm.

If this pans out, we might rival winter temp departures of 2013-14 and 2014-15 in some places in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.

Let's play a hypothetical: What if the Eagles had drafted AJ Brown in round 1 and CJGJ in round 2 of the 2019 NFL Draft (instead of Dillard and JJAW)? How does that change the Doug Pederson/Carson Wentz era? Are either still here? Do they still draft Jalen Hurts?

It depends where you live. North and west, 2020-21 was the better winter. South and east, 2021-22 was the better winter. However, both only really had one good month (February in 2021 and January in 2022). We haven't really had a good wall-to-wall winter like 2013-14 and 2014-15, and there hasn't been a major snowstorm in the entire viewing area since January 23, 2016.

This would be the first below average winter since 2014-15.

February 20-21 looks promising:

Eagles win the Super Bowl, we're getting a lot of snow the next 3 days, and a parade on Friday. Not sure anyone else has it any better.