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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    2010 and 2011 are the ultimate regress to the mean seasons. Both years had so much snow in little time, but ended rather abruptly. Late spring/early summer absolutely torched during those years, and many all-time hot records were broken during those two years (2012 as well, but that winter never really happened that year, outside of a freak late October snowstorm).
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see a possible event on the 24th/25th. If that doesn't hit, then it's probably lights out for the winter. The first half of March looks very warm.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we get a strong el nino, the summer leading into the el nino will be warm in the Western US, and the summer exiting the el nino will be warm in the Eastern US. The only time that was flipped was the 1991-92 el nino, but that was due to Pinatubo. If the el nino ends in early 2028, then that might meaning cooler (more comfortable) weather for the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    The February 2017 event was a very sharp cutoff. Those south of Philly got next to nothing. Almost like the 2013 storm. The March 14, 2017 event was more widespread. Upstate New York added to one of their most snowy seasons on record, while it saved the season for Philly, and even Baltimore/DC cashed in for a few months (though they still ended up with ~3 inches of snow for the whole season).
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    Even if that were to happen, with how cold a February we have, we'd need to have like a -7 March, and a -10 April, which would put us at record cold levels. I'm guessing the cold has peaked, and the temperature anomalies will revert towards the mean, and we'll have a warmer than normal spring. Seems to always be that way after colder winters, like 2010, 2011, and 2015.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I thought people learned that in 2015, when April was warm, and May torched. Are people saying that March is going to be colder than February, and April is going to be colder than March again? The schools must be failing the children because I learned this in grade school. For those who don't know, here's the general rule (for the Northern Hemisphere): The sun gets higher from about early January to early June, stays about steady (at the maximum) for a few weeks in June, then the sun goes lower from late June to early December, and stays about steady (at the minimum) from early December to early January. (In the southern hemisphere, this is reversed.)
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    You even have to know that the cold is on borrowed time. Over time, the law of averages say that things eventually return to the mean. Our recent cold winters (like 2010, 2011, and 2015) all had very warm spring months. I'm looking to the first week of March. I see warmth and 60-degree days coming.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think 1988, 1999, and 2007 should be anti-logs (possibly also 2025). 1988 is the worst possible analog, as that was coming off a double-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer (of 1987), and the PDO was flipping from + to -.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Greenland blocking is usually warm East/cold West in March. I thought it was some time in late April or May that it flips.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    That's more May/June, but definitely not March. Blocking in Greenland is warm East/cold West in March (see 2012) and most of April.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not on the short term, but definitely on the long term. February is still going to end up below average, but I expect things to be closer to average (and probably on the warm side) in March, and well above average in April.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Enjoy the cold while it last because it will pretty much be done when February is over. March will start out warm, with at least one 60+ degree day in the first week of the month.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    Most of the rest of February looks good, if you're looking for cold air. The MJO is going to stay in Phase 3 from about 2/13 to 2/23. Around 3/1 (give or take a few days), the pattern flips warmer. I'll be shock if we don't get a temperature in the 60s during the first week of March.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    That's my thinking for April. We're in for a Top 10 warmest April, with lots of 75, 80 degree days.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    More like a sleet/ice storm, but I'm not thinking too warm. However, I do think a 65+ high is highly likely during the first week to 10 days of March.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't think March will be an all-out torch. I think it's above average, but around +1 or +2 departure. I see April being the torch month.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's only February 8. I never said the cold would just suddenly disappear. Weather doesn't work on the flip of the switch. I said the colder than average weather would be coming to an end in the final days of February or the first days of March. That's still ~3 weeks from now. There is still time to enjoy the cold weather. I'm not so sure you'll get that opportunity next month. Besides, long and harsh winters aren't anything new. We've had such winters as recently 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, and 2014-15. All but the 2013-14 one produced some very warm spring months.
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see it ending during the final days of February or the first days of March. After that, there will be a pattern change:
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    Don't listen to them. When people say that the cold will never end, you know the opposite is going to happen, and cold pattern is nearing this end. Look at what happened when people on AccuWeather, in early March 2015, were saying that April and May 2015 will be colder. April ended up above average, and May was at or near record warmth. Expect March to finish with above average temperatures, and April to be a Top 10 warmest month. The only way for the cold pattern to continue is if the sun is replaced with a smaller star. (Not going to happen.)
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    I have October and November as NN, December and January BN. September is the most recent month AN.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    It looks like we're going to be in phase 5 to end February and phase 6 to begin March. Odds favor a warm March, and probably a warm April. If there is going to be a cold and rainy month in the spring, it will be May.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    The further time goes on, the more likely of warmer conditions in the East. A lot of the recent cold winters (2010, 2011, and 2015 are perfect examples) have had very warm spring months.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is how I see March playing out:
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Here's the April 2015 temperature anomoly: This map doesn't look much different than those March 2026 Euro maps.
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