PhiEaglesfan712

A shame how the 2001 season ended. The March snow bust really drags that year down because that's the lasting moment everyone remembers from that winter. If the snow bust happened on December 30 (2000) and the major storm happened in early March 2001, no one would care about the snow bust, and everyone would be talking about how 2001 was a decent winter.

We don't even need to go back that far to get a mean monthly temp of 25. That happened in February 2015, part of a 3-month period (January-March 2015) that was the coldest post-1980.

As I've said all along, 80 and sunny doesn't seem so bad after all.

We also had 25 mean temp in Dec 1989, but then we had 40-41 mean temps in Jan and Feb (1990), and 46 mean temp in March.

Great wall-to-wall winter, actually. Technically, 17-18 and 20-21 also had above average December snowfall.

Never said that about December. I've said these type of years tend to have cool Decembers in the East, but very warm Januarys and Februarys. The beginning of January may be cold, but I can pretty much guarantee you that we won't go all the way through the month cold. That doesn't happen anymore, let alone in a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Even in January 2018, the pattern flipped warmer in the East during the 2nd half of the month.

Problem is this is still a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD winter. Those types of winters don't cold all the way through December and January, unless you have a relaxed Pacific Jet (like 2010-11), and we don't have that this year. If it was a +ENSO/+PDO (like 2014-15), I'd be easily predicting a cold and snowy January. I think January will turn warm, at least be a near normal, or even above average temperature departure.

Didn't we get the Boxing Day snowstorm in 2010-11? I thought the saying was November... December is already part of winter.

If we don't get one by January 19, then we're going to have to wait a long time for the next snowstorm. I get the feeling we're going to see above average temperatures by the time we hit mid-January. -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years don't go all the way through December and January cold. That's something that happens in a +ENSO or +PDO winter.

I can't wait for days when it's 80 and sunny out. March 29 was easily the best weather day of this year.

NYC has not had a 4" snowfall since the January 28-29, 2022 snowstorm.

Thing is, 2010-11 had a very relaxed Pacific jet (we haven't had that since 2013-15). That's why December and January went all the way through cold. And the west wasn't really that warm in 10-11 (like we had in 13-14 and 14-15). Without a relaxed Pacific jet, I expect things to torch at some point in January. Coldest case scenario is January 2018, which was near normal. February is going to torch. (Sorry for those who love cold, but that's how -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD years tend to work. You just have to hope that winter returns in March. That did happen in 2017 and 2018, and even to a lesser extent, the last week of March 2011.)

lol, this obs is way too cold. I can't wait to see obs posts like this again: "Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am." "77F Trash cans went dancing" "Am actually sitting at 82 at post time." "81F With the clouds, low DP, breeze...not bad at all out there." "80F" "Had a couple raindrops then a pretty cool sunset. Maybe some showers late tonight / early morning? 74F/ breezy" "We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM"

Temperature departures like this is something you see in a +ENSO or +PDO season, not a -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. There is definitely going to be a pattern change in January. At a minimum, either the Western US will turn cold or the Eastern US will turn warm.

That has no correlation. NYC cashing in on a snowstorm doesn't mean everyone is going to win come January. For all we know, DC could end up with a final season snow total of 3-4" (see below). That season had one of the oddest snow distributions ever. Places in upstate NY finished the season with over 150 inches of snow, while places like Baltimore and DC finished with less than 4 inches of snow.

Sometimes, the models get it right. The best forecast this year was from the Euro (and just about every other model than the GFS) locking in the March 29 warming event 4-5 days out. (The GFS showed temperatures in the 30s instead.)

Just like a weather pattern, these things can really turn on a dime. I thought gold and silver still had a lot of room to grow in summer 2011, but that was the peak, and the price went down for years. (Thank goodness I didn't buy.)

I'm down for days like March 29, 2025, when it was 80 and sunny.

I don't think so. That was the day my brother and sister-in-law got married. I remember it being 70 and sunny in the morning, maybe a little breezy and cloudy in the afternoon during the ceremony, but no tornado.

This map is very reminiscent of fall/winter 2010-11. Of course, we had a very relaxed Pacific jet that year, which explains why we went cold in the East all the way through December and January, despite their being a deep -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. Even when things moderated out in February and March 2011, those months weren't particularly that much warmer than average. (We eventually got the warmth that year, from April-July.) We don't have a relaxed Pacific jet this year (at least I don't think), so I'd be shocked if went cold all of January. I expect a reversion to the mean, and a torch to start at some point in January, continuing into February.

Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow.

They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it. Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area.

It looks like we go warm by the 2nd week of January, which makes sense, considering we haven't had a December and January go all the way cold since 2010-11:

March 29, 2025 (5 days out): December 26, 2025 (4.75 days out):

What about the 12/26/2010 snowstorm?