PhiEaglesfan712

The record for the snowiest winter in Levittown is still 1957-58, correct?

The 10-year snow drought is over: https://x.com/amarkowitzWX/status/2015592086276313584

Probably more muted. I highly doubt we see a record February warm, then a record snowy March, like we did in 2018. Both months will probably be much closer to normal, and I wouldn't be surprised if one actually had a +5 departure.

The HECS was in March 1958. This followed another HECS on Valentine's Day that year. 1957-58 was that era's snowmageddon. In many places, it still holds the record for the snowiest season on record. That was a strong el nino year, like 2009-10, which produced the snowmageddon. The crazy thing about 2009-10 is how quickly that winter wrapped up after the snowmageddon event. It legit felt like summer during the first week of April that year.

What does warmer years mean? Post-1997? Post-2015?

I moved my Vermont trip to March 7-9. We can be sure there won't be a snowstorm that weekend, right?

I'm skeptical of a super nino developing in 2026-27. They normally don't develop that strong on the first try. 2015-16 is a very good example. Some models were predicting a possible strong el nino as early as 2012-13. I think if there's a super el nino, it will more likely happen in 2027-28. If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I think it will be capped at a high end moderate, possibly low end strong. (We also cannot count out the possibility of a double-year el nino, peaking during the summer, like 1986-88.)

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

2016 was 10 years ago, not 5. Although, it does feel like it just happened.

It was 21 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... we actually had that happen. Then, of course, the Eagles would go on to win the NFC Championship.

2005 2016

Now, if we can get the PDO to flip to positive, we could get a 2014-15 redux.

How does this compare to the winter of 2014-15?

This would be almost like the January 2022 storm. I'll gladly take this and run.

I am fine with a 6-8 inch snowstorm. I've done that plenty of times, and we got that as recently as 2021 and 2022. I just don't want a 18-24 inch snowstorm. It's been 10 years since that happened, and quite frankly, I don't know if I have the infrastructure to deal with a storm that big.

I'm hoping for a miss (I'm going up to Vermont on Sunday), so this would be great news for me.

I'm hoping for a March 2001 situation. I have to travel to Vermont on Sunday. If I had known this wasn't going to be a canonical frontloaded la nina (thanks @snowman19), I would have booked the March 7-8 weekend.

Please keep the storm south. I have to travel up north to Vermont on Sunday. I'd much rather it hit North Carolina. My nephews (4, 3 on Sunday, and 5.5 months) have probably never seen a snowstorm before, and they'd probably welcome it. I've seen my fair share of snowstorms, and don't really need it right now.

The 2 in Feb 2012 has to be a mistake. I don't ever remember it getting anywhere near that cold at any point during that winter.

2005 2016

I'm still very skeptical of this. 2003, 2010, and 2016 were all part of el nino events. Pretty much all the big events came either during an el nino and/or a +PDO. Even 1996, which was a la nina, had a +PDO. We currently have a -PDO and a slight -ENSO. If we get a huge event, it would be unprecedented given the PDO/ENSO state.

Very intersting. Here are the strong ENSO years. El Nino 1957-58 1965-66 1972-73 1982-83 1986-87/1987-88 1991-92 1997-98 2009-10 2015-16 2023-24 La Nina 1955-56 1973-74 1975-76 1988-89 1998-99 1999-2000 2007-08 2010-11 Which of these years did the PNA not hold?