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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Euro shows a COD.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    Thanks for the idea @JTA66
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Before the season, I called for a BN December (verified), but AN January and February (bust). When I saw the late season was not going to verify, I revised the forecast to BN February (looks better), AN March and April (TBD). AN March seems like a lock if the MJO to phase 6 to begin March verifies.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    NYC Feb 2015: 23.9 -12.0 Mar 2015: 38.1 -4.7 Apr 2015: 54.3 +0.6 May 2015: 68.5 +5.3
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    Those are exactly my thoughts for the rest of the month, though I'm not sure if it rains 2/19-20. It does turn warm to begin March (with us entering MJO Phase 6), and we should get our first 60+ during the first week of March.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    Historical snow seasons have ended early. 2009-10 in Baltimore or DC is a perfect example. Baltimore had 80 inches of snow at this point in 2010 following Snowmageddon, and it didn't really snow again after that. [In fact, it reached 90 during the first week of April.] For NYC, that was 2010-11. It didn't stop snowing, but there was a huge drop off after January. Only 5.8 inches of snow fell after January (with only 4.2 inches after this point).
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    I do have to agree with @NEG NAO's maps of late February. I think there is a small window of opportunity for cold (and maybe a snowstorm) in the final week of February, but this will be like threading the needle. However, it is not going to last, as the MJO is heading towards phase 6 in the last days of February or the first days of March. That's the worst phase for cold and snow. Those hoping for a 3rd act 4/7/2003 snowstorm, I just don't see it in the cards this spring.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    That's roughly the short window of opportunity, if there is going to be any snow remaining in this season. Once you get back, we're going to be in MJO Phase 6, and that will be all she wrote for this winter.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    I did hint, after a very warm March and April, that May could be a cooler to average temperaturewise and rainy month.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    All those were historical winters: 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 0.0 0.0 51.4 2010-2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 0.0 0.0 61.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.3
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Also March is going to start out in MJO Phase 6. Good luck trying to get a cold/snowy pattern out of that.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    3/2-3/8 and 3/9-3/15 being AN shouldn't really be a surprise. The MJO is going to be in phase 6 to begin March, which is normally a torch phase for early March.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    That snow event on May 9 showed the wasted potential of 1977. That could have been an all-time season if March and April didn't torch. As it stands, 1976-77 was a record cold fall and winter.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    The first half to 2/3 were warm, with 60s and 70s in the middle of the month. That last week to 10 days were a return to winter, so the month ended NN. April-July 2011 was an absolute torch, culminating with all-time record highs on 7/22.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    Same with me, and yes, March was below average temperaturewise, a continuation of a historically cold February (almost like how this February BN is a continuation of January). But as we know, things even out over time, and May 2015 was near record warm. I'm seeing the same progression here. We don't go months on end BN, like we did in 95-96, with no really good reason.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    I know you all don't want to hear it, but remember 2010, 2011, and 2015? Those were some of our recent BN winters. What do they all have in common? Warm spring months. Don't be surprised if March or April is well above average. It's perfectly normal. Things even out over time. It's called regression to the mean. It can work in reverse, too. 2020 and 2023 were very warm and snowless winters, but ended up with cold late springs/early summers. April and May 2020 were BN, while May and June 2023 were BN.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    It seems obvious that the winter is coming to an end faster than anyone wants to admit. The best chance for snow and cold is the next 2 weeks. Once we get to March, I don't see any sustained BN until at least May.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    It was 20 years ago today (Sgt. Pepper taught the band to play)... the February 2006 snowstorm:
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    If the detail about the cold source being minimal is true, especially after the cold streak that just happened, then the winter is just about over. The beginning of March is going to really torch, and by the time we get below average temperatures again (if we even do), it will be too late for snow.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    This happened, maybe even worse, in March 2001. This is the all-time bad beat:
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    This really isn't a frontloaded winter. Our biggest storm was on January 25, and our coldest air of the season went into February. When I think of a frontloaded winter, the cold and snow comes in November and December, and the worst is out by January 15 at the latest. 1989-90 is one that comes to mind.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    2010 and 2011 are the ultimate regress to the mean seasons. Both years had so much snow in little time, but ended rather abruptly. Late spring/early summer absolutely torched during those years, and many all-time hot records were broken during those two years (2012 as well, but that winter never really happened that year, outside of a freak late October snowstorm).
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    I see a possible event on the 24th/25th. If that doesn't hit, then it's probably lights out for the winter. The first half of March looks very warm.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we get a strong el nino, the summer leading into the el nino will be warm in the Western US, and the summer exiting the el nino will be warm in the Eastern US. The only time that was flipped was the 1991-92 el nino, but that was due to Pinatubo. If the el nino ends in early 2028, then that might meaning cooler (more comfortable) weather for the 2028 Summer Olympics in LA.
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    The February 2017 event was a very sharp cutoff. Those south of Philly got next to nothing. Almost like the 2013 storm. The March 14, 2017 event was more widespread. Upstate New York added to one of their most snowy seasons on record, while it saved the season for Philly, and even Baltimore/DC cashed in for a few months (though they still ended up with ~3 inches of snow for the whole season).
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