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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, we got a record warm October, then the mudstorm happened the last weekend of the month. If not for the mudstorm, we probably would have had a drought during the 2007-08 winter. Of course, November and December were cooler than average. Then, January-April were above average, but nothing really out of the ordinary.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    More likely 2026-27 or even 2027-28. El ninos don't form that quickly. Remember, they were hyping up an el nino in 2012-13, but it didn't form until 2014-15.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    Imagine the cold and snow in the winter following this modoki el nino: I don't think this will happen next summer (as CanSIPS is showing), but I think something like this could form a year or two down the road (in 2026-27 or 2027-28). We'd probably be in +PDO and -AMO. The blob in the North Pacific looks eerily similar to 2013-14 and 2014-15.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    Of course, 1957-58 is one of those rare cases where everything came together oh so perfectly during a stronger el nino winter:
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    In fall 2011, when I was a student at Drexel, I read this book for one of my classes: I remember somewhere in the book where they talk about the winter of 1957-58 being very snowy and cold.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm a huge tennis fan. Tomorrow is a big sports day for me. Fritz-Tiafoe, then the Eagles play their opener.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, the AMO/PDO flip is going to look something like 2012-16. If something is underway, I think 2024-25 would be the 2012-13 stage. Next summer/fall is when the PDO would be starting to flip. The flip will be apparent by the summer of 2026. Crazy as it sounds, I think we could get the modoki el nino the CanSIPS was showing, but maybe for 2026-27, and that would be the lead up to the super el nino event in 2027-28. Only difference is that the PDO/AMO doesn't flip back like it did in 2016-17.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    Actually, since 2012 (the uber warm 2015 skewed everything): For what it's worth, all of these Decembers were warm: Of course, January-March in those years were cold (not so much 2013, which was a bit cooler than average especially February and March, but 2014 and 2015 were historically cold): FWIW, the warmer Novembers since 2012 (aside from 2015) were 2016, 2020, and 2022. All of those years were central-based la ninas.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    We just need a mudstorm like late October 2007.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    CFS showing a cool November for the midwest and most of the East (this bodes well for a good winter):
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    Is this men's tennis or women's tennis?
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    An el nino of +1.0C is almost certainly not going to happen in 2025-26. I think the only time we got an el nino of that strength with a cold subsurface the previous summer was 1994-95, when the subsurface in summer of 1993 looked like this:
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    I remember September 2020 being on the cool end. Did we also have stronger MJO 5-6 region forcing that year?
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I highly doubt an el nino is going to form in summer 2025, especially considering the subsurface was cold this summer. Plus, we are still in a deep cyclical -PDO pattern. An el nino is very unlikely to form under those conditions. Maybe if next summer the subsurface is warm and we have an ENSO neutral or dissipating la nina conditions in late winter/early spring 2026, I might entertain the thought of an el nino forming for 2026-27. El ninos just do not pop up overnight. Their conditions are built under the surface over time. Sometimes, the conditions stay there for several years before they unleash their fury (just look at the years leading up to 1957-58 or the 3 years before 2015-16). You'll know when an el nino is coming, and sometimes years in advance. The conditions for an el nino aren't close to being there.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    It would probably have to be an east-based la nina like 2021-22, but the mismatch happening in December, rather than January. ACY would hit a snow jackpot in December in this case, but nothing for the rest of the season.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Can my winter look like this instead:
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    The sample size of official heat waves in April is really small: 1976, 2002, and 2009. This certainly rings true for 1976 and 2009, but not 2002 (which was a very hot summer). Although each of those followed up with a very cold and snowy winter. Coincidentally enough, each of these years were a developing el nino.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    Another reason for the low number of named storms this year is the SSTa configuration. It mirrors quiet non-el Nino years like 1970, 1973, and 2013:
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I was thinking you were going to say a weird date outside of the season like October 2, 2019.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    At this point, I bet we don't even reach the 140 ACE of 2016.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm still salty about Idalia not getting retired. Lesser storms in the past have gotten retired. I guess the WMO changed the criteria and made it harder for storms to be retired. If Idalia didn't get retired, I highly doubt Debbie or Ernesto will. I think only really big storms, like Beryl, will be retired going forward.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    This would mark the first time in 27 years that not a single named storm, those with winds of at least 39 mph, has developed in the Atlantic between Aug. 21 and Sept. 2.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think we've been in a record -PDO cyclical pattern since the beginning of 2020: 2020 -1.41 -1.48 -1.75 -1.32 -0.53 -0.75 -0.92 -1.33 -1.04 -0.62 -1.59 -0.99 2021 -0.61 -1.09 -1.68 -1.84 -2.01 -1.81 -1.96 -0.94 -1.96 -3.13 -2.75 -2.71 2022 -2.40 -1.91 -1.67 -2.10 -2.25 -1.33 -2.62 -2.39 -2.29 -1.82 -2.41 -2.21 2023 -1.25 -1.65 -2.45 -3.07 -2.42 -2.53 -2.52 -2.47 -2.98 -2.23 -1.79 -1.66
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