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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    But we do have a similar precedent for this with 1992 not going la nina (even if it was affected by Mt. Pinatubo, and the global temperatures are ~1C warmer now than in 1992). 1991-92 was a similar el nino strength as 2023-24 (maybe even stronger).
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    There seems to be a shift with the recent strong el ninos. The 2015-16 and 2023-24 el ninos didn't drop below -0.5C. (This is the first time that two consecutive strong el ninos didn't drop below -0.5 since the 1957-58 and 1965-66 el ninos.) That differs from the 1972 to 2011 period, when all strong el ninos (+1.5) dropped below the -0.5C threshold, except 1991-92. 1957-58 -> no 1965-66 -> no 1972-73 -> yes (strong la nina 1973-74) 1982-83 -> yes 1986-88 -> yes (strong la nina 1988-89) 1991-92 -> no 1997-98 -> yes (strong la nina 1998-2000) 2010-11 -> yes (strong la nina 2010-11) 2015-16 -> no 2023-24 -> no
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't consider 2023-24 a super el nino. The RONI never reached 1.5 and the MEI only had one bimonthly at 1 (basically a weak el nino like 2006-07). 1991-92 has a better case for a super el nino, as it reached +2 on both the RONI and MEI. If included, 1992 would be a precedent year (since it never went to la nina, and in fact stayed an el nino on the MEI until 1995).
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think rapidly increasing climate change is a huge factor in the difference between the 2005-2014 -PDO cycle compared to the current -PDO cycle. Keep in mind, 2009-10 and 2023-24 had similar ENSO states, yet 2009-10 was a cold and very snowy winter, while 2023-24 was a very warm winter. I think the Earth being 0.5C warmer in 2023-24, compared to 2009-10, is a huge reason for the differences.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    August 21, 2017: United States total solar eclipse Week 14: Eagles star QB Carson Wentz suffers season-ending injury against the Rams in LA. Eagles win Super Bowl LII April 8, 2024: United States total solar eclipse Week 12: Eagles star DE Brandon Graham suffers season-ending injury against the Rams in LA. Eagles win Super Bowl LIX confirmed!
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I don't think we'll get a 89-90 scenario. November 1989 was cold, and it was already snowing by Thanksgiving. I think we'll more likely get another 2005-06 or maybe a 2020-21. Both were warm Novembers that turned cold at the beginning of December. Both years had a warm period in the middle of the winter, but reverted back to being colder and more snowy in February.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    Funny, NWS Mt. Holly posted about this in June: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1797327260162396478 Weather still happens. Climate change is an average. The average temperature has gone up 2 degrees since then, so these readings from 1925 would likely be about 2 degrees higher if the same heat wave happened today. That would've meant five 100-degree days instead of just two. https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1797424229769785685 2011 was the last time it passed 100 at Lehigh Valley International Airport. Despite that, the average temperature is still 2 degrees hotter than it was 99 years ago.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 2017 was cold too, and that carried over into the start of January 2018. That one didn't really moderate until mid-January. Of course, we know about the absolute torch of February 2018, which skewed the winter into above average temperatures. That said, I don't see this winter ending up like 2010-11 or 2017-18. I think a 2020-21 type winter is more likely.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    I feel like it's going to just be the first half of December. I see us turning to a warmer than average pattern during the 2nd half of December, which will last through, at the very least, most of January. I think the big question is whether the pattern will revert back to colder than average in late January or early February, but that's way too early to tell at this point.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think we're more likely to get a 2020-21 type season, rather than a 2010-11 or 2017-18 (both of which were cold through most of December and January). I think the 2nd half of December and most of January is going to be warm. The big question is if, like in 2021, it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    December 4 or 5 seems to be the sweet spot, especially in the 2000s (see 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007). 2013 was December 8 and 2017 was December 9. I have been hinting at colder than average temperatures and a major snowstorm during the first week of December.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    The first half of December looks cold. The second half of December and most of January is going to be warm. I still think there's a chance that it turns back to a colder than average pattern in late January or early February. I think it's going to be a 2020-21 like season, but with the temperature departures amplified.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is in regards to 12-13, not 13-14, right? Because 2012 was an active hurricane season, 2013 not so much.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    A little more south and a lot of locations had less than an inch of snow in 19-20. PHL had 17.1" of snow in 18-19 and 0.3" in 19-20, while ACY had 17.8" in 18-19 and 0.5" in 19-20.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    Pretty funny how both 2017-18 and 2018-19 ended with the same DJF temperature for PHL. I'll take the highs of 2017-18 over the consistency of 2018-19. But no way am I ever going to take 2019-20 over 2018-19. 19-20 is just another 11-12. I'm taking a winter with consistent cold shots and small snowstorms like 18-19 (and running) any day over a wall-to-wall torch, snowless winter like 11-12 or 19-20. At least we got some of the big October 2011 snowstorm. We were shut out in December 2019.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    In retrospect, 2018-19 wasn't that bad of a winter, considering the one that followed it. 18-19 was a nickels and dimes winter in the mid-Atlantic, but it was probably the one that provided the most consistent cold shots/snow of all the winters post-2015. Yes, 2017-18 and 2020-21 had more snow, but both of them either had an extended warm period (February for 17-18) or snow shutoff (late December-end of January 20-21). 18-19 is still the coldest Nov-Mar period in PHL post-2015. 1/31/2019 was the last time I really had to layer up. If you want to see an all-around disaster winter, there's 2019-20.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm particularly looking at December 2-4 here in the Philly area.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    The MEI has been updated. AS was -0.6 and SO was -0.5 I certainly wasn't expecting that, but the la nina is cooked. (Although we got an offical weak la nina on the MEI.)
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I don't see that Thanksgiving snowstorm coming to fruition. However, I think we are primed for a widespread snow event during the first week of December.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Weather Channel has been very good at predicting crappy (torch) winter months in recent years. They nailed Decembers 2015, 2021, and 2023 in advance. For what it's worth, they have January torching. I think February is going to be the best month for winter weather.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    Cold beginning of December is pretty much locked at this point. The question now is whether any part of the Eastern US can capitalize on this winter.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I highly doubt a deep freeze will happen, but I see colder than average temperatures during the first third of the month. There's a very good chance for a snow event during this time frame. However, it will turn warmer than average for the middle third of December. I can see cooler than average temperatures during the final third of December. However, I am not sure of a Christmas snow event. The last White Christmas at PHL was in 2002, and the last snow event near Christmas was December 26, 2010.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    As I have said all along, the first third of December will be colder than average for most of the Eastern US, while the middle third of December will be warmer than average. I think the potential is there for a snowstorm somewhere on Dec. 4 or 5.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    2002-03 to 2009-10 was a weird stretch of 4 one-year el ninos in 8 years. 2002-03 - Moderate el nino 2003-04 - ENSO neutral 2004-05 - Weak el nino 2005-06 - Weak la nina 2006-07 - Weak el nino 2007-08 - Strong la nina 2008-09 - Weak la nina 2009-10 - Strong el nino
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really. That winter was a unicorn, one-of-a-kind. November 1989 was already cold, and it snowed on Thanksgiving (it's still the most recent Thanksgiving snow for PHL). December 1989 was record cold. Then, all of a sudden, the pattern changed and January 1990 was 15 degrees warmer than December 1989. That jump is bigger than the normal March-April or April-May jump. The first third of December is going to be cold, but the middle third should be above average temperaturewise, and overall, December 2024 should be near average. January 2025 is going to be warm like January 1990, but I still think February 2025 will be cold and snowy.
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