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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    If 2022 really finished below 100 ACE, then this season is easily a lock for below 100 ACE. 2022 was nowhere near as dead as this season. We're halfway through September, and we're still below 40 ACE. We're probably going to finish below 80 ACE, maybe even below 70 ACE.
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm pretty sure this 2-year ACE record is going to stand for a very long time. 6 2004 226.94 1 2005 247.65 Even in this era of more storms, we've only had 2 hyperactive ACE seasons post-2005: 8 2017 224.8775 11 2020 180.3725
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    For PHL, last 6-inch snowstorm was Jan 28-29, 2022. Last 8-inch snowstorm was Jan 22-23, 2016. The 2016 one was probably the last real KU for our area.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I'm pretty sure 2006 had a colder than normal first half and second half of September. It also had a colder than normal first half and second half of October. Then, things really flipped and we had record warmth from November through the first of January 2007 (before the bottom fell out of the thermometer in February 2007).
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    What about 57-58 and 09-10 (the two very snowy el ninos)? Were the 500mb height anomalies similar when adjusted for climate?
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    First time since 1992 we have no tropical activity at the peak of the season. That, of course, followed Hurricane Andrew. It's looking more and more like Erin is going to be a one-off, like Andrew.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    Not really. If last year was a real la nina, then the Nino 1+2 region would not have been in a moderate, borderline strong el nino state. I wouldn't consider last year a la nina. I would consider it a neutral, albeit not in a traditional sense.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    17-18 or 20-21 is probably the best we can do in this new regime, and even those years had a long stretch of warmth/no snow in the middle. Plus, 20-21 didn't even do great along the coastal areas. But a ubiquitously great and long lasting winter in the east (like 13-14 or 14-15) is probably not going to happen.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    1988 was one that turned cold really quickly. The summer, particularly from June to the first half/two-thirds of August, was then a warmest on record. Then at the end of August, it just turned cold, and never really looked back. October 1988 was one of the coldest on record, and in some spots, beat out the cold standard of October 1976: Come to think of it, the warm west makes this look like the October version of February (or JFM) 2015.
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    Barring a 10/2/2019 event, this should be all she wrote for the summer weather until next season.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Drought guy wrong again. I've been drought free since March 5.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    I love how you cherry pick "Philly to Boston". Why not the mid-Atlantic (Philly to DC)? Oh wait, a lot of places there had a higher snow average the last 2 years than in 16-17 to 22-23, so it won't fit your agenda?
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    Classic case is 2011. That was a cold October, with a snowstorm at the end of the month. Pattern flipped soon thereafter, and it was blowtorch from November through March.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    Octobers have been almost always warmer than average since 2010. Funny enough, the only 2 that were below average were 2011 and 2022, and both of those winters were snowless blowtorches.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    This is as good as you're going to get at this time of year. Watch us have 100-degree heat at this time next year.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    FWIW, the last 2 -IODs that were as strong as this year torched in November-February. The only difference is that (outside of Baltimore and DC), we got the blizzard in mid-March 2017, otherwise 16-17 would have been a snow shutout like 22-23. The big difference this time around is that we had a cool August (2016 and 2022 had record warm Augusts).
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    If I were running the team, I would trade Jalen Carter as soon as possible, hopefully get a lot of picks out of it, and let someone else pay him in the offseason (and be their problem). We should have kept CJGJ instead. The difference between CJGJ and Carter is that CJGJ knows where the line is, and doesn't cross it. Can't say that about Carter.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging: JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2 JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46 August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12) If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate. If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    I guess this means the upcoming winter is cooked and torched. I had a below 161 ACE before the season even begun, and it was pretty apparent by mid-June. The better question now is if we're even going to hit half of 161 ACE.
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    The big difference is in 1+2. Last year was never going to behave like a la nina with that east-based el nino.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    Looks like a Greenland block in October:
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, it's about time to face the music and accept that this season may be a below average activity hurricane season. Keep in mind, we're at the point when Felix hit. No major storms formed after that point that year, and that was a strong la nina. A one-storm wonder season is not even unprecedented. Andrew hit in August, like Erin, and there wasn't another major storm the rest of the season.
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