PhiEaglesfan712

In winter. May and June 2023 were -2 to -4 temperature departure in many places in the East.

Yeah, that's exactly what happened in spring/summer 2002. The last thing we need right now is a 2001-02 redux. Thank goodness for the pattern change in fall 2002, and the snowy winter of 2002-03 that got us out of that drought.

I don't like 2002 as an analog for this year. That was an el nino. Plus, the signs of a very cold and snowy winter were there early on. We don't have any of that this year. I think 2005 is a better fit analog for this year. That was a very warm November, which suddenly turned cold in December. If I remember correctly, all but one day in the first two-thirds of December 2005 was below average. Then, it turned warm, and January was an absolute torch. The cold returned for the final two-thirds of February, starting with the Feb. 11-12, 2006 snowstorm.

Only if you're under 23 or so. There is precedent for those who remember what happened following the very warm and snowless winter of 2001-02.

March-August 2023 was a cool stretch of months here in the mid-Atlantic. May and June were the brunt of the cool weather here, with temperature departures of -2 to -4 in many locations. That is very rare for that time of year. Of course, it was too late for snow to fall. But if we can get a -2 to -4 temperature departure in January and February, instead of May and June...

I remember those great December 5 storms during the 2000s. Three when I was in high school (2002, 2003, and 2005), and another when I was in community college (2007). Of course, 2005 was the Eagles infamous 42-0 loss on MNF.

Finally changing your tune, huh? I told you there wasn't going to be a snowstorm on Christmas and the drought wasn't ending any time soon.

3 out of 4 times, it turned out to be correct. Winter never returned after December 2019, December 2022, and February 2024. (To be fair, I was one who bailed on the extremely cold/snowy February 2024. I thought the snow mid-January would become a cold/snowy 2nd half of winter like 2006-07, but when February started out warm, I knew the analog was toast.) The only one that turned out wrong was December 2021, which of course, had the famous mismatch in January 2022.

I had Torch January predicted back in early September. That's the one thing I haven't wavered from in my winter forecast. December was always going to be a tough month to predict. I had a feeling it was going to start out cold, but I've waffled back and forth on when the warm-up will be.

Torch January was the easiest thing to predict for this winter.

Most of the region is in a drought (the worst since 2001-02). But no, there isn't going to be a snowstorm anywhere near Christmas. Models are showing a warm-up during the 2nd half of December.

The winter of 2013-14 itself wasn't a +PDO, but was one that trended in that general direction. 2014-15 was the +PDO winter, as was the super el nino of 2015-16. 2016-17 was pretty much the opposite of 2013-14, in regards to the PDO.

Didn't we get one in 2015?

I feel like this month is the November 2021, rather than January 2022. It seems like a cool, but dry month. I feel like we're going to get a torch next month, and February will be another cool, but this time snowier, month. 2021-22, if shifted by a month, looks like a fairly good analog to me: November 2024 = October 2021 December 2024 = November 2021 January 2025 = December 2021 February 2025 = January 2022 This winter will end up having a similar temperature profile as 2005-06.

Possible snow event Wednesday night/Thursday morning. December 4-5 usually is a sweet spot for the first snowfall at PHL. See 2002, 2003, 2005, and 2007. Eagles 10-2

2005-06 looks like a very good analog. November 2005 perfectly fits the temperature/precipitation profile of this November. 2005-11-01 70 44 57.0 4.8 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-02 60 43 51.5 -0.4 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-03 67 40 53.5 2.0 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-04 67 44 55.5 4.3 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-05 72 47 59.5 8.7 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-06 74 45 59.5 9.0 5 0 0.06 0.0 0 2005-11-07 62 47 54.5 4.4 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-08 65 44 54.5 4.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-09 69 53 61.0 11.6 4 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-10 69 43 56.0 6.9 9 0 0.29 0.0 0 2005-11-11 49 38 43.5 -5.3 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-12 58 33 45.5 -2.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-13 65 41 53.0 4.9 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-14 67 50 58.5 10.7 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-15 71 53 62.0 14.6 3 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-16 76 45 60.5 13.4 4 0 0.78 0.0 0 2005-11-17 46 33 39.5 -7.3 25 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-18 40 29 34.5 -12.0 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-19 48 29 38.5 -7.6 26 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-20 59 34 46.5 0.7 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-21 51 40 45.5 0.0 19 0 0.41 0.0 0 2005-11-22 48 36 42.0 -3.2 23 0 0.62 0.0 0 2005-11-23 37 29 33.0 -11.9 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-24 51 24 37.5 -7.1 27 0 T T 0 2005-11-25 34 22 28.0 -16.3 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-26 42 25 33.5 -10.5 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-11-27 53 31 42.0 -1.6 23 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-28 69 47 58.0 14.7 7 0 T 0.0 0 2005-11-29 69 57 63.0 19.9 2 0 0.53 0.0 0 2005-11-30 63 39 51.0 8.2 14 0 0.17 0.0 0 Then, it flipped to very cold to start December, which lasted for most of the month, until it turned mild towards the end. 2005-12-01 46 36 41.0 -1.5 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-02 42 31 36.5 -5.7 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-03 35 26 30.5 -11.4 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-04 39 29 34.0 -7.6 31 0 0.28 0.6 T 2005-12-05 36 30 33.0 -8.3 32 0 0.03 0.7 1 2005-12-06 37 26 31.5 -9.6 33 0 0.17 3.3 4 2005-12-07 34 23 28.5 -12.3 36 0 0.00 0.0 2 2005-12-08 32 20 26.0 -14.5 39 0 0.00 0.0 1 2005-12-09 36 25 30.5 -9.7 34 0 0.48 2.2 2 2005-12-10 35 22 28.5 -11.5 36 0 0.00 0.0 1 2005-12-11 40 25 32.5 -7.2 32 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-12 39 25 32.0 -7.5 33 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-13 28 17 22.5 -16.7 42 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-14 24 15 19.5 -19.5 45 0 0.00 0.0 T 2005-12-15 47 17 32.0 -6.7 33 0 0.55 0.2 T 2005-12-16 53 34 43.5 5.0 21 0 0.63 0.0 0 2005-12-17 42 28 35.0 -3.2 30 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-18 42 29 35.5 -2.5 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-19 39 23 31.0 -6.7 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-20 36 19 27.5 -10.0 37 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-21 34 23 28.5 -8.8 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-22 38 26 32.0 -5.1 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-23 51 30 40.5 3.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-24 55 30 42.5 5.9 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-25 55 27 41.0 4.6 24 0 0.40 0.0 0 2005-12-26 47 41 44.0 7.8 21 0 0.02 0.0 0 2005-12-27 47 36 41.5 5.5 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-28 52 30 41.0 5.2 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-29 49 43 46.0 10.4 19 0 0.30 0.0 0 2005-12-30 48 34 41.0 5.6 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2005-12-31 40 33 36.5 1.2 28 0 0.11 0.0 0 January turned out to be a torch: 2006-01-01 45 31 38.0 2.9 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-02 45 28 36.5 1.6 28 0 0.92 0.0 0 2006-01-03 45 36 40.5 5.8 24 0 0.45 0.0 0 2006-01-04 43 35 39.0 4.4 26 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-05 51 37 44.0 9.6 21 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-06 43 32 37.5 3.2 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-07 36 22 29.0 -5.2 36 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-08 46 34 40.0 6.0 25 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-09 60 37 48.5 14.6 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-10 50 36 43.0 9.2 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-11 53 34 43.5 9.8 21 0 0.37 0.0 0 2006-01-12 58 39 48.5 14.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-13 59 35 47.0 13.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-14 60 32 46.0 12.6 19 0 0.53 0.2 0 2006-01-15 34 25 29.5 -3.8 35 0 0.02 0.2 T 2006-01-16 32 20 26.0 -7.3 39 0 0.00 0.0 T 2006-01-17 50 27 38.5 5.3 26 0 0.03 0.0 0 2006-01-18 64 35 49.5 16.3 15 0 0.72 0.0 0 2006-01-19 52 33 42.5 9.3 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-20 57 36 46.5 13.4 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-21 61 37 49.0 15.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-22 46 31 38.5 5.4 26 0 0.03 0.0 0 2006-01-23 43 35 39.0 5.9 26 0 1.04 0.0 0 2006-01-24 47 32 39.5 6.4 25 0 0.09 T 0 2006-01-25 41 33 37.0 3.8 28 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-26 36 27 31.5 -1.7 33 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-27 44 23 33.5 0.3 31 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-28 59 30 44.5 11.2 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2006-01-29 55 33 44.0 10.6 21 0 0.13 0.0 0 2006-01-30 62 37 49.5 16.1 15 0 T 0.0 0 2006-01-31 46 41 43.5 10.0 21 0 0.01 0.0 0

The Eagles have had quite a few in the last 20 years. The NFC Championship win over the Falcons, the 49ers game in 2009, and the LeSean McCoy game against the Lions in 2013. The Vikings game in 2010 should have never been postponed. But as Ed Randell said, we've become a 'nation of wusses'.

Possibly in late January, but most of the month is going to be warm. I don't see a 2010-11 or 2017-18 type winter.

Yep, the pattern turns back to colder in February. As I said all along: cool December, very warm January, and cool February.

Zero percent chance of this happening. The winter of 2002-03 was close to once in a lifetime. Climate has changed a lot between then and now. We haven't had a clipper since January 22-23, 2005 (that was nearly 20 years ago). Besides, the winter of 2002-03 came at the end of a yearlong drought. The current drought is barely a month old, and in fact, we're closer to where we were heading into the winter of 2001-02. There's a better chance at a 01-02 redux than a 02-03 redux.

I think we're more likely to get a 05-06 or 20-21. I still have hope for a cold and snowy February.

Looks like we will be in MJO 7 for the first half of January, MJO 8 for the second half of January, and MJO 1/2 in February.

Does the Bills game still get played on Sunday night, or will it get postponed?