PhiEaglesfan712

July 22, 2011 is the gold standard when it comes to widespread triple digit heat. Newark reached 108, and the Lehigh Valley even got over 100 (which rarely ever happens).

The 100-degree drought at PHL is over: https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1937572239236305000

PHL temp at 10 is 93, one degree warmer than at this time yesterday.

92 at PHL at 10 am. If we go by the 10+10 rule, PHL should top out at about 102 today.

How is this even possible?

I don't think the PDO is similar to last year. We still have a -PDO, but I think we're heading towards neutral PDO as we get towards the winter. Progress isn't linear. Just look at 2013, which drifted back a bit into the negative during the summer: 2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.16 -1.71

It's officially Go Birds season when we see this in the forecast.

No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

Some places were very warm, but it wasn't as widespread: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/201007/1/rank In fact, 2011 was more widespread than 2010: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/mapping/110/tavg/201107/1/rank

Didn't we get that in July 2012?

April 2007, in addition to being cold, was really wet. I think it was the wettest April on record at PHL. If only we had that wet pattern in February, we could have done some epic snow totals that month.

November, December, and most of January was extremely warm. Temperatures really bottomed out in February 2007. Aside from the historically cold February 2015, I believe February 2007 is the next coldest February this side of 1980.

Is this what happened on 7/22/2011 when EWR got to 108?

In 2023, when we last had highs in the mid-60s this late in June, we next had a high in the 60s on 9/23, which began a week of highs 70 or lower (although October started warm with several days in the 80s): 2023-09-23 63 58 60.5 -6.9 4 0 1.15 0.0 0 2023-09-24 70 63 66.5 -0.5 0 2 0.53 0.0 0 2023-09-25 66 58 62.0 -4.6 3 0 0.09 0.0 0 2023-09-26 63 58 60.5 -5.7 4 0 0.02 0.0 0 2023-09-27 70 55 62.5 -3.3 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-09-28 65 56 60.5 -4.9 4 0 0.06 0.0 0 2023-09-29 68 59 63.5 -1.4 1 0 0.21 0.0 0 2023-10-01 81 60 70.5 6.4 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2023-10-02 82 62 72.0 8.3 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2023-10-03 82 59 70.5 7.2 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2023-10-04 83 60 71.5 8.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2023-10-05 81 58 69.5 7.0 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2023-10-06 80 66 73.0 10.9 0 8 0.00 0.0 0

Hang in there. I'm sure we'll eventually get the background state that we got in late 2013 until the super el nino ended in early/mid-2016. The -PDO streak can't last the entire decade, right?

In the future, when we have cold waves in the middle of June, we'll always have June 21-22, 2023 and June 15-16, 2025 to compare it to.

Yeah, at least 1944-57 was a la nina state. (You could argue the la nina state lasted until 1976, although it was temporarily broken up during the strong el nino in 1957-58.)

Wasn't this the one that produced the 120F (50C) temperatures in Western Canada at 50N latitude?

All the subtle changes. For one, the Pacific is already active this year. That was not the case last year. Secondly, we're entering a 2nd year without a clear ENSO state, and we're near a solar max. The last time we had those conditions were in 2013 and 2014, and both produced well below average seasons. (Quite a contrast to 2010-2012, which were 3 very active seasons.) Everything is screaming this is going to be a quiet season. Here's my forecast (using 2013 and 2014 as my main analogs): 11 named storms (range 8-14) 4 hurricanes (range 2-6) 1 major hurricane (range 0-2) 51.5 ACE (range 36-67)

Good luck with that. Anyone that's been paying attention knows we're not coming anywhere near these numbers.

It was only average in number of named storms. If you take a deeper look, 2013 finished with a Top 10 lowest ACE season, with only 2 hurricanes, and no major ones. (Even 2014 didn't go that low in those respects.) 2013 put up some numbers that seem unfathomable in this 21st century climate, especially coming off 3 very active seasons. It's a well-below average season.

I think it's pretty apparent that we're going to have a very quiet hurricane season in the Atlantic. Unlike last year, the Pacific is very active, already on their 4th named storm. As they say, when the Pacific is active, more than likely the Atlantic is quiet. This year is going to look more like 2013/2014 than 2010/2011/2012.

Let's not re-write the weather. Yeah, the first half of April was a bit cool and rainy (but only slightly to the average): 2025-04-01 62 44 53.0 4.0 12 0 0.16 0.0 0 2025-04-02 57 38 47.5 -1.9 17 0 0.02 0.0 0 2025-04-03 76 48 62.0 12.2 3 0 0.04 0.0 0 2025-04-04 71 60 65.5 15.4 0 1 0.88 T 0 2025-04-05 62 49 55.5 5.0 9 0 0.02 0.0 0 2025-04-06 55 48 51.5 0.6 13 0 0.02 0.0 0 2025-04-07 51 41 46.0 -5.3 19 0 0.28 0.0 0 2025-04-08 48 38 43.0 -8.7 22 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-09 50 33 41.5 -10.6 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-10 54 42 48.0 -4.5 17 0 T 0.0 0 2025-04-11 48 42 45.0 -7.9 20 0 1.24 0.0 0 2025-04-12 45 38 41.5 -11.8 23 0 0.14 0.0 0 But as you can see, after the 12th, it turns very hot and dry (only 0.03 inches of rain after the Nor'easter): 2025-04-13 62 42 52.0 -1.6 13 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-14 70 44 57.0 3.0 8 0 T 0.0 0 2025-04-15 69 48 58.5 4.1 6 0 T 0.0 0 2025-04-16 57 44 50.5 -4.3 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-17 63 37 50.0 -5.2 15 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-18 72 42 57.0 1.5 8 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-19 80 63 71.5 15.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-20 73 51 62.0 5.7 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-21 66 50 58.0 1.4 7 0 T 0.0 0 2025-04-22 80 53 66.5 9.5 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-23 77 54 65.5 8.2 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-24 79 50 64.5 6.8 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-25 79 51 65.0 7.0 0 0 T 0.0 0 2025-04-26 75 53 64.0 5.6 1 0 0.03 0.0 0 2025-04-27 72 50 61.0 2.3 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-28 75 47 61.0 2.0 4 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-29 83 50 66.5 7.1 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2025-04-30 80 57 68.5 8.8 0 4 T 0.0 0 The cold pattern, outside of a few hiccups, ended just after the 2/20 snow event. From about the last week of February until mid-May was mostly warm. Only around mid-May did we turn cold. 2025-05-01 81 54 67.5 7.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-02 86 59 72.5 12.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-03 85 64 74.5 13.9 0 10 0.04 0.0 0 2025-05-04 73 63 68.0 7.1 0 3 0.12 0.0 0 2025-05-05 73 61 67.0 5.8 0 2 T 0.0 0 2025-05-06 81 61 71.0 9.5 0 6 0.03 0.0 0 2025-05-07 75 60 67.5 5.7 0 3 T 0.0 0 2025-05-08 81 59 70.0 7.9 0 5 T 0.0 0 2025-05-09 64 51 57.5 -4.8 7 0 0.18 0.0 0 2025-05-10 74 49 61.5 -1.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-11 82 55 68.5 5.6 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-12 83 55 69.0 5.8 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-13 71 62 66.5 3.1 0 2 0.28 0.0 0 2025-05-14 66 59 62.5 -1.2 2 0 1.30 0.0 0 2025-05-15 77 63 70.0 6.0 0 5 0.03 0.0 0 2025-05-16 77 60 68.5 4.2 0 4 1.50 0.0 0 2025-05-17 86 62 74.0 9.4 0 9 T 0.0 0 2025-05-18 77 64 70.5 5.7 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 Pretty clearly you can see the pattern change from warm to cold: 2025-05-19 71 56 63.5 -1.6 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-20 69 50 59.5 -5.9 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-21 57 52 54.5 -11.2 10 0 0.45 0.0 0 2025-05-22 56 51 53.5 -12.5 11 0 0.56 0.0 0 2025-05-23 69 51 60.0 -6.3 5 0 T 0.0 0 2025-05-24 68 50 59.0 -7.5 6 0 T 0.0 0 2025-05-25 71 52 61.5 -5.3 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-26 75 53 64.0 -3.1 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-05-27 74 54 64.0 -3.4 1 0 0.01 0.0 0 2025-05-28 59 53 56.0 -11.7 9 0 0.77 0.0 0 2025-05-29 74 57 65.5 -2.6 0 1 0.01 0.0 0 2025-05-30 79 63 71.0 2.6 0 6 0.88 0.0 0 2025-05-31 75 55 65.0 -3.7 0 0 0.06 0.0 0

That's an exaggeration. Maybe since mid-May, but March until up to mid-May (outside of the Nor'easter on 4/11-12) was one of the warmer times of the year so far. We had 80+ the last 3 days of March. That stuff does not happen in a cool pattern! If we've been in a cool pattern since the last week of March, then 2025 would be on track to being the coldest year in a very long time, since the winter (January and February) wasn't that warm to begin with.