PhiEaglesfan712

2024-25 is the first below average winter at PHL using 1981-2010 since 2014-15. Below average winters and summers since winter 2009-10 (using 1981-2010 averages): Winters: 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2024-25 Summers: 2014 (by 0.2F), 2023 (by 0.1F, but the JAS average is above the summer/JJA average)

I think we need to unpin and close the 2023-24 el nino thread (don't know why that one is still pinned), and merge the 2025-26 ENSO threads into one and pin.

I see more similarity to 2013 than 2014:

It was overcast at 2:10/2:15 this morning, so I didn't even bother to go out and see the eclipse.

March CPC ENSO update:

The JF 2025 MEI comes in at -0.8C.

I walked through mud during the Eagles parade. 2001-02 was probably the last cold season I remember where there was no mud at all. The weather was so warm and dry that fall/winter, we had outdoor recess almost every day, even through the dead of winter.

Even lower than spring 2002?

March is going to end up solidly above average. We already have a +4 temperature departure for the month so far, and at least the next few weeks looks well above average.

I'm not so sure if it's the jet pattern or the deep -PDO. Even when we had the favorable jet pattern, there were 2 years when we had a deep -PDO (11-12 and 12-13). Those were two of the least snowy winters in the mid-Atlantic.

Assuming no more snow falls this year, PHL could set the record for the least snowy 10-year period next year. The current record is 1922-23 to 1932-33, averaging 13.2 inches. 1923 19.5 1924 21.8 1925 12.1 1926 19.1 1927 11.8 1928 15.5 1929 11.9 1930 8.2 1931 4.1 1932 8 2016-17 to 2024-25 is averaging 13.18 inches. 2017 15 2018 29.8 2019 17.1 2020 0.3 2021 23.9 2022 12.9 2023 0.3 2024 11.2 2025 8.1 2025-26 would need to come in at less than 13.4 inches to break the record.

Still, we've only had 2 summers cooler than average since 2010 (namely 2014 and 2023). And 2023 was due to a historically cold June. Despite that, the JJA 2023 average was a tenth below average. If you use JAS 2023, it's above the historical summer average. 2014 was two-tenths below average. So, we really haven't had a cool summer in the East since 2009.

I think it was December 2015 that was the spring month. December 2014 was a warm month (an outlier to the rest of the winter, but a +3, not +9. December 2013 was close to normal, like this December. Difference is that February 2014 was much colder, whereas this February was another near normal month. I'd say 2014 was definitely more consistent cold than this winter. 2015 has them both beat at the depths of their cold (coldest tri-monthly at PHL was 31.9 Jan-March, while 2014 was 33, and this year 34.9).

March 1998 shows we can go from one extreme to the other in very short order. Just a week later, we were in an early heat wave, and we made a run at 90 on 3/31. 01-02 is one that never really had a winter. Save for the snowstorm on 1/19, that was a torch from late October until the heat wave in mid-April.

That el nino that developed in 86 was a unicorn. That was a 2-year strong el nino, which peaked in the summer of 87. Of course, after the el nino ended, there was a sharp correction to one of the strongest la ninas on record in 88-89. I think if we get an el nino in 25-26, it will be much weaker, like 06-07. If this is the case, I think this year is closer to 12-13 than to 13-14. 12-13, while warmer than this winter, had similar snowfall to this year, in a ENSO neutral, deep -PDO year, which rose throughout the winter.

2014 and 2015 exist. To me, those are the gold standards for winters going forward.

So glad this morning is trash day.

DJF ONI: -0.6 DJF RONI: -1.18

February 2025 PDO is in at -1.4, which is lower than the -1.28 reading in January. I had 2013 as the analog for PDO this year. How Jan/Feb 2025 compares to Jan/Feb 2013: 2025 -1.28 -1.40 2013 -1.10 -1.42

After our first below average temperature winter in 10 years, is a warm March in the cards?

The only time we got those temperatures in March was in 2014 and 2015, and that was early in the month, following historical cold in January and February. Yep, this is not going to happen.

Can you really this year a la nina when Nino 1+2 is at +1.1C, and has been in an el nino state most of the winter?

I'd say 2024-25 is an ENSO neutral, even if it wasn't conventional (like say 2013-14). We basically had a WPAC la nina and a EPAC el nino.

I'd argue the historic benchmark snowfall pattern ended after the January 2016 snowstorm. If not for that snowstorm, then 2014-15 would have been a clear demarcation on when the snowy pattern ended. The pattern started to break down when the super el nino/cyclical +PDO pattern ended in 2016. Though we were still hitting snowfall averages in 16-17, 17-18, and even 18-19, we weren't getting the blockbuster snowstorms (like we were from 3/1/2009 to 1/2016). If not for the late Jan/early Feb 2021 snowstorm, NYC would be working on 9 straight years without a 10-inch snowstorm. PHL hasn't had an 8-inch snowstorm since the January 2016 snowstorm.