PhiEaglesfan712

Yes, but you need cold air and precipitation for a snowstorm to happen. We had that in March/April 2018. We just didn't have that in March/April 2023, at least where I lived, until the huge rainstorm at the end of April. I mean, it's pretty hard to get snow when your late March/early April looks like this: 2023-03-21 61 32 46.5 1.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-22 64 38 51.0 5.6 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-23 62 48 55.0 9.3 10 0 0.42 0.0 0 2023-03-24 59 44 51.5 5.5 13 0 0.12 0.0 0 2023-03-25 49 44 46.5 0.1 18 0 0.23 0.0 0 2023-03-26 63 44 53.5 6.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-27 66 39 52.5 5.4 12 0 0.15 0.0 0 2023-03-28 53 39 46.0 -1.5 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-29 57 37 47.0 -0.9 18 0 T 0.0 0 2023-03-30 48 33 40.5 -7.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-31 63 35 49.0 0.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-01 71 50 60.5 11.5 4 0 0.50 0.0 0 2023-04-02 52 39 45.5 -3.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-03 63 35 49.0 -0.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-04 77 50 63.5 13.4 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-05 72 55 63.5 13.0 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-06 83 55 69.0 18.1 0 4 0.27 0.0 0 2023-04-07 59 47 53.0 1.7 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-08 51 39 45.0 -6.7 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-09 59 36 47.5 -4.6 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-10 65 37 51.0 -1.5 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-11 74 45 59.5 6.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-12 83 55 69.0 15.7 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-13 86 56 71.0 17.4 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-14 84 57 70.5 16.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0

The problem was we didn't really have the cold air or precip for a snowstorm. The storms kept missing to the north. The cold and precip didn't really come together until the end of April, and by that point, it was too late for snow: 2023-04-28 56 49 52.5 -6.5 12 0 1.33 2023-04-29 61 49 55.0 -4.4 10 0 0.63 2023-04-30 63 52 57.5 -2.2 7 0 1.51 Like why couldn't we get a storm like this during the winter?

February 2018 was near record warm, but at least there was still some leftover cold from earlier in the season. Don't forget that we got some good cold and snows in late December 2017 and early January 2018. Years like 2009 and 2018 show that it can snow in March in the mid-Atlantic, despite the strong sun angle, but certain things have to be in place/come together to make it happen. It also helps that those years didn't have a +10 temperature departure for weeks on end like we had in January/February 2023.

I think here in the mid-Atlantic we end up with an above average temperature and below average snowfall winter, but we won't be too far from the averages. I think January will most likely be the above average month, as I think this will be the snow lull. December is going to be close to average, with a snow event early in the month. Most of the snow and cold will be during the first 3 weeks of February.

I am aware that the pattern started to change around February 25, and yes, there were storms in the last days of February and the beginning of March to the north. However, the warm ground and sun angle made it nearly impossible for snow to happen anywhere south of Newark/NYC, especially after the +10 temperature departures from January 1-February 23/24. The only way it was going to work is if everything fell into place like they did on March 1-2, 2009, and even then a snowstorm wasn't a guarantee. One big difference between 2009 and 2023 is that 2009 had leftover cold from October-January and a snowstorm in early February. We just had very little to no cold to work with in 2023. I know there's no guarantee it works out if the pattern change happened on December 25, rather than February 25. However, it would have bought us 2 more months for something to happen. Here, in the mid-Atlantic, the sun angle is low enough in January, it can snow even following a +10 departure in November/December. (2016 is a famous example.) But it's darn near impossible to snow in March following a +10 departure in January/February.

Or Mets/KC. That actually happened in 2015, and it was one of the lowest rated World Series ever. I bet the networks are praying that the Dodgers win Game 5. Mets/Padres NLCS would be an absolute ratings disaster.

The problem was the December one was way too short (it was gone by the end of the month) and the follow up in March took way too long to develop. By the time everything was in place for the cold, it was late April, early May - and it lasted until June - but it was too late for snow. However, the fact that the temperature departures were -2 to -4 in May and June (which is very rare for that time of year) shows that the potential was there. I think if the follow up block was the one in December instead, then the -3/-4 temperature departures would have taken place in January/February or February/March, which would have meant prime opportunities for snow (when it wasn't dry).

I highly doubt that we get a 22/23 type winter. If we do, then we've pretty reached a point of no return. In fact, I'm confident we get something closer to 20/21. The absolute worst case here (from NYC to the mid-Atlantic) is 07/08 [though, this was a very good winter in the midwest]. I think February will create the best chance for snow, and possibly a below average month. Also, don't count out a snow event in the first half of December.

Top 10 active hurricane seasons (through 2016) Rank Year Wunderground ACE Index NOAA ACE Index Average 1 2005 250 245.3 247.65 2 1933 213 258.57 235.785 3 1893 231 231.1475 231.0738 4 1995 228 227.1025 227.5513 5 1950 243 211.2825 227.1413 6 2004 227 226.88 226.94 7 1926 222 229.5575 225.7788 8 1961 205 188.9 196.95 9 1998 182 181.7675 181.8838 10 1955 199 158.17 178.585 2004 is the only one that led into an el nino. 1926 and 1961 were ENSO neutral. The rest led to la ninas. (This holds true even if 2017 and 2020 replace 1955 and 1998.)

I like 2020-21 as an analog due to the MEI/RONI match. Same with 2007-08. I also like 2016-17 as an analog due to the ONI/RONI match. Finally, I'd throw in 1998-99 due to the potential of a drought in the mid-Atlantic.

And now with Milton about to strike, I guess the JAS numbers will probably come out with the ASO numbers on 11/4.

Any reason why the NOAA hasn't updated the ONI and RONI numbers for July/August/September 2024 yet? The numbers are usually updated within the first 4 days of the month, and it's already October 7.

Although, the September/February temperature correlation has been solid here at PHL since 2006-07. In 17 of the last 18 years, when the September average temperature has been above 71, the following February's average temperature was also above 36, and when the September average temperature was below 71, the following February's temperature was also below 36. The only exception was 2008-09, when September 2008 finished at 70.4 and February 2009 finished at 37.1 (though we did get two 8-inch snowstorms in early February and March 1-2). September 2024 came in at 70.6, so that's a good omen for a cold and snowy February.

Unless we get a severe rain/mud storm (like we did in late October 2007), we're headed for our first drought since 2001-02.

I've said 2016 (15/7/4 with 140 ACE) was probably right around where we were going to end up.

ACY still got over a foot with that one. The January 28-29, 2022 snow map is eerily similar. Both were misses north and west of PHL, but the coast really got slammed. The last widespread 24-36" event was January 22-23, 2016.

If you lived near a coast, then 2017-18 (and maybe 2021-22) could have beaten out some of those years. Same with 1993-94 and 2020-21 for many areas north and west of PHL. The snow was just not as widespread in the Eastern US as many of those other listed years. [93-94 may not have been as snowy in most locations, but it was wall-to-wall widespread cold, and may have rivaled 95-96 in that regard.] Years like 10-11 and 13-14 were snowy no matter where you lived in the Eastern US.

Sorry, I can't see this happening. The only way this happens is if we have anywhere near a 13-14 solution this winter. For that to happen, as @snowman19pointed out, the PDO configuration and the North Pacific SSTs have to change very quickly for this scenario to even be viable. Even then, there's no guarantee even 2026-27 will be an el nino (just look what happened in 14-15, the el nino didn't really take off until the spring). We're still years away from the next el nino.

Oddly enough, since 2009-10, the September temperature has been an indicator of whether the upcoming February will be warmer than average, at least here at PHL. Sep 2009 - 68.0 Feb 2010 - 31.8 Sep 2010 - 72.9 Feb 2011 - 37.2 Sep 2011 - 71.1 Feb 2012 - 40.9 Sep 2012 - 70.3 Feb 2013 - 35.1 Sep 2013 - 67.9 Feb 2014 - 32.1 Sep 2014 - 70.5 Feb 2015 - 25.8 Sep 2015 - 74.5 Feb 2016 - 38.6 Sep 2016 - 73.5 Feb 2017 - 44.2 Sep 2017 - 71.4 Feb 2018 - 41.9 Sep 2018 - 72.5 Feb 2019 - 37.1 Sep 2019 - 72.5 Feb 2020 - 40.8 Sep 2020 - 69.4 Feb 2021 - 34.2 Sep 2021 - 71.6 Feb 2022 - 39.7 Sep 2022 - 72.1 Feb 2023 - 42.7 Sep 2023 - 71.4 Feb 2024 - 40.1 All the sub-71 Septembers (in bold) have produced a below average February. September 2024 is going to end below 71. If the trend continues, February 2025 temperature is going to be below average at PHL.

I don't think 20-21 is that bad of an analog. It's probably the best MEI/RONI match after 07-08. Things going against it are solar min (but so was 07-08) and that it was a hyperactive hurricane season. It isn't the top analog (07-08 is), but it's certainly in the next best ones along with 16-17 (great ONI/RONI match) and 98-99. I'd go 07-08, 16-17, and 20-21 as best analog years.

2016 ended with 15/7/4 and 140 ACE. I think those are the upper end numbers for this year.

07-08 is probably the top analog right now. That year, we had just the 2 big storms (Dean and Felix) like we do this year (Beryl and Helene). Also, the la nina development took off right about this time in 2007, and though we will likely not reach the ONI strength of that year, the MEI/RONI are a near perfect match. Not to mention, 07-08 was a central based, modoki la nina. Only thing really going against it was that 07-08 was near a solar minimum, while we are currently near a solar maximum. 22-23 was a dissipating la nina, which is opposite of what we have this year.

2015-16 is probably the closest thing to that. Record warm December by a wide margin, then one record-breaking snowstorm on January 22-23, and not much snow outside of that. The winter was bookended by a near record warm November and March.

Yeah, but then again, 2007 was also near a solar minimum. La nina forming during a solar maximum is very rare (1988-89 is probably the closest to one in the last 100 years). La ninas tend to form close to a solar minimum (1944, 1954, 1964, 1995, 2007, and 2020).

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months. My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).